In view of the procrastination and slow progress around international action on climate change, confirmed at the last Conference of the Parties (COP30) at Belém in late November 2025, it is highly probable that the frequency and intensity of climate catastrophes will continue to increase in France. Recent years have shown that there are very few French regions, both overseas and at home, to escape these kinds of risks: cyclones, mini-tornadoes, severe flooding, heatwaves, forest fires, coastal erosion etc. regularly make media headlines. And these extreme climate events produce substantial material and human damage, pushing the current insurance system to the limits of its ability to cope. Though the French model is particularly collective and solidarity-based, the preconditions for its effective functioning probably deserve re-examination.
This is what de Montaignac and Robinet do in this article, drawing on the research by the Haut-Commissariat à la Stratégie et au Plan (French High Commission for Strategy and Planning). After reviewing the context (increased claims/losses) and explaining precisely how France handles the indemnification of natural catastrophes, the authors examine the prospects for the system in the period to 2025. Given the vulnerabilities identified and the very unequal impact of natural catastrophes, depending on the geographical locations and social groups affected, they argue that the system of insurance provision should be overhauled. Three scenarios are presented for stronger preventive action and a better pooling of climate risks: a slight increase in state regulation of the climate-risk insurance market; the state acting as backstop for all climate risks; or the state providing insurance against those risks as part of a climate-related Social Security programme.
The article is downloadable only in French. It is not available in English.
