The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative is a collaborative work between faculty members and students. It aims to mitigate global existential risks (or ‘x-risks’), such as pandemics or nuclear proliferation. The possible cascading effects between x-risks is one of the main areas of research. In 2023, the third annual Stanford X-Risks Conference took place to present the research carried out as part of this initiative.
A vast majority of the articles introduced below deal with the cascading effects between x-risks. They do so through a variety of subjects (ecological collapse, artificial intelligence, nuclear risks, biosafety) and a multidisciplinary approach.
A publication (‘Expanding the Field of Existential Risk Studies’) summarises all the papers presented at the conference:
The first section of articles focuses on the identification and characterisation of x-risk typologies, and the related epistemological challenges:
- “Should Epistemic Security Be a Priority GCR [Global Catastrophic Risk] Cause Area?” by Elizabeth Seger: studies epistemic threats such as polarisation and disinformation.
- “Maniacs, Misanthropes, and Omnicidal Terrorists: Reassessing the Agential Risk Framework”, by Émile P. Torres: looks at the “agential” risks that arise when individuals who wish to destroy the world find themselves in a position to do so.
- “Psychological Fragility: An Overlooked Existential Risk”, by Dana Klisanin: explores the fragility of the human psyche.
- “Psychological and Psychosocial Consequences of Super Disruptive A.I.: Public Health Implications and Recommendations”, by David D. Luxton and Eleanor Watson: focuses on the psychosocial impacts of artificial intelligence (AI).
- “Science, Delusion, and Existential Risk”, by Andrew Nepomuceno: highlights the gap between beliefs and scientific realities, resulting in mass blindness and inaction.
- “An Axiology of Aesthetics for Existential Risk”, by Ishan Raval: is a plea for an aesthetic reading of the world and x-risks.
The second category of articles addresses wider implications of cascading x-risks:
- “Navigating Cascading Planetary Boundaries: A Framework to Secure the Future”, Thomas Cernev: argues that the transgression of planetary boundaries will exacerbate known global x-risks.
- “Anthropocene under Dark Skies: The Compounding Effects of Nuclear Winter and Overstepped Planetary Boundaries”, Florian Ulrich Jehn: focuses on risks cascade and the importance of the biosphere in the ability to survive a nuclear winter.
- “Is Climate Change Ungovernable”, Paul N. Edwards: calls for an understanding of the effects of climate change beyond 2100.
The third category of articles focuses on emerging technologies:
- “Investigating How Academic Researchers Engage with Dual-use Biosecurity Research”, Sofya Lebedeva: highlights the risks and benefits of current research into dual-use biosecurity.
- “Existential Risks Associated with Dual-use Technologies”, Ashok Vaseashta: calls for dual-use technologies limitation through ethical measures, regulatory frameworks and international cooperation.
- “Fairness in AI and Its Long-term Implications on Society”, by Ondrej Bohdal et al.,: highlights the predictive biases of most current AI systems.
- “The Looming Nuclear War”, Jean-Pierre Dupuy: reminds us that there is always the threat of nuclear war.
The fourth category of articles deals with the way in which x-risks can lessen:
- “Collective Intelligence as Infrastructure for Reducing Broad Global Catastrophic Risks”, by Vicky Yang and Anders Sandberg: shows the impact of governments and scientific communities cooperation.
- “Convergence on Existential Risk Policy”, by Philip Arthur: identifies points of convergence between the techno-utopian approach and the pluralist approach in the shorter term.
- “Governing Anthropogenic Existential Risks (Envisioning Some New Approaches)”, by Mariana Todorova: warns of the growing complexity and multiplication of risks, and encourages us to “de-ideologise” the future.
- “The Intergovernmental Panel on Global Catastrophic Risks”, R. Daniel Bressler and Jeff Alstott: advocates for the creation of an intergovernmental panel on x-risks.
- “Crisis Government’s Legitimacy Paradox: Foreseeability and Unobservable Success”, by Daniel D. Slate: warns against a short-termist reading of risks.
- “Scenarios 2075: The Cascading Risks Study”, Trond Arne Undheim: points out that humans face a myriad of technological, geopolitical and ecological risks, and proposes five scenarios for the future.
Reference: Undheim Trond Arne and Zimmer Daniel, “Expanding the Field of Existential Risk Studies”, in Intersections, Reinforcements, Cascades: Proceedings of the 2023 Stanford Existential Risks Conference, The Stanford Existential Risks Initiative / Stanford Digital Repository, 2023.
