France: Entry Gateways and Flows. Four Scenarios to 2040

This article is published in Futuribles journal no.391, déc. 2012

Within the framework of the series begun in May 2012, aimed at echoing the “Territories 2040” exercise launched in France by the DATAR in 2009, Nadine Cattan presents the lessons learned by the working group she chaired on “Entry Gateways to France and Territorial Flow Systems.” She begins by detailing the analytical framework within which the group worked: the definition of the different types of flows (linked to mobility and leisure, to the information and knowledge economy, to the economy and finance and, lastly, to energy needs and constraints) and the various categories of gateways related to those flows (“place-gateways” and “corridor-gateways”, “territory-gateways” and “network-gateways”, and, lastly, “individuals-gateways” and “objects-gateways”). Nadine Cattan then outlines the four major problematics at the heart of the foresight approach so far as these flow systems are concerned –territorialization, responsibility (in particular, the ability to regulate and control the territorial system), attractivity and vulnerability– together with the challenges associated with these. On this basis, 10 processes were identified that can explain the developmental dynamics of the system up to the year 2040. Using various combinations of these, four possible scenarios were identified: a “polarized” scenario characterized by a high degree of mobility at the global level, metropolization and high transport-related energy consumption; a “diluted” scenario involving a reduced quantity of journeys and a dematerialization of exchanges, but high levels of energy consumption within living spaces; an “archipelized” scenario, in which global space is structured around a number of large-scale autonomous nodes, long-haul mobility is limited and energy consumption low, but there are great inequalities; and, lastly, a “fluidified” scenario of a hypermobile, networked society, in which individual mobility increases enormously, but new territorial regulatory frameworks are required.
#Commerce #Communication #Énergie #Prospective #Prospective territoriale #Transport