Since 2004 the Vigie Report has been the flagship publication of Futuribles International, and the 2026 version was published at the beginning of the year. This 14th edition offers a conspectus of the major trends around which the future will be structured, dividing these into four broad fields: population and settlement patterns, climate and biodiversity, economy and resources, and geopolitics. These major trends are in many cases already well known and thoroughly studied (e.g. climate change), but in a segmented way. In foresight studies on which organizations base their strategic orientations, they are often cited as a backdrop but rarely laid out in precise detail nor sufficiently interconnected to foster useful thinking on their implications. This new Vigie Report aims to offset these failings by delving deeply into the major dynamics in play—dynamics that are unlikely to change and that imply profound upheavals in our conditions of existence in the years to 2050.
The coordinators of this study, Cécile Désaunay and François de Jouvenel provide here a broad overview of the 2026 edition, which is entitled Horizon 2050 : le monde face à ses limites. Tendances, choc des visions, scénarios [Horizon 2050: The World Hitting its Limits. Trends, Clash of Visions, Scenarios]. They remind us of the chief megatrends and major structural tendencies specific to the four fields (population and settlement patterns, climate and biodiversity, economy and resources, and geopolitics), as well as the future visions espoused by the actors in each of these areas looking ahead to 2050, showing the diversity of likely responses to the trends identified and their potential influence. Lastly, they present four scenarios that combine these different trends and explore the adaptation pathways that might be envisaged. An indispensable interpretive framework for understanding the trajectories developing within the 2050 time-horizon and for making appropriate preparations.
This article has been translated in English and you can download its translation.
