After a lean period, air traffic is enjoying a spectacular rebound, on a par with the brutal collapse it suffered during the Covid crisis in 2020 (down 60%[1] ). In the longer term, however, the sector’s growth could be slowed by the end of the post-pandemic cycle and the rise of climate regulations.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), it takes civil air transport an average of five years to recover the traffic lost during a crisis. With traffic growth expected to reach 3% in 2024 compared with 2019, the upturn in activity is encouraging.[2] For aircraft manufacturers and airports, the economic equation is slightly different, but here too the results are very encouraging. This was demonstrated at the 2023 International Paris Air Show, where airlines filled the order books of the two largest aircraft manufacturers, with more than 1,000 aircraft sold.[3]
A recovering market
Against this backdrop, the aviation giants are forecasting robust growth and a doubling of fleets to 48,575 aircraft by 2040. IATA estimates that global traffic could reach 7.2 billion passengers by 2035 and 10 billion by 2050, compared with 4.5 billion in 2019 (Figure 1). Traffic could double in Europe, increase by a factor of 2.5 in South America and by a factor of 3.25 in Asia-Pacific.
This optimistic outlook can be explained both by the growth potential of several emerging countries and by the continuing real desire of consumers in Western countries to fly. In addition, the growth in the number of aircraft orders can be explained by the cyclical effects of Western airlines, which are obliged to renew their fleets at least every 25 years. However, other factors could constrain the sector’s structural growth.
