What Prospects for 2010-2020?Conclusions of a Study by Futuribles International

Monitoring of the economy, also now called somewhat ambiguously economic intelligence, is currently in fashion, and for good reason. As a result, a growing number of firms and public authorities are equipping themselves with monitoring services, although these services rarely have the proper means to fulfil their aims. Futuribles is therefore keen to promote a system of mutual monitoring that would make it possible, on a co-operative and lasting basis, to identify and evaluate the main and emerging trends with regard to the international geostrategic and geo-economic situation, the medium and long-term prospects for different regions of the world (especially in Europe), the likely demographic, social, technological, economic and cultural developments, etc. For this purpose, in 2004 Futuribles International launched a subscription study on “the strategic environment for businesses between now and 2010 and 2020”, resulting in the production of a major report in November 2004. We publish here a brief summary of the report. The report is made up of two parts. The first presents twelve major issues selected by Futuribles and its collaborators; for each of these issues, assessments were made of the long-term dynamics, major trends and uncertainties were identified, and contrasting hypotheses or microscenarios were developed. In the second part, five scenarios were drawn up for 2010 and 2020, envisaging the possible futures that emerge for the world, Europe and France. These scenarios reveal that the outlook for France, unless there were a return to strong and lasting economic growth, is a risk of falling into lasting recession and, in the medium term, the economy faces major upheavals that are perhaps unavoidable, before being able in the longer run to shift into different growth paths.