After the publication in late 2021 of the Demographic Prospects for France, which came out of the revised projections of the French National Statistical Institute (INSEE), Alain Parant pointed out in this journal that the underlying assumptions were distinctly less optimistic than in earlier projections. Following the release of France’s 2024 demographic profile, he confirms that the country is now on the same track as its European neighbours with a combination of population-ageing and a marked downturn in fertility. If France appeared, until the 2010s, to be an exception, with genuinely dynamic birthrate figures that almost amounted to generation renewal, things have changed over the last 15 years and fertility is now falling. Is this a temporary phenomenon or the beginning of a more significant, long-term trend presaging possible demographic decline? Alain Parant examines the latest INSEE demographic assessment and shows the lessons that may be drawn on French population change over the longer term, when combined with the assumptions underlying INSEE’s projections for 2021-2070.
The article is downloadable only in French. It is not available in English.
