At the beginning of April 2025, the insurance group Axa published its latest foresight report (What if… We Experienced the Future?), built this year around 10 ‘what if’ scenarios.
The first part of the report identifies five megatrends for the future: climate change, geopolitical mutations, social fragmentation, demographics and technologies.
On this basis, 10 ‘what if?’ scenarios were constructed, i.e. disruptive scenarios of different kinds, proposed by pairs made up of a risk expert from the Axa Group and an external author. Most of the report is devoted to their analysis: visual, with a three-page description of the scenario following a specific graphic charter; and audio, with a soundtrack to immerse you in its universe.
The 10 scenarios identified are as follows:
- What if our water was not safe anymore?
- What if the world order crumbled?
- What if globalised pop culture disappeared in favour of local and hybrid cultures?
- What if space debris turned off the lights?
- What if microplastics played a role in infectious cancers in animals?
- What if cafés and bars were still a thing in 2045 France?
- What if artificial intelligence warmed up the world?
- What if a tsunami hit the Atlantic coasts?
- What if Europe successfully designed a post-growth operating manual?
- What if psychiatric disorders were recognised as inflammatory diseases?
Each scenario is described with a specific time horizon (between 2035 and 2065), a triggering event and a degree of probability.
Graphic representation of the 10 what if scenarios
Source: What if… We Experienced the Future? Axa Foresight Report 2025, Paris: Axa, April 2025, 70 p. (chart, p. 5).
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N.B.: this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.
