Le futur a-t-il changé ?

How has the way the French perceive the future changed over the years? In essence, say the authors of this article, it is striking to observe how far attitudes to the future vary according to current circumstances…
Jacques Antoine and Marie-Thérèse Antoine-Paille review the public opinion surveys about the future conducted in France in the second half of the 20th century. These show that:
– during the so-called “30 good years” (1945-1975), the French had an optimistic view of the year 2000, and looked forward to a golden age;
– during the “lean years” (1975-1995), by contrast, their perception switched completely and gave way to a general “fear of the year 2000”.
The authors then reflect on what factors might explain the revival of optimism observed since 1997. They argue that it arises from the improvement in the economic situation (including the launch of the euro), the start of a favourable period in politics (marked by the “cohabitation” of a Right-wing President and a Left-wing government in France), as well as happy events, above all the French team winning the football World Cup.
The French, according to the authors, have regained their self-confidence, in part because of generational change: the new generation of adults was born around the time of the first oil crisis.
Is this revival of optimism likely to last? Their answer is mixed: they say that “the images of the future can never again be what they were in 1950 or even in 1980”, and, although trust in scientific progress is now seriously undermined, the main reason for French optimism today depends mainly on the situation of the economy and the environment.
Lastly, the authors outline four scenarios for how public opinion will evolve. In their view, this will ultimately be shaped by the same two factors: the economy and the environment.