{"id":96070,"date":"2024-04-10T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-10T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/lacceleration-de-lhistoire\/"},"modified":"2024-10-31T14:27:45","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T13:27:45","slug":"lacceleration-de-lhistoire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/lacceleration-de-lhistoire\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019Acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l\u2019histoire"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Following L\u2019Affolement du monde<\/em><\/a> [The World in Turmoil]<\/em> (French Geopolitical Book Prize 2019), Guerres invisibles<\/em><\/a> [Invisible Wars] <\/em>(2021) and Les Ambitions inavou\u00e9es<\/em><\/a> [Unspoken Ambitions] <\/em>(2023),[1]<\/a><\/sup> Thomas Gomart\u2019s new geostrategic opus <\/em>takes to the sea. L\u2019Acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l\u2019histoire. Les n\u0153uds g\u00e9ostrat\u00e9giques d\u2019un monde hors de contr\u00f4le [The Acceleration of History: The Geostrategic Nodes of a World out of Control]<\/em> explores the situation in three straits: the Strait of Formosa (between the People\u2019s Republic of China and Taiwan), the Strait of Hormuz (between Oman, the United Arab Emirates and the Islamic Republic of Iran) and the Bosporus (gateway to the Black Sea). As bottlenecks in global supply chains, these crossroads are destined to be catalysts for major geopolitical transformations, which are accelerating at an astonishing rate in the current period.<\/h6>
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Gomart<\/span> Thomas, L\u2019Acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l\u2019histoire. Les n\u0153uds g\u00e9ostrat\u00e9giques d\u2019un monde hors de contr\u00f4le, <\/em>Paris: Tallandier, January 2024, 176 p.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n \n \n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n \"\"\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n

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The author, Director of IFRI (the French Institute of International Relations), identifies two current shifts and their impact on these \u201cgeostrategic nodes\u201d.<\/p>\n

First shift: Chinese power has reached maturity<\/h2>\n

At the heart of numerous networks, China is now in a position to project global ambitions. In the future, it will be helped by the melting of the ice and the opening up of the sea route north of Russia. Far from being insignificant, this climatic transformation should give Taiwan access to the Atlantic via a route beyond American control, an unprecedented phenomenon. But in the shorter term, Taiwan is clearly the catalyst for Sino-American rivalry.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n China\/USA: Avoiding Conflict<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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26 December 2022<\/div>\n FERNANDEZ Justine<\/a>\n
\n 10 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The consequences of a conflict could extend beyond the Straits of Formosa, starting with the Korean peninsula, as revealed, for example, in March 2023 by the reaction of a Japanese admiral whom the author met at a seminar of experts organised in Tokyo. He put the risk of a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait by 2027 at four out of five, adding that \u201cthe war in Ukraine is legitimising the North Korean programme\u201d.[2]<\/a><\/sup> We therefore need to revise our analytical grids to determine how, as a result of a runaway effect, the world could tip over into an era of particularly violent conflicts.<\/p>\n

According to Thomas Gomart, the first step forward could be to stop looking at Asia in terms of our European-centric representations and, instead, imagine the China Seas as an \u201cAsian Mediterranean\u201d. The author borrows this notion from Fran\u00e7ois Gipouloux[3]<\/a><\/sup> to emphasise that, despite the distances, the people living around the China Seas share the same space of historical representations and common socio-economic links; networks that it is crucial to understand if we are to better understand \u2014 and react to \u2014 the events taking place in the region.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n What Future for Taiwan? Sino-Taiwanese Relations: Divergent Perspectives<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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27 April 2020<\/div>\n CAVALLI In\u00e8s<\/a>\n
\n 8 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Forum\n <\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n Society<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Second shift: regional powers and their desire for emancipation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to the author, the regional powers are rushing into a space opened up \u201cby the loss of moral authority of the Western countries and, in particular, the United States, which have constantly resorted to sanctions against their competitors, while, when they felt it necessary, dispensing with international law to achieve their objectives\u201d. This trend is part of a new form of globalisation \u2014 nationalised, transactional and assertive \u2014 resulting from cooperative logics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, \u201cinterdependencies are multiplying while at the same time becoming dependent on coercive logics\u201d. The acceleration of history is taking the form of bloody conflicts that are multiplying, particularly in the regions bordering the Straits, strategic crossroads and veritable bottlenecks for global supply chains. Between the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 through which 20% to 30% of the world\u2019s crude oil passes every year \u2014 and the Bosporus, where global wheat exports have tripled in 20 years to reach more than 30% before the 2022 invasion, \u201cexistential wars\u201d are intertwined, directly involving Ukraine and Russia, as well as Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Israel and Hamas, and indirectly many other players. In addition to the fact that these conflicts leave the belligerents with collective traumas[4]<\/a><\/sup> \u2014 and are therefore destined to last \u2014 there is, according to Thomas Gomart, \u201ca non-negligible risk of losing collective control of these strategic straits through a runaway effect\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faced with this situation, the Director of IFRI questions the responsibility of the players who, by contrast, have been taken by surprise by history. In particular, he highlights the relative indifference of Europeans, whom he deems to be \u201cout of step\u201d. Pointing out that despite their combined military spending (over \u20ac200 billion), Europeans are unable to guarantee their own security, Thomas Gomart calls for an \u201cintellectual rearmament\u201d of the Old Continent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—————–
N.B.: this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n

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  1. \n

    All three books are published by Tallandier (Paris). \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    At several points in the book, geopolitics enthusiasts will appreciate the testimonies of experts, military officers and diplomats whom the author met on his travels in the field, which complement his expert analysis. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    Gipouloux<\/span> Fran\u00e7ois, La M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e asiatique. Villes portuaires et r\u00e9seaux marchands en Chine, au Japon et en Asie du Sud-Est. XVIe<\/sup>-XXIe<\/sup> si\u00e8cle<\/em>, Paris: CNRS \u00e9ditions, 2009. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    The Shoah for the Israelis, the Nakba for the Palestinians, the Holodomor for the Ukrainians and Medz Yeghern (\u2018the Great Calamity\u2019) for the Armenians. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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