{"id":80733,"date":"2023-09-28T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/?p=80733"},"modified":"2024-10-31T11:28:22","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T10:28:22","slug":"quel-avenir-pour-les-sanctions-unilaterales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/quel-avenir-pour-les-sanctions-unilaterales\/","title":{"rendered":"What Future for Unilateral Sanctions?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In international relations, unilateral sanctions are the imposition of social or material costs in response to (perceived) wrongdoing. They are adopted by states pursuant to their own national or executive powers, or by an organization against non-member states. These policy tools are based on a rational-choice approach to state behaviour, which views state decision-makers as rational actors motivated by maximising their interests. The rationale behind sanctions is that they change behaviour by manipulating the target\u2019s (the state subjected to sanctions) cost-benefit analysis and thereby persuade it to choose the less costly alternative. <\/h6>\n\n\n\n

However, it is often acknowledged<\/a> that sanctions are ineffective at changing behaviour. To make up for this, it is then said that they serve multiple purposes. For instance, they can deter or constrain behaviour, and they have an important symbolic function. As sanctions are generally justified in normative terms, they signal commitment to international norms. For this reason, despite their lack of success in changing behaviour they are seen as an important enforcement tool in international law. <\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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Current events suggest that sanctions are not going anywhere, particularly while the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) are enthusiastic wielders of this instrument. This is made evident by the \u2018unprecedented\u2019 sanctions regime against Russia (one of many examples), which they justify as a mean to defend \u2018the rules-based international order\u2019. From their perspective, unilateral sanctions are an appropriate foreign policy tool to uphold international norms and values. However, these measures\u2019 long-term impact could have important structural consequences on the distribution of power between states and on the US and EU\u2019s ability to impose unilateral sanctions. This brief commentary discusses these potential trends by first considering how targets react to unilateral sanctions and then the position of third states.<\/p>\n

Richard Nephew<\/a> aptly describes sanctions as psychological tools: through the infliction of pain on a target\u2019s inflection points, their purpose is to weaken a state\u2019s resolve. Yet, they are designed with a poor understanding of the target\u2019s psychology. \u2018Costs\u2019 are not the only variable that shapes behaviour. More often than not, state behaviour is influenced by inter-state interactions and perceptions of others\u2019 intentions. For this reason, the rational-choice approach does not aptly capture how states respond to sanctions, and a sociological approach<\/a> can provide a more complete picture. Such an approach would consider social interactions between states and how they influence decision-making. How an actor defines itself, positions itself in the world, and interprets its interactions with others are significant. For example, Russian leaders view their state as a \u2018Great Power\u2019 and perceive the sanctions as economic warfare, adopted to weaken Russia and make it suffer. Under this light, Russian leadership may consider it would be much more \u2018costly\u2019 to give into the measures than to suffer their consequences. Sanctioned states generally demonstrate their resilience and willingness to adapt to the costs imposed rather than give in to the senders\u2019 pressure.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"Une<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n War in Ukraine: Six Scenarios to the Year 2025<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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2 March 2023<\/div>\n S\u00c9GUR Mars<\/a>\n LE BEC Antoine<\/a>\n
\n 31 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Foresight Analysis\n <\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Certain states, such as Venezuela (see, for example, here<\/a> and here<\/a>), Iran<\/a>, and Qatar<\/a>, have had recourse to peaceful settlement of dispute mechanisms to challenge unilateral sanctions\u2019 legality. Some of these proceedings require legal creativity as there is no treaty that bans sanctions altogether or that regulates their use. Sanctions may one day be regulated, but as they are highly political it is difficult to predict not only when this would occur but also which rules states could agree upon. There does, nonetheless, appear to be a general agreement that sanctions should not negatively affect the civilian population of a sanctioned state. <\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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However, broad sanctions regimes against Russia, Venezuela, Iran, or Syria mark a return to comprehensive sanctions regimes. These measures consisted of a complete embargo on a country and were heavily condemned following their severe humanitarian consequences on Iraq in the 1990s. Since then, the expectation is that sanctions are targeted. They should be directed against those directly responsible for wrongful conduct (in the form of asset freezes or travel bans), or be limited to a given sector of a state\u2019s economy (\u2018sectoral sanctions\u2019). That said, when various sectoral sanctions are imposed by a multitude of jurisdictions, this can lead to a decline in living standards as inflation rises and it becomes more difficult for the population to have access to basic necessities such as food and medicine (see, for example, here<\/a> and here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

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To ensure that costs are imposed effectively and targets cannot circumvent them by engaging in trade with third states, sanctions senders seek multilateral support. When third states do not willingly align with the restrictions, the US has recourse to secondary sanctions, whereby they sanction actors that do not comply with their sanctions, even if they fall outside their jurisdiction. The US is able to achieve this by the weaponization of its currency<\/a>. Thanks to the dominance of the US dollar, which provides access to the global market, private actors are loath to be barred from the US financial system and prefer to comply with US restrictions. In sanctioning Russia, the EU has implemented its own extraterritorial sanctions, a practice that it generally condemns. In June, the EU adopted \u2018anti-circumvention sanctions<\/a>\u2019, which, amongst other measures, threaten to implement export controls against third countries \u201cwhose jurisdiction is demonstrated to be at a continuing and particularly high risk of being used for circumvention\u201d of the EU sanctions against Russia.<\/p>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n From Petrodollars to Petroyuans<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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27 March 2023<\/div>\n LAMBLIN V\u00e9ronique<\/a>\n
\n 6 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Newswatch\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Nonetheless, there is little appreciation for how third states interpret these measures. While the US and EU have sanctioned Russia for its grave breach of international law and are supported by about 20 other states, most have abstained from implementing restrictions even if they agree that Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine is illegal. It is not generally appreciated that the so-called \u2018Global South\u2019 contests<\/a> the adoption of sanctions and does not see them as an appropriate means to enforce international norms and settle disputes. They frequently claim these measures breach various principles of international law (particularly the principle of non-intervention) and violate human rights (especially social and economic rights). Unilateral and extraterritorial sanctions are grossly unregulated<\/a> and can have far-reaching effects on third parties, which are not targeted but nonetheless affected. Additionally, these policy tools increase inter-state resentments. They are tainted with double standards as like cases are not treated alike, and through their imposition sanctioners are perceived as pursuing their own interests and enforcing their own values with little regard for how third actors are impacted. In the long-term, such resentments can motivate states to restructure the international order<\/a> so as to be on more equal footing with sanction senders. <\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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It seems to me that we are already observing backlash against sanctions adopted unilaterally with little regard for how they impact third states. States are seeking to form alliances to delegitimize sanctions and limit their impact (issues aptly recounted by Agathe Demarais<\/a> and Daniel McDowell<\/a>). For one thing, the US dollar\u2019s status as the global reserve currency is increasingly questioned. US Secretary of State Janet Yellen has acknowledged<\/a> that: \u201cThere is a risk, when we use financial sanctions that are linked to the role of the dollar, that, over time, it could undermine the hegemony of the dollar [\u2026]\u201d De-dollarization<\/a> is attractive to states that, amongst other objectives, wish to escape US sanctions\u2019 broad reach. The de-coupling from the US dollar is being pursued by the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which has recently expanded to include six new states<\/a>. There is the concern that aggressive sanctions could encourage the end of the petrodollar<\/a>. Saudi Arabia<\/a>, which is one of the six countries admitted into BRICS, has expressed its openness to accepting currencies other than the US dollar. Part of the reason is that Middle Eastern countries wish to continue trading with Russia and want to avoid<\/a> secondary sanctions. It is not only \u2018non-Western\u2019 states that protest extraterritorial sanctions. As mentioned, the EU had previously done so, even attempting to counter their impact by adopting a blocking statute<\/a> (1996) and an \u2018anti-coercion instrument<\/a>\u2019 (2021). As also mentioned, sanctioned countries tend to demonstrate resilience and to seek alternatives. While the EU is turning away from Russian oil, trade has increased between China and Russia<\/a>, which use currencies such as the yuan. China and Russia have demonstrated their willingness to usher in a multipolar world order<\/a> and to challenge a system they perceive as dominated by the US.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Human Rights or Energy \u2014 The Dilemma<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
\n
27 February 2023<\/div>\n DREVET Jean-Fran\u00e7ois<\/a>\n
\n 8 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n European Chronicle\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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In The Economic Weapon<\/em><\/a>, Nicholas Mulder recounts how the inter-war sanctions against Germany and Italy that were intended to deter them from engaging in warfare had the counterproductive effect of encouraging them to resort to aggressive policies, eventually leading to World War II. Although sanction senders still employ these instruments to respond to wrongful behaviour and demonstrate their commitment to norms, their long-term impacts are unpredictable. While sanctioners may seek to increase the effectiveness of their restrictions by making them more sophisticated and far-reaching, if they do not consider how unilateral sanctions impact not only targeted states but also third states, as well as how they are perceived, they risk engaging in practices that will undermine their policy objectives as well as their ability to impose unilateral sanctions. <\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In international relations, unilateral sanctions are the imposition of social or material costs in response to (perceived) wrongdoing. They are adopted by states pursuant to their own national or executive powers, or by an organization against non-member states. These policy tools are based on a rational-choice approach to state behaviour, which views state decision-makers as … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":80713,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[140],"tags":[133,203],"keyword":[841,1052,909,906],"class_list":["post-80733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newswatch","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-geopolitique-en","keyword-union-europeenne-en","keyword-russie-en","keyword-etats-unis-en","keyword-guerre-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80733"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80733\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99171,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80733\/revisions\/99171"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80733"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=80733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}