{"id":73250,"date":"2022-03-14T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-14T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/climat-crises-le-plan-de-transformation-de-leconomie-francaise\/"},"modified":"2024-10-31T12:01:29","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T11:01:29","slug":"climat-crises-le-plan-de-transformation-de-leconomie-francaise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/climat-crises-le-plan-de-transformation-de-leconomie-francaise\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate, Crises: The Transformation Plan for the French Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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How can we decarbonize the French economy by 2050 so that France can contribute to limiting global warming? This is the question the Shift Project seeks to answer. This think tank, a large group of experts led by Jean-Marc Jancovici, proposes concrete solutions for achieving the energy transition, which are presented in the seventeen chapters of this book. In the foreword, Jancovici reminds us that our addiction to fossil fuels is the main cause of climate change and emphasizes the need to radically transform French energy consumption in order to <\/s>reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially CO2<\/sub>, by 5 percent per year. The book examines the major economic sectors, proposing levers to achieve their energy transformation and considering the resulting impact on employment.<\/h6>
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The Shift Project<\/span> \/ Jancovici <\/span>Jean-Marc (foreword), Climat, crises\u00a0: le plan de transformation de l\u2019\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise<\/em>, Paris: Odile Jacob, January 2022, 272 p.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n \n \n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n \"\"\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n

The Transformation Plan for the French Economy (Plan de transformation de l\u2019\u00e9conomie fran\u00e7aise<\/em>, or PTEF, in Shift Project terminology) is neither growth- nor degrowth-oriented and is based on three principles: 1) drastically reducing the consumption of fossil fuels; 2) limiting the consumption of materials; and 3) reducing the consumption of biomass. It advocates energy conservation by halving final energy consumption in 2050 compared to 2019, virtually eliminating the use of fossil fuels, and limiting the use of liquid and gaseous fuels of non-fossil origin produced from biomass (which are very expensive). Shifting to electricity is the key to this transformation, so the plan adopts the scenario of an electricity mix with a high dose of nuclear power (50 percent of electricity produced in 2050-2060, the rest coming from renewables), as proposed by RTE, a French utilities company, in its report Energy Pathways to 2050<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>but without discussing its technical-financial implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation are three major industries addressed in the transformation plan, as these currently contribute three-quarters of France\u2019s greenhouse gas emissions, which would need to be reduced by 80 percent. France has allowed whole segments of its manufacturing sector to decline (its share in GDP has fallen by half since the 1970s), so the transformation plan calls for its renewal, anticipating technological breakthroughs, with the decarbonization of heavy industries (cement, steel, chemicals), the recycling of materials, and electrical processes (notably in the steel industry).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A profound change is projected for the agriculture and agri-food industry: a threefold decrease in beef, pork, and poultry production; a threefold decrease in milk and egg production; a twofold decrease in fish products; and a shift to agroecology. Agricultural biomass would provide most of the energy, and the supply chains for agricultural products would be shortened. This transformation would result in a net creation of about five hundred thousand jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because heavy freight transport is overwhelmingly performed by high-carbon-emission trucks, the transformation plan proposes a shift to electric vehicles, as well as the use of rail and river transport, and \u201ccyclo-logistics\u201d for deliveries in urban areas. Local mobility\u2014i.e., distances of<\/s> under fifty miles\u2014accounts for 60 percent of distances traveled (65 percent by car); in order to reduce CO2<\/sub> emissions, the transformation plan calls for the development of telework and \u201cshort-distance urbanism,\u201d with travel by bikes and \u201cmicrocars.\u201d Cars and airplanes are the predominant means of long-distance mobility (9 percent of emissions), so the transformation plan calls for a 20 percent reduction in the use of these means of transportation and a reduction of one-third in the distances traveled, as well as a tripling of rail traffic, with high-speed rail at the European scale (\u201cEuro-TGVs\u201d). Since the car industry (40 million passenger and commercial vehicles) is responsible for 20 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, the shift to electric power is essential, but it will radically transform the automotive industry: the manufacture of electric engines will become simpler, the production of vehicles and their weight will decrease, as will \u201cautosolism\u201d (the use of a vehicle by a single person). The result in terms of jobs would be severe: a net loss of three hundred thousand jobs throughout the industry (production, repair, and maintenance), offset by job creation in other industries such as bicycle and battery production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

France\u2019s thirty-seven million homes emit 12 percent of the greenhouse gases; their decarbonization is thus indispensable. The use of low-carbon construction materials, a shift in new construction to multi-family buildings (fewer single-family homes), and the large-scale thermal renovation of the existing housing stock (a million homes per year) are the three main levers to this end, complemented by the use of electric heat pumps. The impact on jobs would be balanced, with the demand for renovation workers offsetting losses in construction. The Shift Project also looked at the situation in public administration, culture, and health care, which have low CO2<\/sub> emissions (health care, however, has substantial procurement costs). The thermal renovation of buildings will be essential in these sectors, where awareness of the climate issue is lacking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As it is in cities and regions that the energy transition will largely be played out, the Shift Project advocates reshaping local and regional initiatives in consultation with all stakeholders, with periodic assessment by local COPs (conferences of the parties). Country-level action is indispensable: the state must mobilize funding for the transformation of the economy, boost planning, and direct savings toward the energy transition, while at the same time supporting the most vulnerable. However, the transformation plan is rather quiet on taxation (especially carbon taxation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Shift Project has undeniably done a thorough job of providing a vision for the French economy in 2050, transformed by the energy transition, even if certain sectors of manufacturing (can there be an oil-free chemical industry?) and energy production are only briefly mentioned. Its plan covers only 15 percent of current employment; within this scope, the creation of three hundred thousand net jobs is foreseen, but one may question the forecasts in certain industries, such as agriculture and automobiles. In the automotive industry, where job losses will be high, isn\u2019t it optimistic for the authors to estimate that job creation in industries like bicycles would offset them? In agriculture, with decreased productivity (less plowing and fertilizer use) and a return to small farms, can we really expect to attract half a million new workers, especially young people, to an arduous and poorly paid profession? The same question arises for deliveries made by \u201cUberized\u201d cyclists with their precarious employment situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors acknowledge that job conversion remains a \u201cthorny\u201d issue, but it would have deserved further reflection: Won\u2019t the manufacturing, energy, and transportation industries need new training for engineers, technicians, and so on, as well as specific R&D? Indeed, the social dimension of the transformation plan is limited (in particular, the issue of energy insecurity). The Shift Project has launched a debate with its road map, upon which the authors will hopefully further expand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Translated from French and edited by Cadenza Academic Translations \u2022 Translator: Nicholas Lo Vecchio, Editor: Zahira Ransom, Senior editor: Mark Mellor<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

How can we decarbonize the French economy by 2050 so that France can contribute to limiting global warming? This is the question the Shift Project seeks to answer. This think tank, a large group of experts led by Jean-Marc Jancovici, proposes concrete solutions for achieving the energy transition, which are presented in the seventeen chapters … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":24596,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[131],"tags":[133,202],"keyword":[1058,1251,1016,944],"class_list":["post-73250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-read-seen-heard","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-environnement-en","keyword-climat-en","keyword-transition-en","keyword-conditions-economiques-en","keyword-politique-economique-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73250"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73250\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99199,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73250\/revisions\/99199"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73250"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=73250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}