Energy issues have been among the subjects most regularly discussed in Futuribles since its creation, from the twin angles of supply (production and corresponding industrial challenges) and demand (consumption and its limitation). This is, among other things, because energy lends itself particularly well to foresight approaches. Many studies have been presented in these columns, undertaken not only by energy companies (Shell, Total, EDF etc.) but also by independent institutions or organizations (the International Energy Agency, the French National Agency for Ecological Transition etc.). It is a feature of many such studies that, in order to produce scenarios, models are used in which the system evolves as a function of the variables deemed crucial. Among the emblematic energy modelling tools, the ‘Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems’ (POLES) model, developed in the 1990s enabled a handful of energy foresight studies to be produced. They offer an opportunity to look in the rear-view mirror and assess the model’s pertinence and value for public policy.
Patrick Criqui, who has contributed to many foresight studies in the energy field, particularly using the POLES model, presents the findings of that retrospective examination here. After situating POLES in the energy/climate modelling landscape, in a context of growing awareness of climate issues, he compares the visions of the future provided since 2005 with today’s observable reality—and also with scenarios produced more recently using the same model. This enables him to highlight both their value and their limitations, and also to show how the contribution of modelling has evolved over the decades (contribution to international climate negotiation, setting of climate targets, attention paid to technical change, fears over resource availability etc.). Above and beyond confirming the usefulness of this type of modelling, Criqui identifies the next challenges that need to be incorporated to take account, in such models, of the growing complexity of both the sociotechnical systems and the geopolitical framework.
The article is downloadable only in French. It is not available in English.
