"Scénarios Europe 2010" : mise au point. Une réponse aux critiques de Michel Godet

In the issue of Futuribles for October 1999 (n° 246), we published an article by Gilles Bertrand, Anna Michalski and Lucio R. Pench which presented an outline of the five “scenarios for Europe in 2010” drawn up by the Forward Studies Unit (FSU) of the European Commission.
In an article entitled “Futures Studies in Search of Greater Rigour” published in this journal in January 2000 (Futuribles n° 249), Michel Godet first protested about the claims made by the FSU with regard to the methodology used, as well as about the criticisms of the “French School of futurology”, then he challenged the overall likelihood of the scenarios selected by the FSU.
Jean-Claude Thébault, Director of the FSU, replies here to Michel Godet’s criticisms. He sets the record straight on three main points: first, the methodology used by the FSU to build the scenarios (in particular, the method called “Shaping Actors, Shaping Factors”) and its sources; second, the plausibility of the five chosen scenarios, and here Jean-Claude Thébault criticizes Michel Godet’s attack on their motives and explains the reasons for choosing the scenarios. Finally, the author restates the principal aims of the FSU: “to take a longer term view in thinking about Europe and contribute to public debate about the future”.