What is to be Done with Belarus?

Belarus, which faces serious economic problems and has been ruled with a rod of iron by a dictator-president in power since 1994, is, like Ukraine, one of those “hinge-countries” between the European Union and Russia. For this reason, both the European Union and Russia regard their relations with the former Soviet republic as essential for regional security.
Yet, from the EU’s point of view, given its rather weakly asserted national identity – an identity that is, ultimately, almost assimilated into that of its Russian neighbour – and its anachronistic and, by European standards, unacceptable political regime, Belarus remains a rather embarrassing partner. In an economic context of decline, Belarus continues to lean (increasingly) towards Moscow, the main provider of economic assistance (most importantly through its energy supplies), which is, for its part, wavering between the maintenance of the status quo and the former republic’s reincorporation into the Russian federation. This latter option would not perhaps scandalize the European Union, with the notable exception of Belarus’s Polish neighbour, which currently holds the presidency of the Union. It remains to be seen what Belarus’s citizens themselves think of it, assuming, of course, that it were possible to consult them democratically…