{"id":35469,"date":"2001-09-01T02:00:00","date_gmt":"2001-09-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/le-cycle-kondratieff-mythe-et-realite\/"},"modified":"2022-11-26T00:49:49","modified_gmt":"2022-11-25T23:49:49","slug":"le-cycle-kondratieff-mythe-et-realite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/le-cycle-kondratieff-mythe-et-realite\/","title":{"rendered":"Le cycle Kondratieff : mythe et r\u00e9alit\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"

The upturn in economic growth in France since 1997, a few years later than in the United States, has been interpreted in a number of different ways. For many observers, it suggests the start of a new phase of expansion, following logically, as required by the Kondratiev cycles, on the “Thirty Lean Years” that succeeded the post-war period of growth.
According to many enthusiastic believers in the Kondratiev function, our economies are subject to phases of expansion and then of less rapid growth occurring inevitably, no matter what we do, every 50 years; the present upturn is supposedly stimulated by a favourable international environment and the coming-of-age of the information and communications technologies.
Éric Bosserelle argues that this is a crass and wrongheaded interpretation of the theories of Nicolaï Kondratiev, who was interested only in long-term fluctuations in prices and never claimed to construct a theory that would be able to explain the past, let alone predict future patterns of economic growth.
Bosserelle reminds us of some essential truths about Kondratiev’s work, the somewhat fragile empirical basis for it and the long-term fluctuations that he brought to light. He demonstrates the advantages as well as the limits of the theories, including those that arose from the particular circumstances of the period Kondratiev studied.
He therefore stresses that the Kondratiev cycles are concerned with the dynamics of prices of basic products over the long term, a concern that is unfortunately completely or partially overlooked by modern theories, none of which has managed to deal convincingly with a key question: the recurrence of cycles lasting half a century. Consequently, Éric Bosserelle concludes, it would be as well to remain cautious with regard to certain fashionable viewpoints which suggest that our economies are going to develop according to unalterable laws.<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The upturn in economic growth in France since 1997, a few years later than in the United States, has been interpreted in a number of different ways. For many observers, it suggests the start of a new phase of expansion, following logically, as required by the Kondratiev cycles, on the “Thirty Lean Years” that succeeded … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[47,1324],"tags":[133],"keyword":[1008,857],"class_list":["post-35469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","category-revue-futuribles","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","keyword-croissance-economique-en","keyword-sciences-economiques-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35469"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35469\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52393,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35469\/revisions\/52393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35469"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=35469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}