{"id":87616,"date":"2024-01-16T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-16T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/aviation-civile-un-rebond-a-lepreuve-du-climat\/"},"modified":"2024-10-31T11:31:46","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T10:31:46","slug":"aviation-civile-un-rebond-a-lepreuve-du-climat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/aviation-civile-un-rebond-a-lepreuve-du-climat\/","title":{"rendered":"Civil aviation: a climate-proof rebound?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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After a lean period, air traffic is enjoying a spectacular rebound, on a par with the brutal collapse it suffered during the Covid crisis in 2020 (down 60%[1]<\/a><\/sup> ). In the longer term, however, the sector\u2019s growth could be slowed by the end of the post-pandemic cycle and the rise of climate regulations.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), it takes civil air transport an average of five years to recover the traffic lost during a crisis. With traffic growth expected to reach 3% in 2024 compared with 2019, the upturn in activity is encouraging.[2]<\/a><\/sup> For aircraft manufacturers and airports, the economic equation is slightly different, but here too the results are very encouraging. This was demonstrated at the 2023 International Paris Air Show, where airlines filled the order books of the two largest aircraft manufacturers, with more than 1,000 aircraft<\/a> sold.[3]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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A recovering market<\/h2>\n

Against this backdrop, the aviation giants are forecasting robust growth and a doubling of fleets to 48,575 aircraft by 2040. IATA estimates that global traffic could reach 7.2 billion passengers by 2035 and 10 billion by 2050, compared with 4.5 billion in 2019 (Figure\u00a01). Traffic could double in Europe, increase by a factor of 2.5 in South America and by a factor of 3.25 in Asia-Pacific<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This optimistic outlook can be explained both by the growth potential of several emerging countries and by the continuing real desire of consumers in Western countries to fly. In addition, the growth in the number of aircraft orders can be explained by the cyclical effects of Western airlines, which are obliged to renew their fleets at least every 25 years. However, other factors could constrain the sector\u2019s structural growth.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Air freight Has a Bright Future, Thanks to Our Internet Shopping<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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24 January 2023<\/div>\n LAMBLIN V\u00e9ronique<\/a>\n
\n 6 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Newswatch\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Society<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n Figure 1. Global air passengers, past and forecast (billions)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Source: <\/em>IATA, Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts in <\/em>Global Outlook for Air Transport: Sustained Recovery Amidst Strong Headwinds<\/a>, December 2022, p. 11.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

Travel, travel…<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One obvious obstacle is the climate emergency and people\u2019s growing concern about the carbon impact of civil aviation, symbolised in Europe by the concepts of flight shame or flygskam<\/em>. According to an Ipsos study<\/a>, during the summer of 2023, two out of three European holidaymakers said they were prepared to change their mode of transport to reduce their carbon impact. Against this backdrop, the massive orders for aircraft from emerging countries \u2014 particularly Indian airlines, which have broken records for the largest orders \u2014 have not failed to provoke some criticism. The philosopher Gaspard Koenig suggested that it was time to \u201ctravel less far and less fast\u201d, while Jean-Marc Jancovici<\/a>, founder of the Shift Project, suggested imposing quotas: \u201cno more than four flights per person, over a lifetime\u201d. For the moment, however, this rethink is not reflected in civil aviation statistics. According to the same Ipsos study<\/a>, 37% of Europeans plan to travel by plane this year, compared with 22% in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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Ecological transition, what prospects?<\/h2>\n

The other factor that could constrain the sector\u2019s growth is the emergence of more stringent regulations aimed at reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.<\/p>\n

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), for example, has set a target of reducing CO2<\/sub> emissions in global aviation by 5% by 2030, and reducing net carbon emissions to zero by 2050<\/a>. This objective does not seem to worry players in the aviation sector, who are betting on the effects of future technological leaps. Technological breakthroughs alone should help to reduce emissions by 26%, according to the ATAG (Air Transport Action Group)[4]<\/a><\/sup> . Moreover, in the short term, the use of big data, better application of eco-piloting practices, lighter aircraft, electric taxiing, optimisation of airport infrastructures, an increase in the proportion of non-stop flights, better aircraft load factor, etc., would probably enable the sector to achieve and even surpass its targets (5% by 2030), according to some experts.[5]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Decarbonizing Mobility<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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27 February 2023<\/div>\n SAUVANT Alain<\/a>\n AUVERLOT Dominique<\/a>\n
\n 18 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Science and Technology<\/a>\n Society<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n Figure 2. Impact of measures adopted and CO2 emissions trajectory for global air transport (in millions of tonnes of CO2)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Source: ATAG, Waypoint 2050<\/em><\/a>, p. 14.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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In the longer term, decarbonisation of the sector will of course depend on structural changes to aircraft fuels. Members of the European Parliament have adopted a European directive setting the target of a 14% share of renewable energies in the transport sector as a whole by 2030. Another target, aimed more specifically at civil aviation, calls for the incorporation of sustainable fuels: 2% by 2025, 20% by 2035, and up to 70% by 2050<\/a>. The term sustainable fuel refers to biofuels and synthetic fuels derived from hydrogen, but for the time being it is difficult to know which solution will prevail.<\/p>\n

However, one thing is certain: the use of liquid hydrogen \u2014 the preferred solution for long-haul flights but requiring a complete redesign of the aircraft \u2014 is not for tomorrow. \u201cWhen we start work on a new aircraft, we\u2019re looking at 60 years… We don\u2019t yet know who will win out, whether it\u2019s electric hydrogen, cooled hydrogen or compressed hydrogen; the technologies are not yet mature, so we can\u2019t start an aircraft from scratch\u201d, adds Nicolas Descoqs<\/a>, from Clartan Associ\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Which Technologies for Decarbonizing Transport?<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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27 February 2023<\/div>\n SAUVANT Alain<\/a>\n AUVERLOT Dominique<\/a>\n
\n 20 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Science and Technology<\/a>\n Society<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Biofuels produced from biomass (agricultural waste, used oil, algae) are emerging as a promising alternative. According to IATA, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) could reduce CO2<\/sub> emissions by up to 80%, assuming 100% incorporation into aviation fuel over the entire use cycle, compared with conventional aviation paraffin. Theoretically, the latter could be incorporated without having to change the engine, but production is still in its infancy due to the lack of sufficiently developed industrial sectors, with the result that their price is four to eight times higher than that of fossil paraffin. This is a prohibitive level, compounded by uncertainty about future increases in the event of industrial scale-up and the cost of infrastructure.[6]<\/a><\/sup> In Europe alone, the infrastructure investment needed to make biofuels widely available in aviation would amount to nearly US$306 billion by 2050, according to ATAG.[7]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Airvore ou le mythe des transports propres<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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23 January 2023<\/div>\n LAMBLIN V\u00e9ronique<\/a>\n
\n 4 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Read, Seen, Heard\n <\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Society<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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More likely, a mix of different sustainable power solutions will become the norm in the medium to long term. Electricity seems particularly appropriate for small regional aircraft, and hydrogen for short-haul aircraft. But the only viable solution for decarbonising medium- and long-haul aviation in the medium term lies in e-fuels (or electro-fuels), which are fuels made from \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen to produce methane or synthetic paraffinic fuels, such as e-gasoline, e-gasoil or e-kerosene, which are sustainable.<\/p>\n

Here again, however, medium-term adoption seems difficult to envisage, since to achieve the European targets we would need to almost quadruple biofuel production by 2025, and multiply it by more than 10 by 2030. The issue of sustainable fuels is therefore central, not least to the sector\u2019s economic health. It is in this area that the greatest potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions lies: around 60%.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n What contribution can e-fuels make to decarbonising transport?<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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9 November 2023<\/div>\n LAMBLIN V\u00e9ronique<\/a>\n
\n 7 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Newswatch\n <\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Science and Technology<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n Figure 3. CO2 emissions from air transport worldwide in a very proactive scenario in terms of technology and operations (in millions of tonnes of CO2)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Source: <\/em>ATAG, Waypoint 2050<\/em><\/a>,<\/em> p. 24.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the absence of fiscal measures capable of moderating demand, ticket prices could rise indirectly as a result of the growing adoption of greener but more expensive air fuels. Since technology can only limit the increase in emissions rather than eliminate them completely, it will not be a viable alternative. This trend could lead to two-tiered air mobility, with aviation once again becoming the preserve of the more affluent classes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013
N.B.: <\/em>this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n

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  1. \n

    In 2020, according to a report by Cirium, a specialist in global aeronautical data. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    <\/a> According to IATA (see chart 1). Source: <\/em>The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015,<\/em><\/a> World Economic Forum, p. 60. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    IndiGo, a dominant carrier in the Indian domestic market, has made a name for itself by placing an order for 500 Airbus A320 Family aircraft<\/a>, an all-time record, dethroning Air India, which had held the precedent since February 2023. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    ATAG, Waypoint 2050<\/em><\/a>, p. 25. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  5. \n

    Interview with Xavier Tytelman, August 2023. Energy savings on the ground \/ ground operations: boarding, disembarking, taxiing to the runway (taxi-out), taxiing from the runway to the point of disembarkation (taxi-in) are not negligible: an electric traction system deployed for 90% of taxi-in <\/em>and taxi-out <\/em>by 2035 would save France 0.24 million tonnes of CO2<\/sub> per year (MtCO2<\/sub>\/year), according to estimates by the Shift Project<\/a>. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  6. \n

    In France, the French Agency for Ecological Transition (ADEME)<\/a> is forecasting a fall in traffic due to the additional cost of tickets linked to the arrival of new fuels. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  7. \n

    Waypoint 2050<\/em><\/a>,<\/em> p. 86. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    After a lean period, air traffic is enjoying a spectacular rebound, on a par with the brutal collapse it suffered during the Covid crisis in 2020 (down 60%[1] ). In the longer term, however, the sector\u2019s growth could be slowed by the end of the post-pandemic cycle and the rise of climate regulations. According to … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":85882,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[140],"tags":[133,202],"keyword":[1426,1264,1251,1427,1293,1886,1011],"class_list":["post-87616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newswatch","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-environnement-en","keyword-transport-aerien-en","keyword-industrie-aeronautique-en","keyword-transition-en","keyword-fret-en","keyword-mobilite-en","keyword-sobriete-en","keyword-tourisme-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87616","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87616"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87616\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99177,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87616\/revisions\/99177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85882"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87616"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=87616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}