{"id":29533,"date":"1993-09-01T02:00:00","date_gmt":"1993-09-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/sur-la-demarche-prospective-un-bref-guide-methodol\/"},"modified":"2025-11-06T11:10:24","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T10:10:24","slug":"sur-la-demarche-prospective-un-bref-guide-methodol","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/sur-la-demarche-prospective-un-bref-guide-methodol\/","title":{"rendered":"Sur la d\u00e9marche prospective. Un bref guide m\u00e9thodologique"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='post-container'><p>Prospective. A Brief Methodological Guide<\/p>\n<p>This concise text explains the basic concepts and principal steps of the systematic approach to what is called &#8220;la d\u00e9marche prospective&#8221;, or simply &#8220;la prospective in France&#8221;. The utility and limitations of the method as an aide to decision-making are also addressed.<br \/>\nThe author divides his considerations on the nature of the future into three parts. (1) The domain of freedom : the future is open to several possibilities. (2) The domain of capacity and will : to show the difference and the complementarity between anticipation (exploring the field of the possible) and strategy (the project). He distinguishes &#8220;la d\u00e9marche prospective&#8221; from straightforward forecasting by underscoring its essential character &#8211; a dynamic analysis of systems which integrates discontinuities and ruptures.<br \/>\nHe describes finally the four steps that he judges to be essential in a prospective study :<br \/>\n1) definition of the subject and temporal horizon of the study,<br \/>\n2) systemic analysis and decomposition of the system into key variables,<br \/>\n3) the elaboration of a set of contrasting hypotheses on the future evolution of each variable,<br \/>\n4) exploration of possible combinations among the hypotheses developed for key variables and the elaboration of contrasting scenarios which show the process and final images.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prospective. A Brief Methodological Guide This concise text explains the basic concepts and principal steps of the systematic approach to what is called &#8220;la d\u00e9marche prospective&#8221;, or simply &#8220;la prospective in France&#8221;. The utility and limitations of the method as an aide to decision-making are also addressed. The author divides his considerations on the nature &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/sur-la-demarche-prospective-un-bref-guide-methodol\/\">Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[47,1325,180,1324],"tags":[133],"keyword":[983],"class_list":["post-29533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","category-revue-futuribles-en","category-journal-article","category-revue-futuribles","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","keyword-prospective-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29533"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29533\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52691,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29533\/revisions\/52691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29533"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=29533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}