What if tomorrow, in a world of dwindling water resources, the technique of cloud seeding triggered a war between two countries? What if, tomorrow, an accumulation of silver iodide in the soil (linked to seeding) were to cause an erosion of biodiversity and new health scandals? And what if tomorrow we put too much faith in geo-engineering techniques to combat climate change?
March 29 is now the International Cloud Day. It has been since 2022, at the initiative of writer Mathieu Simonet. One of its aims is to raise awareness of the fact that there is (almost) no legislation governing the manipulation of clouds, despite the fact that the legal and ecological issues surrounding this manipulation are extremely important and could become a source of conflict in the future.
The first cloud seeding techniques date back to the 1940s, and involve making clouds merge and grow. To do this, products had to be artificially introduced into the cloud, most often silver iodide, but various techniques still exist.
The United States used this technique during the Vietnam War to slow the advance of opposing troops by causing flooding. In 1976, in response to this use, the United Nations banned environmental modification techniques for military purposes with the ENMOD Convention. From that date onwards, it was forbidden to rain down clouds for ‘hostile’ purposes. However, the hostile nature of a manipulation is sometimes difficult to demonstrate; in 1986, the USSR is said to have seeded clouds following the Chernobyl accident to make it rain over Belarus in order to protect Moscow from radioactive rain.
Today, a country can do whatever it wants with the clouds that cross its airspace, and in many countries, research programmes and experiments are multiplying. China has invested colossal sums of money in these techniques, to influence the weather during the Beijing Olympics in 2008, for example, or to combat drought. In 2020, it announced its intention to deploy its cloud seeding programme, which until then had been tested on a very targeted basis, over half of its territory by 2025, with the aim of avoiding the droughts and hailstorms that can affect its agricultural production. The Gulf States are also using seeding techniques using electric discharges sent into the clouds. In France, an association called ANELFA (Association nationale d’étude et de lutte contre les fléaux atmosphériques) is developing research in this field with the aim of combating the hail that damages vineyards.
In a podcast recorded for France Culture, Mathieu Simonet and climatologist Olivier Boucher point out that, for the time being, the effectiveness of these techniques remains highly controversial. It is extremely difficult to know whether rain from a seeded cloud would not have existed without this seeding. Nevertheless, this technique raises at least two questions for the future: the property of the water it contains and the impact of the products used.
- The property of water: while this may seem a trivial subject today, it raises the question of whether, in the years to come, as water resources become increasingly scarce, there might not be a risk of conflicts between neighbouring countries over the ownership of rain. Indeed, if a country decides to ‘make it rain’ on its territory, it may be ‘stealing’ rain that would have fallen later in a neighbouring country. There is a precedent for this between Iran and Israel.
- The impact of the products used: in large quantities, silver iodide is dangerous for biodiversity, particularly in aquatic environments. An English study carried out by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in the early 2000s revealed that silver iodide, below a certain concentration, is not toxic for the environment, but this substance is described as “extremely insoluble”: the risk is therefore that it accumulates and can be harmful over the long term.
According to Mathieu Simonet, the debate is open as to what status should be given to clouds: should they be included in the UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation) World Heritage List? Or give them a legal personality, as is currently the case for some rivers? One thing is certain, according to the writer: we must take an interest in the subject and, if not ban, at least regulate these geo-engineering practices to avoid a possible butterfly effect in the years to come.
To find out more:
- Mathieu Simonet’s book on this subject La Fin des nuages (Paris: Julliard, 2023)
- A drama by Laurie Grzesiak for Protocole 42 about clouds becoming a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
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N.B.: this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.
