{"id":97147,"date":"2024-07-04T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-04T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/tensions-commerciales-chine-ue-sur-les-importations-de-vehicules-electriques\/"},"modified":"2024-10-31T11:35:15","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T10:35:15","slug":"tensions-commerciales-chine-ue-sur-les-importations-de-vehicules-electriques","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/tensions-commerciales-chine-ue-sur-les-importations-de-vehicules-electriques\/","title":{"rendered":"China\/EU trade tensions over electric vehicle imports"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
In June 2024, the European Commission delivered the initial conclusions<\/a> of its investigation into the subsidy practices of the Chinese central and local governments to producers of electric vehicles (EVs). It considered that the nature and level of this support constituted an obstacle to free and undistorted competition on international markets, and provisionally adopted a massive increase in customs tariffs, which could reach 30% to 50% of the price of imported vehicles depending on the manufacturer (compared with 10% today). These protectionist measures apply both to Chinese brands and to foreign (including European) producers and assemblers operating in China as part of joint-ventures. On the other hand, Chinese brands producing outside China would not be subject to these tariffs.<\/h6>\n\n\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n

The Commission\u2019s decision follows that taken by US President Joe Biden to massively increase tariffs on a range of Chinese products and components deemed strategic for the energy and digital transitions. Imports of electric vehicles are subject to high tariffs (100%), as are the batteries and metals used in their production (up to 25 %).<\/p>\n

The European Commission therefore appears to be aligning itself with the US position of increasing trade retaliation against China, but its motives differ because of a markedly different commercial and industrial context. In the United States, imports of Chinese-brand electric vehicles are currently insignificant. In contrast, the share of Chinese-made electric vehicles in European Union (EU) imports has risen sharply in recent years. Virtually nil in 2019, it reached 20% in 2023, all brands combined, and more than a third of these imports were Chinese brands, a share that is rising sharply. In its projections, the association Transport & Environment estimates<\/a> that Chinese models could account for 20% of battery-electric vehicle sales by 2027. More exposed to Chinese competition, some European manufacturers are also more dependent on the Chinese market: a third of Germany\u2019s car exports go to China.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

\n
\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
\n
\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n The United States and China: An Unbalanced Techno-Commercial Confrontation?<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
\n
5 October 2023<\/div>\n SEAMAN John<\/a>\n
\n 7 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Interview\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n

\n \n <\/p>\n

\n Share of the battery-electric vehicles market in EU sales: breakdown by make, and projection to 2027\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

\n \"\"\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Source: \u201c<\/em>How Europe Can Use Tariffs as Part of an Industrial Strategy<\/a>\u201d, Transport & Environment, 27 March 2024.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
\n

The tariffs proposed by the Commission are not the result of a formal procedure initiated at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The international institution is still paralysed by the American block on the appointment of judges to the Appellate Body, which renders the mechanism for settling trade disputes ineffective. However, the European Commission believes that it is acting in accordance with the principles of multilateralism, as part of a transparent investigation aimed at proving the current or imminent harm caused to its domestic industry by Chinese subsidies.<\/p>\n

In response, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said<\/a> that his country \u201creserves the right to lodge a complaint with the WTO and will take all necessary measures to firmly defend the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies\u201d. Beijing\u2019s first official response was to launch an antidumping investigation into imports of pork products<\/a> from the EU.<\/p>\n

The increase in customs tariffs proposed by the Commission could become definitive in November 2024, if the Member States of the European Council agree by qualified majority. But a compromise agreement between the EU and China cannot be ruled out until then.<\/p>\n

The threat posed by \u2018overcapacity\u2019 in the Chinese automotive industry has been a central element in the debate on increased protectionism against China. But what is the reality? Is there really a massive stock of Chinese vehicles ready to be dumped on international markets at knock-down prices? Is Europe particularly at risk?<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

\n
\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
\n
\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n What contribution can e-fuels make to decarbonising transport?<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
\n
9 November 2023<\/div>\n LAMBLIN V\u00e9ronique<\/a>\n
\n 7 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Newswatch\n <\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Science and Technology<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n

A recent explosion in Chinese vehicle exports, production overcapacity limited to internal combustion models<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, China became the world\u2019s leading exporter of automobiles, overtaking the industry\u2019s historic champions, Germany and Japan. More than one in two electric cars sold worldwide in 2023 was sold in China, where the share of electric models in car sales reached almost 40% that year. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China is the only region where the purchase price of a new electric car has reached, on average, parity with an equivalent internal combustion vehicle (including without purchase subsidies).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As electric vehicles penetrate the Chinese market, domestic outlets for combustion-powered models are gradually being replaced. Only 14 million combustion engine vehicles were sold in China in 2024, 10 million fewer than in 2018. China\u2019s industrial capacity for producing combustion engines is estimated at 40 million vehicles<\/a>, so the surplus could be exported. At the same time, sales of electric vehicles (including hybrids) have increased eightfold over the last three years and could reach eight million by 2024. Only 8% of the Chinese car fleet was electrified in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, around 20% of the cars produced in the country were exported, a proportion that has risen since 2020, but is much lower<\/a> than in other regions (50% in Japan, 75% in Germany or South Korea). But the sheer size of China\u2019s production base means that we need to focus on the volume of cars exported to understand the scale of China\u2019s export breakthrough. Nearly five million cars could be exported by 2024, a five-fold increase since 2021; 40% of these vehicles are electric, and the proportion is rising<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n

\n \n <\/p>\n

\n Change in the export share of annual automotive production in several countries, 2018-2023 (in %)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

\n \"\"\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Source: <\/em>Hancock<\/span> Tom, \u201cUS-Europe Gripes on China Overcapacity Aren\u2019t all Backed by Data<\/a>\u201d, Bloomberg, 3 April 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
\n

Chinese exports of internal combustion models have tripled since the war in Ukraine, benefiting from the strengthening of trade relations with Russia at a time when local car production has collapsed as a result of the conflict. Moscow is now China\u2019s leading market. The European and North American markets appear to be in the minority.<\/p>\n

When it comes to electric cars, Europe accounts for two-thirds of China\u2019s exports, followed by the Asia-Pacific region and North America. Since 2021, European imports have increased sixfold, with China becoming the leading exporter to the EU. More than the saturation of local outlets, it is the prospect of higher margins abroad that is driving<\/a> exports of electric models.<\/p>\n

The idea that Chinese vehicles are exported at knock-down prices to invade Western markets is not borne out by manufacturers\u2019 commercial practices. While Chinese vehicles sold in China are priced well below those of European manufacturers, Chinese models exported to the Old Continent are sold at high margins. This is the case with BYD\u2019s Seagull<\/em>, an entry-level electric city car available for less than \u20ac10,000 on the Chinese market, but which is expected to sell for nearly \u20ac20,000<\/a> on the European market, a similar price to affordable European vehicles such as the Dacia Spring <\/em>or the Citro\u00ebn \u00cb-C3<\/em>.<\/p>\n

According to a report by the Rhodium Group<\/a>, tariffs of up to 40%-50% would be necessary to make European markets unattractive to Chinese manufacturers, and even more so for vertically integrated manufacturers such as BYD. If applied, the Commission\u2019s measures could therefore have the main effect of squeezing the margins of car exporters from China, rather than slowing import volumes.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

\n
\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
\n
\n \n The Demand for Critical Metals Associated with Electric-powered Transport<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
\n
26 April 2024<\/div>\n LAMBLIN V\u00e9ronique<\/a>\n
\n 11 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Signposts\n <\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Science and Technology<\/a>\n Society<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

This analysis does not attempt to state whether the European Commission\u2019s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese vehicles is justified or desirable. It is the result of a complex trade-off between protecting the domestic automotive industry, encouraging decarbonisation of the transport sector through access to affordable products, and preventing escalation into a trade war.<\/p>\n

However, these tariffs can be circumvented by importing vehicles from regions benefiting from more advantageous free trade agreements, including European countries. If the massive increase in Chinese vehicle imports continues, there is a risk of a spiral of trade retaliation, with the geographical scope and components subject to tariffs expanding, as is the case in the United States.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

\n
\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
\n
\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n What Should the EU\u2019s Strategy Be for Economic Security?<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
\n
26 June 2024<\/div>\n FABRY Elvire<\/a>\n
\n 20 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013
N.B.: this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In June 2024, the European Commission delivered the initial conclusions of its investigation into the subsidy practices of the Chinese central and local governments to producers of electric vehicles (EVs). It considered that the nature and level of this support constituted an obstacle to free and undistorted competition on international markets, and provisionally adopted a … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":92233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[140],"tags":[133,203],"keyword":[1216,953,1219,1251,1145,841,845,1034],"class_list":["post-97147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newswatch","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-geopolitique-en","keyword-indautomobile-en","keyword-chine-en","keyword-politique-commerciale-en","keyword-transition-en","keyword-energie-electrique-en","keyword-union-europeenne-en","keyword-commerce-international-en","keyword-protectionnisme-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97147"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97147\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99186,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97147\/revisions\/99186"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97147"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=97147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}