{"id":73706,"date":"2019-02-12T13:09:27","date_gmt":"2019-02-12T12:09:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/analysis-of-competing-hypotheses\/"},"modified":"2025-03-14T17:00:38","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T16:00:38","slug":"analysis-of-competing-hypotheses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/analysis-of-competing-hypotheses\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis of Competing Hypotheses"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='post-container'>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is an intelligence analysis method based on evaluating plausible and exclusive hypotheses for a given question. It involves validating or invalidating hypotheses using available information; i.e., observed facts or existing data that essentially represent evidence for or against each hypothesis. Through a logical elimination process, ACH seeks primarily to refute rather than validate hypotheses.<br \/>In short, it helps select those hypotheses compatible with the available information and retrieve the best possible estimate. ACH resembles Differential Diagnosis (DD) in medicine, whereby a particular disease is distinguished from others presenting some similar clinical symptoms in a patient. ACH enables the user to reduce cognitive bias, notably confirmation bias which compels people to seek evidence confirming their own prejudices. A later version of ACH, aptly named Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (SACH), entails breaking down one complex question into simple questions then conducting a traditional ACH on each of these questions.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is an intelligence analysis method based on evaluating plausible and exclusive hypotheses for a given question. It involves validating or invalidating hypotheses using available information; i.e., observed facts or existing data that essentially represent evidence for or against each hypothesis. Through a logical elimination process, ACH seeks primarily to refute rather than validate hypotheses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104143,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[126],"tags":[],"keyword":[],"class_list":["post-73706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-toolbox"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73706","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73706"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73706\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":104206,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73706\/revisions\/104206"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73706"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73706"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73706"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=73706"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}