On the eve of the election of the 47th president of the United States, the very latest opinion polls reported by the New York Times (3rd November 2024) suggested that the two candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were neck-and-neck, with perhaps a very slight lead for the Democratic candidates that was, including in the key swing states, within the ‘margin of error’. However, on the day after the actual poll, it turned out that Donald Trump had won the election comfortably. Why is this? Whereas most economists were stressing the felicitous growth of American GDP and a reduced level of unemployment, the Republican candidate had essentially campaigned on lowering taxes and creating new fiscal loopholes. In doing so, he was doubtless relying on Americans’ subjective impressions and not on economic indicators. Doesn’t an explanation of this kind, though something of a simplification, explain many other electoral outcomes?
After the June 2024 legislative elections in France, Gilbert Cette and Olivier Galland co-wrote an article entitled “Is There a Purchasing Power Problem in France?”, in which they generally extolled the country’s high levels of economic performance by comparison with its European neighbours. Olivier Galland then published another article in late August 2024, “Purchasing Power and Well-being: the French Enigma”, which we reprint here, since it casts a very interesting light on the gap there can be between facts and popular impressions. This doesn’t mean that the statistical data are wrong nor that opinion surveys would be more relevant, but it shows that felt impressions are an important factor in the choices made by voters.
The article is downloadable only in French. It is not available in English.
