The Vigie Report 2026 was published in February by Futuribles International and in this issue we detail its contents. The report focuses on a series of megatrends that are shaping the future and on the scenarios that are likely to evolve around these major developments. On the heels of this report—in late April 2026—came another foresight endeavour also directed towards the study of megatrends crucial for the 21st century, in which the authors—largely from the Foundation 2100, the Société française de prospective [French Foresight Society] and the Plurality University Network—also offer a series of future scenarios. It is the major lessons to be drawn from these works, detailed in the book Scénarios pour le 21e siècle. Vers le pire ou le meilleur? [Scenarios for the 21st Century: Towards the Worst or the Best Outcome?] (Paris: Hermann, 2026) that are laid out here by Jean-Éric Aubert and Denis Lacroix.
After a review of the earlier foresight exercises that inspired their approach, their article outlines the six major types of megatrends identified, relating to the degradation of the biosphere, global demographic developments, technological change, geopolitical upheavals, how global economies are set to react to these changes and their consequences for societies. The authors then set out the various hypotheses adopted in these six areas, which they use to construct different pathways (branching structures) leading to six scenarios, three of them positive (techno-humanist, ‘symbiocene’, peaceful conditions and reasonable affluence) and three negative (a pluralist over‑armed world, techno-enslavement, and local and regional collapses). This foresight exercise, highlighting the prospect of developments toward “stagnant, disrupted and transformed societies”, offers a line of thought and a perspective complementary to the work presented in the Vigie Report 2026.
In a context of great (mainly geopolitical) instability, it confirms the importance for all our readers and for all those working in foresight and strategy, of taking account of these megatrends that are generally easier to anticipate.
The article is downloadable only in French. It is not available in English.
