Cédric Philibert began his speech on the mining resources of the energy transition,[1] on 24 November 2024, by pointing out that this energy transition has already begun: while there is no substitution yet between renewable and fossil energies on a global scale, there is a marked slowdown in the growth in demand for fossil fuels. This will lead to an increase in demand for certain metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, lithium and rare earths.
Philibert Cédric, “Des ressources minières de la transition énergétique [About the mining resources of the energy transition]”, presentation at the National Days of the APBG (Association des professeurs de biologie et de géologie / French Association of Biology and Geology Teachers), Paris, 24 November 2024, 1h22.
Current situation and outlook for demand
Many technologies and infrastructures need these metals, not least batteries and electricity grids. In its Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), the International Energy Agency (IEA) is attempting to project how demand for metals for electricity production and storage will develop between now and 2040. This growth would be massive: a factor of 42 for lithium, 25 for graphite, 21 for cobalt, 19 for nickel and 7 for rare earths. But when we compare this increase with the growth in demand in other sectors of the economy, the growth in overall demand appears to be much less.
For example, demand for copper linked to the transition would increase by a factor of 5, but overall it would “only” double. Along with iron and gold, copper is one of the three metals most in demand in the world today (80% of metal concentrate extraction), and the increase in demand for copper uses unrelated to the energy sector is likely to remain stable. Other metals, such as lithium, should see their overall demand increase very sharply, but they currently account for a very small proportion of mining, since they have few uses apart from those required for transition technologies. Copper and, to a lesser extent, nickel appear to be the main drivers of transition-related mining demand (expressed in tonnage), as is iron, because of the need for steel, even if transition only increases overall demand for steel by 2% to 3%.
