{"id":97186,"date":"2024-07-03T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/perturbations-a-lhorizon\/"},"modified":"2024-08-29T11:06:21","modified_gmt":"2024-08-29T09:06:21","slug":"perturbations-a-lhorizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/perturbations-a-lhorizon\/","title":{"rendered":"Disruptions on the Horizon"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Policy Horizons Canada, the Canadian government\u2019s foresight centre, has just published a report entitled Perturbations \u00e0 l\u2019horizon [Disruptions on the Horizon]<\/em>, available in both French<\/a> and English<\/a>, which provides a brief overview (around 40 pages) of a series of 35 disruptions that will, or could, occur in the coming years. The aim of this work is to help decision-makers select the disruptions they should anticipate as a priority.<\/h6>
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Policy Horizons Canada,<\/span> Disruptions on the Horizon: 2024 Report<\/em>, Policy Horizons Canada, April 2024, 37 p.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n \n See this publication\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n \"\"\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n

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Methodology<\/h2>\n

As a first step, the Policy Horizons team compiled a list of 35 plausible disruptions based on a literature review, interviews with experts and policymakers, and workshops with futurists. This list of disruptions has been classified into five areas: society, the economy, the environment, politics\/geopolitics and health. Each was described in a few lines, in the present tense, as if it had already happened. They were then submitted to a panel of 500 foresight experts in the form of a survey asking them, for each of them, to assess the probability of the disruption occurring, the impact it could have, the possible time horizon for its occurrence; and then to give their opinion on the interconnections within subsets of disruptions. The results of the survey are then presented graphically according to these different criteria. Eighteen key disruptions likely to have a significant impact on Canada (and beyond) are detailed. But the authors also point to eight disruptions that they feel are under-anticipated in the survey, but which they also feel deserve particular attention.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Summary – Vigie 2020 Report<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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15 January 2021<\/div>\n FUTURIBLES INTERNATIONAL<\/a>\n
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\n Top 10 disruptions\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Reading: <\/em>this figure shows the top 10 disruptions, those that have the highest combined likelihood and impact. They are mapped on a timeline according to when the disruption could occur.
\nSource: <\/em>Horizons Canada.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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Results<\/h2>\n

As the report is very accessible and easy to read, we are not going to detail all the results here, but simply highlight a few key points.<\/p>\n

The most likely disruption is also the one that is expected to occur most quickly, within three years: \u201cPeople cannot tell what is true and what is not\u201d. The disruption with the greatest impact would be the outbreak of another world war. Above all, the decline in biodiversity and the collapse of ecosystems are ranked second both in terms of probability and impact; the experts estimate that this disruption could occur within seven years.<\/p>\n

In terms of economic disruption, the most likely is: \u201cPeople cannot afford to live on their own\u201d. In terms of health, we note that the collapse of healthcare systems is the third most likely disruption, and that a mental health crisis is in the top\u00a010 most likely disruptions.<\/p>\n

Under-anticipated disruptions include antimicrobial resistance, the possibility of a civil war breaking out in the United States, and immigrants not choosing Canada.<\/p>\n

The report gives just one example of a interconnected disruptions (p. 24). It links in particular the unleashing of artificial intelligence, cyberattacks, disinformation, democratic systems breakdown and \u201cBillionaires run the world\u201d.<\/p>\n

Although 18 disruptions are considered to be key and eight as under-anticipated, all 35 are described and we can, for example, identify, among the remaining nine, hypotheses that do not seem to have to be totally disregarded \u2014\u00a0some of which, moreover, appear in the interconnection systems. One example is \u201cAgeing population has no support\u201d.<\/p>\n

This very concise report seems well suited to its purpose, which is to challenge political decision-makers and encourage them to take action. It may provide food for thought for futurists, given the breadth of the panorama covered, but its somewhat superficial treatment of the issues may also leave them wanting more. It points to the risk of a deterioration in mental health, but will do little to improve that of its readers, given that the disruptions described seem so realistic, so close, so bleak.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n De-risking: a new concept in the spotlight<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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3 January 2024<\/div>\n PAGLIA Morgan<\/a>\n
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\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Newswatch\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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N.B.: this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Policy Horizons Canada, the Canadian government\u2019s foresight centre, has just published a report entitled Perturbations \u00e0 l\u2019horizon [Disruptions on the Horizon], available in both French and English, which provides a brief overview (around 40 pages) of a series of 35 disruptions that will, or could, occur in the coming years. The aim of this work is … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":97193,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[131],"tags":[133,202,203,212],"keyword":[2339,1303,983,2338,1519,865],"class_list":["post-97186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-read-seen-heard","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-environnement-en","tag-geopolitique-en","tag-societe-en","keyword-anticipation-en","keyword-experts-en","keyword-prospective-en","keyword-politiques-publiques-en","keyword-ruptures-en","keyword-strategie-methode-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97186"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97186\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":97213,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97186\/revisions\/97213"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97186"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=97186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}