Article
Determination of the Uncertainties in S-curve Logistic Fits
et
,
« Determination of the Uncertainties in S-curve Logistic Fits »,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change,
1994,
p. 21-21.
Look-up tables and graphs are provided for determining the uncertainties during logistic fits, on the three parameters M, ß anf t° describing an S-curve. The uncertainties and the associated confidence level are given as a function of the uncertainty on the data points and the lenght of the historical period. Correlation between these variables are also examined ; they make "what-if" games possible even before doing the fit. The study is based on some 35 000 S-curve fits on simulated data ...
(encore 52 mots)
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