{"id":89492,"date":"2024-02-16T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-16T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/un-commerce-mondial-en-berne-et-davantage-entre-amis\/"},"modified":"2024-10-31T14:38:05","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T13:38:05","slug":"un-commerce-mondial-en-berne-et-davantage-entre-amis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/un-commerce-mondial-en-berne-et-davantage-entre-amis\/","title":{"rendered":"Global trade is low and more among friends"},"content":{"rendered":"
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According to the latest UNCTAD [United Nations Conference on Trade and Development] Global Trade update<\/a>, after the rebound linked to the end of the Covid pandemic at the end of 2020 and in 2021, global trade has been falling in value terms since mid-2022 and is set to fall by 4.5% in 2023 compared with 2022.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n

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\n Annual trade growth for goods and services, 2019-2023\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Source: <\/em>UNCTAD<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

Between 2022 and 2023, global trade in goods and services slowed in value overall. But while trade in goods has shrunk by 7.5% compared with 2022, trade in services is still up by 7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This decline in foreign trade is more marked in developing countries, with a particularly sharp fall in South-South trade. North America is the region where trade has fallen the least, thanks in particular to intra-regional trade. However, according to UNCTAD, the contraction in global trade is due to weaker demand in rich countries, the weaker economic performance of East Asian countries and the fall in commodity prices. Although the value of international trade in goods fell, its volume remained slightly positive. In terms of value, it was trade in communications equipment, office equipment, textiles and clothing that fell the most; conversely, it was transport equipment and road vehicles that were traded more between countries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

More importantly for the future, global trade has been reconfigured by giving priority to the quality of relations between countries (trade between \u201cfriends\u201d) rather than geographical proximity. For example, Europe\u2019s boycott of Russia has benefited imports from the United States and Brazil; trade between China and the United States has declined for geopolitical reasons, to the benefit of Mexico and other East Asian economies. In addition, UNCTAD points to a concentration of trade relations on the main trading partners or a lesser diversification of partners.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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If the outlook for global trade in 2024 is uncertain and rather pessimistic, it is because protectionist measures, particularly non-tariff barriers, increased significantly in 2023, either to support local industrial policy or to meet climate commitments. Another UNCTAD report<\/a>, published in December 2023, listed 2,366 non-tariff measures linked to climate change, which have an impact on 3.5% of tradable goods (notably transport vehicles and power generation equipment) but account for 26.4% of global trade by value. These more protectionist policies could therefore continue to hamper global trade in the future.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, in order to circumvent the barriers to Chinese imports that have been put in place in the rich countries, and also to benefit from cheaper labour and less stringent environmental standards, Chinese companies are investing massively in the countries of South-East Asia<\/a>, in the energy transition industries: extraction of rare earths in Burma, manufacture of solar panels and processing of battery materials in Indonesia, and manufacture of electric vehicles in Thailand. Indeed, it will be difficult for rich countries to alienate a country like Indonesia, whose nickel resources are particularly important for developing their battery industries.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n What Factors are Driving Global Value-Chain Reconfiguration?<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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26 October 2023<\/div>\n LACHAUX Aymeric<\/a>\n
\n 14 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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N.B.:<\/em> this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

According to the latest UNCTAD [United Nations Conference on Trade and Development] Global Trade update, after the rebound linked to the end of the Covid pandemic at the end of 2020 and in 2021, global trade has been falling in value terms since mid-2022 and is set to fall by 4.5% in 2023 compared with … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":86673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[140],"tags":[133,203],"keyword":[878,851,896,845,1003],"class_list":["post-89492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newswatch","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-geopolitique-en","keyword-consommation-en","keyword-economie-internationale-en","keyword-relations-internationales-en","keyword-commerce-international-en","keyword-production-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89492"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89492\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99217,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89492\/revisions\/99217"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89492"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=89492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}