According to the United Nations, on Tuesday 15 November 2022 the world population passed the eight billion mark. It has been growing at a steady rate for several decades, with an increase of one billion in 12 years and as many again to come in the next 15 years. This is largely the outcome of improved life expectancy, which is itself linked to advances in health, hygiene and food. But, in a world of limited resources facing all the challenges of climate change, such growth raises questions: can we meet the needs of so many inhabitants of Earth? And will this trend continue at the same rate on a sustained basis?
The publication this summer (2022) of the latest UN population estimates and prospects, both worldwide and regional, enables us to shed some light on the debate. Alain Parant has analysed these for Futuribles and outlines the main lessons here. After recalling the underlying trends since 1950 (continuous growth but at a slower rate; the factors of that growth; ageing; and regional dynamics), he outlines the patterns of development arrived at by the United Nations in respect of fertility, mortality and international migration. He also stresses that the spectrum of possible development remains very wide, since, depending on the variants selected, the global demographic peak veers between 8.4 billion (reached as early as 2054) and 14.8 billion (reached in 2100), with very different regional dynamics (Asia and Africa driving growth, in contrast to Europe and North America). Lastly, Parant compares these perspectives with some alternative studies that have hit the headlines in recent years (some of which go so far as to predict a decline from 2050 onwards, reducing the global population to 4 billion in 2100). In passing, he also underscores the importance of the quality of the indicators factored into this type of exercise.
