Against a background of serious international tensions, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the role of nuclear deterrence is back on the agenda, with Vladimir Putin in particular talking about the use of nuclear weapons. In this book (Pax Atomica: Theory, Practice and Limits of Deterrence) Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, explains the principles of nuclear deterrence and asks the question: can the atomic bomb prevent serious conflicts?
Nuclear weapons were only used in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 (after a successful test in New Mexico in July 1945), followed by Japan’s surrender.[1] Today, nine states — the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea — use deterrence in different ways, with the author listing seven, ranging from general and immediate deterrence to indirect deterrence (threats aimed at a state’s allies). In his first chapter, he reminds us that deterrence, particularly nuclear one, is a psychological process: the use of a serious threat against a potential adversary, who is assumed to be capable of rationality in order to measure the extent of the damage to which he is exposing himself. It is more of an art than a science, and “more akin to a game of poker than a game of chess”. It is based on credible means (weapons, delivery systems, intelligence and command resources) and on a stated intention to use them, but with a calculated vagueness so that the adversary cannot assess the damage he
