{"id":34391,"date":"1997-12-01T01:00:00","date_gmt":"1997-12-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/controverse-sur-la-prevision-et-lincidence-des-cat\/"},"modified":"2022-11-26T01:36:59","modified_gmt":"2022-11-26T00:36:59","slug":"controverse-sur-la-prevision-et-lincidence-des-cat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/controverse-sur-la-prevision-et-lincidence-des-cat\/","title":{"rendered":"Controverse sur la pr\u00e9vision et l&#8217;incidence des catastrophes"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='post-container'><p>Controversy on the Forecasting and Incidence of Catastrophes<br \/>\nIn April 1997 (n\u00b0219), Futuribles published an article by Bernadette de Vanssay entitled &#8220;Du s\u00e9isme de Kanto au s\u00e9isme de Kob\u00e9. Utilit\u00e9 et limites de la pr\u00e9vision des catastrophes (From the Earthquake of Kanto to the Earthquake of Kob\u00e9: The Usefulness and Limitations of Catastrophe Forecasts)&#8221;.<br \/>\nThe article elicited a lively reaction from one of our readers. Lucien Coste of the environmental risks division at \u00c9lectricit\u00e9 de France reproaches us for having let pass two obvious and indisputable errors of fact. He also notes that the article left out the problem of panic and looting which accompany major catastrophes, and finally that it failed to account for some good research on forecasting catastrophes.<br \/>\nWe publish Coste&#8217;s letter in this issue, along with a review of the book he recommended to us. Finally, we publish an expansion drafted with the collaboration of Bernadette de Vanssay on the question of panic and on the pre-visibility of catastrophes, subjects for which the evidence is highly controversial.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Controversy on the Forecasting and Incidence of Catastrophes In April 1997 (n\u00b0219), Futuribles published an article by Bernadette de Vanssay entitled &#8220;Du s\u00e9isme de Kanto au s\u00e9isme de Kob\u00e9. Utilit\u00e9 et limites de la pr\u00e9vision des catastrophes (From the Earthquake of Kanto to the Earthquake of Kob\u00e9: The Usefulness and Limitations of Catastrophe Forecasts)&#8221;. The &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/controverse-sur-la-prevision-et-lincidence-des-cat\/\">Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[188,55,1325,1324],"tags":[202],"keyword":[968],"class_list":["post-34391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forum","category-revue-futuribles-en","category-revue-futuribles","tag-environnement-en","keyword-catastrophes-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34391","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34391"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34391\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52604,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34391\/revisions\/52604"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34391"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=34391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}