{"id":88714,"date":"2023-11-23T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-23T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/chine-etats-unis-fin-et-lecons-de-la-guerre-des-puces\/"},"modified":"2024-10-31T11:29:26","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T10:29:26","slug":"chine-etats-unis-fin-et-lecons-de-la-guerre-des-puces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/chine-etats-unis-fin-et-lecons-de-la-guerre-des-puces\/","title":{"rendered":"China \/ United States: end and lessons of the chip war"},"content":{"rendered":"
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It took only four years after Donald Trump imposed IT sanctions on China for Huawei to announce the launch of its top-of-the-range 5G mobile phone using 7nm (nanometre) technology, and for Apple and its flagship iPhone 15 to be shut out of the Chinese market. Four years for the US administration to capitulate and leave the field open to a booming Chinese IT industry that could catch up with the US industry as early as 2025.<\/h6>\n\n\n<\/div>\n
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Facts and issues<\/h2>\n

On September 8, 2023, Huawei took the US by surprise by announcing the launch of the Mate 60 Pro mobile phone with 7nm chips supporting 5G. Manufactured by a Chinese company, SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), the chips that equip these phones are little more than five years behind the most advanced on the market.[1]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

This calls into question the credibility of US sanctions against China and indicates the price to be paid for the failure of sanctions on semi-conductors: an irresistible breakthrough in supply from China\u2019s computing power.<\/p>\n

Without getting too technical, it is worth recalling China\u2019s strategy. The line is taken by Huawei Chairman Xu Zhijun,[2]<\/a><\/sup> who believes that in order to stimulate industrial development and close the gap with foreign competitors, China must relentlessly build a sustainable industrial ecosystem, based on the large-scale use of domestic products and technologies, which applies to both chip design and IT architecture \u2014 to be developed at arm\u2019s length from US legislation.<\/p>\n

And the results are already being seen: the Kirin 9000s processor, designed by HiSilicon, features an advanced 12-core architecture (compared with 8 in current architectures) that delivers a substantial increase in processing power. The distant origins of its operating system, HarmonyOS 4.0, lie in a modified open source version of Android. The new smartphone will be the first phone in the world to feature direct dialling from the state-of-the-art Tiantong-1 satellite system \u2014 essential for communicating in remote or semi-desert areas of the country.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n The United States and China: An Unbalanced Techno-Commercial Confrontation?<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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5 October 2023<\/div>\n SEAMAN John<\/a>\n
\n 7 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Interview\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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American disappointments<\/h2>\n

This performance effectively negates the raison d\u2019\u00eatre<\/em> of the sanctions enacted in 2019 by the US government under President Donald Trump, which were intended to deny China access to advanced semiconductor technologies and delay the technological catch-up of the Chinese electronics industry by at least 10 years. To cover up this cruel setback, the US authorities first cast doubt on the reality of Huawei\u2019s breakthrough: the US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo went so far as to declare the US government doesn\u2019t \u201chave any evidence that [Huawei] can manufacture seven-nanometer at scale\u201d. In other words, if Huawei did achieve a technology breakthrough by figuring out a new and unique way to produce 5G-capable 7nm chips, the US doesn\u2019t think the company is prepared to actually make those chips at a large enough scale for it to be significant.[3]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

But she was contradicted by Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Adviser, who announced the launch of an investigation into how the Huawei Mate 60 Pro came to be. Jake Sullivan is merely responding to the concerns expressed by American manufacturers. The main consequence of the failure of the sanctions is that the Chinese electronics industry can now compete directly with its American counterparts.<\/p>\n

Huawei is already on the attack. As Liu Dingding, Beijing-based tech analyst, points out, \u201cHuawei’s preemptive strategy in putting its cutting-edge new phones on the shelves right before Apple\u2019s key launch event has drawn enormous attention\u201d. What\u2019s more, its sales force can rely on a patriotic argument: the Mate 60 Pro is a more presentable gift than the iPhone, and the people who use it are proud of their country. In the face of this rebound by Huawei, experts agree that Apple\u2019s iPhone will lose a third of the Chinese market.[4]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n China\/USA: Avoiding Conflict<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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26 December 2022<\/div>\n FERNANDEZ Justine<\/a>\n
\n 10 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Chinese success<\/h2>\n

Beijing\u2019s manoeuvres were immediately crowned with success: the US Department of Commerce capitulated. On October 9, 2023, the Chinese newspaper Global Times<\/em>, quoting Reuters, announced that the Chinese subsidiaries of two South Korean companies, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, had been approved as \u201cvalidated end users\u201d \u2014 a crucial approval for these two groups, which had invested billions of US dollars in their Chinese subsidiaries, which manufacture more than 40% of their most powerful chips. The parallel authorisation to export production equipment should enable them to expand their giant production units.<\/p>\n

According to Chinese commentators<\/a>, the technology war waged by Washington has ultimately boosted Beijing\u2019s resilience: \u201cUS\u2019 suppression might bring us some troubles in the short term, in the long run, these \u2018wars\u2019 are not ultimately in their favor\u201d. The reappearance of Huawei smartphones after three years of enforced silence is proof enough that the US crackdown has failed. Washington\u2019s decision-makers should ask themselves whether they should continue to fight to the death, or whether they should look for a space for win-win cooperation on a global scale?[5]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

All the more so as other battles lie ahead. In preparation for the arrival of 6G technology, Huawei, the first in the world, has unveiled its \u20185.5G\u2019 network architecture which, thanks to innovations in broadband, multi-frequency, multi-antenna, intelligent and green technologies, aims to increase the capacity of current 5G networks tenfold.[6]<\/a><\/sup> China and the United States are now challenging each other not just on their equipment offerings, but on what they represent globally in terms of computing power. This is a new area of confrontation: Beijing is pushing hard to develop its infrastructures and computing power. Currently in second place behind the United States, China intends to increase its computing power by 50% by 2025,[7]<\/a><\/sup> equalling that of the United States.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n From Petrodollars to Petroyuans<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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27 March 2023<\/div>\n LAMBLIN V\u00e9ronique<\/a>\n
\n 6 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Newswatch\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The predicted failure of sanctions<\/h2>\n

So forget the sanctions, which proved to be inept. What could have been predicted from the outset was that the technological bans imposed on China have always proved counter-productive. For example, when the USSR ended its nuclear assistance, the Chinese took off on their own (in the early 1960s) and tested their first atomic warhead in 1964. Similarly, in 1993, the Clinton administration blocked China\u2019s access to satellite technology. But this has not prevented China from gaining access to satellite technology and now has more than 500 satellites in orbit. The same setback occurred with GPS: China was only granted restricted access to the system in 1999, but by 2003 the first version of a competing system, Beidou, was operational; it has since joined, if not overtaken, its competitors.<\/p>\n

Hence the lesson to be learned from this latest episode: there can be no lasting technological blockade against a large, innovative country like China, with hundreds of thousands of top-level engineers. The same applies to countries with a smaller surface area but a fierce will to succeed, such as Iran and North Korea. Since they are intrinsically fragile, any sanctions must above all serve to open negotiations.<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013<\/span>
\nN.B.:<\/em> this article has been translated from French by DeepL and revised by Futuribles.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source:<\/em> this article is an edited version of an article published in the Lettre confidentielle Asie21-Futuribles,<\/em> No. 176, October 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n What Future for Unilateral Sanctions?<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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28 September 2023<\/div>\n HOFER Alexandra<\/a>\n
\n 8 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Newswatch\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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  1. \n

    Sohail<\/span> Omar, \u201cSMIC, Which Made the Kirin 9000S, Is Just Four Years behind the Most Advanced Node, U.S. Sanctions Were Aimed to Limit Capabilities by 10 Years<\/a>\u201d, WCCF (Where Consumers Come First) Tech, <\/em>September 30, 2023. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    \u201cHuawei Calls for Massive Use of Home Grown Technology and Chips to Help Construct Sustainable Computing Ecosystem<\/a>\u201d, Global Times, <\/em>September 17, 2023. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    Brown<\/span> C. Scott, \u201cUS Government Official Says HUAWEI Could Be Bluffing on Mate 60 Pro chip Scale<\/a>\u201d, Android Authority, September 19, 2023. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    \u201cApple\u2019s New Products Face Challenges from Huawei\u2019s Rebound, High-end Mobile Phone Sector Becomes Fiercely Competitive: Analysts<\/a>\u201d, Global Times<\/em>, September 11, 2023; and \u201cHow Should Raimondo Accurately Understand Huawei\u2019s New Presales?<\/a>\u201d, Global Times<\/em>, August 30, 2023. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  5. \n

    \u201cHuawei Strengthens Push for 5.5G, Says Network Capacity to Increase 10 Times<\/a>\u201d, Global Times<\/em>, October 12, 2023. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  6. \n

    \u201cChina Aims to Increase Computing Power by more than 50% by 2025<\/a>\u201d, Global Times<\/em>, October 9, 2023. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  7. \n

    To exceed 300 exaFLOPS – 1 exaFLOP = 1018<\/sup> FLOPS (FLoating point Operations Per Second, a unit for measuring computing power). \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    It took only four years after Donald Trump imposed IT sanctions on China for Huawei to announce the launch of its top-of-the-range 5G mobile phone using 7nm (nanometre) technology, and for Apple and its flagship iPhone 15 to be shut out of the Chinese market. Four years for the US administration to capitulate and leave … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":83683,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[140],"tags":[133,203],"keyword":[953,1917,863,1306,845,909],"class_list":["post-88714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newswatch","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-geopolitique-en","keyword-chine-en","keyword-sanctions-economiques-en","keyword-entreprises-en","keyword-technologie-de-pointe-en","keyword-commerce-international-en","keyword-etats-unis-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88714"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88714\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99174,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88714\/revisions\/99174"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88714"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=88714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}