{"id":127308,"date":"2026-02-13T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/economie-industrie-technologies-1\/"},"modified":"2026-05-11T16:32:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T14:32:14","slug":"economie-industrie-technologies-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/economie-industrie-technologies-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Economy, Industry, Technology #1"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='post-container'>\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">This bimonthly newsletter offers concise forward-looking insights into topics we believe are important for the future. It includes information confirming trends (\u201cstrong signals\u201d), \u201cweak signals\u201d heralding possible changes, disruptive developments worth considering (\u201cWhat if\u2026\u201d), interesting debates about the future, and a selection of recent publications that we consider particularly insightful. This newsletter does not claim to be exhaustive. The topics covered may be explored in greater depth in other Futuribles publications.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span class=\"image-caption-component-legende\"><strong>Contributors to this newsletter: <br \/><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/publications\/?auteur=29062\"><strong>Antoine Le Bec<\/strong><\/a><strong> and <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/author-analyst\/desaunay-cecile\/\"><strong>C\u00e9cile D\u00e9saunay<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wrapper-bloc-component\">\n  <div class=\"wrapper-bloc-component--content\">\n    <h2 class=\"t-post-4 u-margin-b-4\">CONTENTS<\/h2>\n    <p><strong><a href=\"#post-127308-_Toc227595339\">Strong Signals (confirmation of trends)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"#post-127308-_Toc227595340\">Growing integration of security issues into industrial and economic policies<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#post-127308-_Toc227595341\">Green finance flows remain geographically concentrated and insufficient to meet investment needs<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><a href=\"#post-127308-_Toc227595342\">Weak Signals<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"#post-127308-_Toc227595343\">The rise of photovoltaics in Pakistan: towards an energy leapfrog?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#post-127308-_Toc227595344\">Riots and damage to property and persons: towards recognition of a risk difficult to insure?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><a href=\"#post-127308-_Toc227595345\">What If\u2026<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"#post-127308-_Toc227595346\">What if the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble never bursts?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><a href=\"#post-127308-_Toc227595347\">Noteworthy Sources\/Bibliography<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc227595339\"><\/a><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc1206665588\"><\/a>Strong Signals (Confirmation of Trends)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc227595340\"><\/a>Growing integration of security issues into industrial and economic policies<em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/globaltradealert.org\/reports\/how-industrial-policy-changed-in-2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">In 2024-2025, more than half of industrial policy interventions in Western countries are linked to security considerations.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Between 2009 and 2016, Western economies focused their efforts on competitiveness and climate change mitigation. However, since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, governments have become more concerned with security of supply, and geopolitical tensions have led to a marked increase in measures driven by national security from 2023 onwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another trend is that of increased control over foreign direct investment. A <a href=\"https:\/\/fgsglobal.com\/insights\/what-it-takes-to-get-the-deal-done\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">survey by FGS Global<\/a> was conducted among policymakers and opinion leaders in Europe, the United States (US) and Japan. It found that China is subject to the most stringent controls, the Middle East is a source of growing concern, and half of Europeans are calling for greater scrutiny of US investment, reflecting transatlantic tensions and increasing geo-economic instrumentalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sectoral priorities vary across markets: the United States and Japan focus on information and communications technology infrastructure and semiconductors; Europe prioritises energy and strategic raw materials; healthcare and biotechnology are emerging as globally sensitive sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key concerns include: technology transfers, safeguarding jobs, security of supply, links between government and business, subsidies, and the strategic and heritage value of assets.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"image-caption-component u-block  double-left-text\">\n  <div class=\"gs-container image-caption\">\n          <div class=\"wrapper\">\n        <p class=\"caption t-base\">\n          \n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"caption-title t-weight-700\">\n          Stated motives for industrial actions by period (% of actions by stated motive &#038; period)\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n        <div class=\"image-caption-component__img\">\n      <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"666\" src=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-950x666.jpg\" class=\"u-img\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-950x666.jpg 950w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-300x210.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-1024x718.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-768x539.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-1536x1077.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-1283x900.jpg 1283w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-815x572.jpg 815w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-320x224.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-200x140.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-540x379.jpg 540w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-700x491.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust-650x456.jpg 650w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph2_MotivationPolIndust.jpg 1577w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" \/>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n  <div class=\"image-caption-component-legende\">\n    <p><em>Source:<\/em> <span class=\"small-caps\">Mart\u00edn<\/span> Fernando, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/globaltradealert.org\/reports\/how-industrial-policy-changed-in-2025\">Security First: How Industrial Policy Changed in 2025<\/a>\u201d, Global Trade Alert (Zeitgeist Series, <em>Briefing<\/em> #79), 18\u00a0December 2025.<\/p>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Against a backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions, industrial and trade policies will increasingly incorporate these issues of national security and control over supply chains. For the European Union, Donald Trump\u2019s undermining of the transatlantic relationship creates a new sense of urgency, compounded by growing technological and industrial competition from China. Digital, defence, energy, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, transport, agriculture: all sectors are affected.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"image-caption-component u-block  double-left-text\">\n  <div class=\"gs-container image-caption\">\n          <div class=\"wrapper\">\n        <p class=\"caption t-base\">\n          \n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"caption-title t-weight-700\">\n          \u201cWhich sectors should be treated as particularly sensitive when considering foreign direct investment?\u201d (% by country)\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n        <div class=\"image-caption-component__img\">\n      <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"535\" src=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-950x535.jpg\" class=\"u-img\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-950x535.jpg 950w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-1536x865.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-1599x900.jpg 1599w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-815x459.jpg 815w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-320x180.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-200x113.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-540x304.jpg 540w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-700x394.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE-650x366.jpg 650w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NV3_Graph3_SecteursSensiblesIDE.jpg 1890w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" \/>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n  <div class=\"image-caption-component-legende\">\n    <p><em>Source:<\/em> \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/fgsglobal.com\/insights\/what-it-takes-to-get-the-deal-done\">What It Takes to Get the Deal Done: The Politics of Cross-Border Deals Today<\/a>\u201d, FGS Global, 4\u00a0December 2025.<\/p>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc1277459841\"><\/a><strong>For further reading, see <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/lintegration-des-enjeux-de-securite-dans-les-politiques-economiques\/\"><strong>Antoine Le Bec\u2019s newswatch on the subject<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc227595341\"><\/a>Green finance flows remain geographically concentrated and insufficient to meet investment needs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Green finance flows remain significantly below the needs for mitigation and adaptation: this is revealed in the 2025 edition of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the Global Landscape of Climate Finance<\/a><em>, <\/em>published ahead of COP30 in Bel\u00e9m, which provides an overview of finance flows for climate change mitigation and adaptation on a global scale. They reached a historic high in 2023 but remain three times lower than the most conservative estimates of annual investment needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the current rate of growth, the expected level of investment needs would only be reached in 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investments in climate change mitigation account for 94% of flows (primarily in energy systems and transport). Adaptation accounts for just $65 billion, far short of the $222 billion needed annually by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-123962-_Toc221797082\"><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"image-caption-component u-block  double-left-text\">\n  <div class=\"gs-container image-caption\">\n          <div class=\"wrapper\">\n        <p class=\"caption t-base\">\n          \n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"caption-title t-weight-700\">\n          Climate finance public-private split (in billions of US dollars)\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n        <div class=\"image-caption-component__img\">\n      <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"569\" src=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-950x569.jpg\" class=\"u-img\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-950x569.jpg 950w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-1024x613.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-768x460.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-1536x920.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-1503x900.jpg 1503w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-815x488.jpg 815w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-320x192.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-200x120.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-540x323.jpg 540w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-700x419.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat-650x389.jpg 650w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph3FinanceClimat.jpg 1772w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" \/>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n  <div class=\"image-caption-component-legende\">\n    <p><em>Source:<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Global-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-2025-Summary-Handout.pdf\"><em>Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The share of private financing is on the rise (66%): the main contributors are households and individuals through investment in equipment linked to the energy transition (electric vehicles, solar panels, building insulation etc.). Public financing has fallen by 13% due to increasingly constrained government budgets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over 90% of climate finance has been provided in the form of debt and equity; as a result, climate finance flows remain largely directed towards regions where the cost of capital and risk are lower. 80% of investment sources are domestic. These are concentrated in China, Western Europe and North America. International flows to developing economies remain well below needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This report does not shed light on the financial consequences of the current context of geopolitical realignment and the questioning of climate policies in the United States and Europe. These trends will need to be monitored closely, but they must not overshadow the analysis of the structural asymmetries of the international financial system, particularly in its capacity to finance future-oriented investments that are less profitable, or even unprofitable, across all regions of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc227595342\"><\/a>Weak Signals<a id=\"post-127308-_Toc1037446172\"><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc227595343\"><\/a><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc731567049\"><\/a>The rise of photovoltaics in Pakistan: towards an energy leapfrog?&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Faced with a severe energy crisis, <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/05\/01\/climate\/pakistan-solar-boom\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pakistan has seen a massive increase in its solar panel installations<\/a>, rising from 3 gigawatts (GW) in 2022 to 16 GW in 2024. Although the government has introduced tax, financial and customs incentives, this dynamic growth is primarily the result of households buying Chinese solar panels on a massive scale, taking advantage of the sharp fall in prices. Pakistan is now the world\u2019s third-largest importer of solar panels. The share of this energy source in its electricity generation reached 10% in 2024, double that of the previous year. This growth in self-consumption is not without causing major challenges for the electricity grid operator. In some regions of Pakistan, negative prices are already being observed, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/sustainability\/boards-policy-regulation\/pakistan-says-rooftop-solar-output-exceed-grid-demand-some-hubs-next-year-2025-11-22\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">illustrating instances of temporary overproduction<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"image-caption-component u-block  double-left-text\">\n  <div class=\"gs-container image-caption\">\n          <div class=\"wrapper\">\n        <p class=\"caption t-base\">\n          \n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"caption-title t-weight-700\">\n          China\u2019s solar panel exports to Pakistan (in GW)\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n        <div class=\"image-caption-component__img\">\n      <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-950x375.jpg\" class=\"u-img\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-950x375.jpg 950w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-300x119.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-1024x405.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-768x303.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-1536x607.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-815x322.jpg 815w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-320x126.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-200x79.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-540x213.jpg 540w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-700x277.jpg 700w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan-650x257.jpg 650w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Graph4panneauxPVpakistan.jpg 1772w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" \/>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n  <div class=\"image-caption-component-legende\">\n    <p><em>Source:<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/05\/01\/climate\/pakistan-solar-boom\">Ember\/CNN<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Could Pakistan be one of the first examples of leapfrogging in the energy sector? In economic and innovation theory, this concept refers to the adoption of a new technology by bypassing the stages of development historically observed in countries that are now wealthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This example also illustrates the tension between an energy transition often perceived as being planned and steered by the State and the network operator (a top-down approach), and a dynamic of rapid evolution in practices and technologies, giving households and businesses an increasingly driving role in this transition (a bottom-up approach).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc227595344\"><\/a>Riots and damage to property and persons: towards recognition of a risk difficult to insure?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In response to the ongoing riots, the French government has recently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesechos.fr\/finance-marches\/banque-assurances\/taxe-casseurs-face-aux-critiques-le-gouvernement-recentre-le-dispositif-sur-les-zones-les-plus-exposees-2211632\">revised its proposed \u201crioter tax\u201d<\/a> (as part of the 2026 Finance Bill), which is mandatory and targeted at the areas most at risk. Funded mainly by insurers, it would enable the creation of a mutualisation fund managed by the Caisse centrale de r\u00e9assurance (CCR\/Central Reinsurance Fund). Only significant risks would be ceded to the State and would therefore benefit from its guarantee. This development follows the rejection of a \u201criots\u201d guarantee financed by an insurance surcharge across the whole territory, modelled on the CatNat scheme (natural disasters regime).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following the riots of June-July 2023 (the death of Nahel), insured losses were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.franceassureurs.fr\/espace-presse\/les-communiques-de-presse\/cout-sinistres-declares-violences-urbains-fin-juin-reevalue-730millions-euros\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">revised upwards to \u20ac730 million<\/a>. Total property damage is estimated at between <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senat.fr\/rap\/r23-521\/r23-521-syn.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u20ac700 million and \u20ac1 billion<\/a>, whilst the economic costs actually borne by local stakeholders amount to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cci.fr\/actualites\/la-cote-dalerte-est-depassee-les-cci-de-france-reagissent-au-projet-dune-nouvelle-baisse-de-leur-ressource-prevue-par-le-projet-de-loi-de-finances\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u20ac1.5 to \u20ac2 billion<\/a>\u2014the majority of these costs remaining uncompensated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Violence involving harm to people and property combines several unfavourable characteristics: the same sites are affected repeatedly, which reduces the dispersion and sharing of risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">International comparisons shed light on the options available. In the United Kingdom, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.legislation.gov.uk\/ukpga\/2016\/8\/contents\">Riot Compensation Act<\/a> (amended in 2016) establishes a right to public compensation for certain material damage caused by riots, including where insurance is insufficient. In Germany, following the G20 violence in Hamburg (2017), a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bundesregierung.de\/breg-en\/service\/archive\/archive\/swift-and-unbureaucratic-assistance-406660\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">public fund was set up to compensate businesses and residents<\/a>. These schemes demonstrate that integration is legally possible, but that it requires an explicit political decision regarding the scope, funding and prevention of risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking ahead to 2035, the issue goes beyond insurance: keeping a recurring risk of violence outside the scope of mutualisation increases the risk of lasting economic decapitalisation in certain areas, and creates a persistent divide between exposed and unexposed areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc227595345\"><\/a>What If\u2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc227595346\"><\/a>What if the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble never bursts?&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An increasing number of analysts view the current surge in AI investment as a financial bubble. Entrepreneur and former co-chair of the National Digital Council, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/gillesbabinet_les-deux-visuels-ci-apr%C3%A8s-issus-dun-article-activity-7414027516123824128-yToP\/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAACbIZvYBpNkNnce9BuE3ngxm7yX6rzVcYYc\">Gilles Babinet, shares some insights into the state of this \u201cbubble\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US stock market capitalisation is equivalent to twice the country\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP), half of which is attributable to the tech sector alone. Nearly 90% of US GDP growth in 2025 is linked to the AI sector, with around 40% of this linked to circular investments between the sector\u2019s giants. As a result, Wall Street and the real economy appear highly vulnerable to a reversal of this dynamic. For now, productivity gains measured at the macroeconomic level, well below 1%, fall short of the promises of radical innovation (and thus of corporate profits).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enough to burst the bubble? <a href=\"https:\/\/emmanuelrmartin.substack.com\/p\/et-si-la-bulle-de-lia-neclatait-jamais\">Emmanuel Martin, a professor of economics and sociology, raises the possibility of a \u201crational bubble\u201d<\/a>: even if few people believe in the promise of value creation, it is in investors\u2019 interests to pretend they do. Drawing on the concept of the \u201crotten web\u201d, he describes the strategy of the tech giants as aiming to serve captive customers with very low-cost, poor-quality content that is accepted simply because there is no alternative. Thus, if the majority of Internet users accept AI-generated content as a stopgap, the bubble will not burst tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the bubble were to burst, this could lead to a consolidation of the sector, with the most profitable players then able to build new technologies and infrastructure on a sounder footing. This was the case during the railway mania, the bursting of which did not prevent the rail transport revolution. The risks to the real economy from these financial crises depend on the source of funding. In this case, there is little bank financing in AI investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-127308-_Toc227595347\"><\/a>Noteworthy Sources\/Bibliography<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 Adam David, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-025-04100-6\">Science in 2050: The Future Breakthroughs That Will Shape Our World\u2014and Beyond<\/a>\u201d, <em>Nature<\/em>, vol. 649, no.&nbsp;8095, 2026, pp. 18-20. <br \/>This article provides an overview of the prospects for research, science and innovation by 2050. Concise and incisive, it draws on interviews with researchers and foresight specialists to identify the technological and scientific breakthroughs likely to occur by the middle of the century, ranging from nuclear fusion to the settlement of humans on Mars, including general artificial intelligence. Going beyond mere predictions, this article highlights the associated uncertainties and challenges. It also highlights the societal challenges linked to scientific research, notably responses to climate change, the governance of emerging technologies, and the role of funding and public policy in shaping the long-term direction of research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 The World Bank\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/publication\/wdr2025\">World Development Report 2025<\/a> provides the first comprehensive exploration of the role of standards and norms in global economic development. It highlights that almost half of global trade is now subject to non-tariff measures linked to standards, which creates opportunities but also significant costs, particularly for developing countries that often have limited capacity to comply with or participate in the development of international standards. Following a historical overview, the report explores current trends and issues relating to standards. It discusses how standards can contribute to economic growth, trade, innovation and its dissemination, as well as to better governance, the development of human capital and environmental protection. This comprehensive publication serves as a key reference on standards, a subject that is little known yet essential to understanding the global economy. Readers will be able to find useful insights and analytical frameworks within this 400-page volume, tailored to their specific interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 The third edition of <em>the<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/wir2026.wid.world\/\"><em>World Inequality Report 2026<\/em><\/a> provides an updated overview of global inequality, showing that the gap between rich and poor remains extremely wide: the richest 10% hold around three-quarters of global wealth, whilst the poorest half hold just 2%. The richest 0.001% control more than three times the wealth of the poorest 50%. Drawing on the work of 200 researchers affiliated with the World Inequality Lab, the report highlights further dimensions of inequality in the<sup>21st <\/sup>century: the links between wealth concentration and climate responsibility, disparities in access to human capital, persistent gender gaps, and the asymmetries of the international financial system that favour rich countries. It also emphasises that inequalities manifest themselves not only between countries but also within them, with territorial divides and political rifts that weaken the coalitions necessary for effective redistributive policies. Finally, the report offers policy avenues to reduce these inequalities\u2014progressive taxation, investment in education and health, reform of tax and financial systems, and the integration of climate justice\u2014whilst emphasising that these choices depend on political will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2022 In late 2025, the French <a href=\"https:\/\/www.senat.fr\/rap\/r25-010\/r25-010_mono.html\">Senate Committee on Foresight<\/a> published a report on the possible shifts in the values underpinning economic systems by 2050. It begins with the observation that the pursuit of economic growth has become the dominant value in our societies, but that this historical paradigm is showing its limitations in the face of challenges such as ecological crises, inequality, an ageing population and the degradation of ecosystems. The first part analyses how growth has established itself as the central frame of prosperity, often obscuring the social and environmental costs. The second part highlights the erosion of the link between economic development and human progress, pointing to the need to integrate the health of living systems and social well-being more fully into our assessments. The report then proposes new conceptual and methodological tools for rethinking economic value: alternative indicators to GDP, accounting approaches that better account for ecological and social externalities, and governance tools suited to the long term. Four scenarios for 2050 and three broad public policy directions are proposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>For further reading, see <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/evolution-des-valeurs-dans-le-champ-economique-a-lhorizon-2050\/\"><strong>J\u00e9zabel Couppey-Soubeyran\u2019s review on the subject<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"gs-container in-content-also\">\n  <div class=\"gs-row u-flex u-align-items-start\">\n    <div class=\"gs-flush-column @lg:-push-1 @lg:gs-column-7 @wd:gs-column-6 @wd:gs-push-2\">\n      <p>\u2022 <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2025\/12\/16\/2025-les-grandes-tendances-de-leconomie-en-10-graphiques\/\"><em>Le Grand Continent <\/em>recently published a special report<\/a> on major trends in the global economy, summarised in 10 charts. Several of these trends are worth noting.<\/p>\n<p>The main disruption of 2025 is the rise in US tariffs, which reach 18% on average globally, but over 35% for imports of Chinese and Indian goods. Nevertheless, the impact of this rise on economic growth was less severe than economists had feared in early 2025.<\/p>\n<p>In response, Chinese exports have gradually been redirected towards other trading partners, notably Europe. The US economy remains broadly dynamic but faces several challenges. The eurozone has managed to stabilise its inflation around this threshold, but economic growth there remains weak&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Most developed countries are facing very high debt levels, though there are significant differences between European countries. Overall, 2025 appears to be a year of realignment in the major global economic balances, characterised by rising protectionism, the adjustment of value chains, shifts in monetary policy strategies, and the persistence of significant internal tensions within advanced economies.<\/p>\n\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"gs-flush-column @lg:gs-column-5 @wd:gs-column-4 u-flex u-align-items-start u-sticky article-card\">\n      <div class=\"wrapper u-width-100% u-flex-column u-relative\">\n        <span class=\"c-red t-base-small u-margin-b-2\">Voir aussi<\/span>\n        <div class=\"card card--post \">\n  <div class=\"masonry-item item-withImage\">\n          <span class=\"u-margin-b-2 u-block card--post__image\">\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/population-societe-modes-de-vie-1\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"598\" height=\"374\" src=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/POP-lettres-de-veille-prospective.jpg\" class=\"u-img\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/POP-lettres-de-veille-prospective.jpg 598w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/POP-lettres-de-veille-prospective-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/POP-lettres-de-veille-prospective-320x200.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/POP-lettres-de-veille-prospective-200x125.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/POP-lettres-de-veille-prospective-540x338.jpg 540w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 598px) 100vw, 598px\" \/><\/a>\n  <\/span>\n        <span class=\"t-post-5 u-margin-b-1 u-block c-red\">\n    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/population-societe-modes-de-vie-1\/\">Population, Society, Lifestyles #1<\/a>\n              <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/themes\/futurible\/dist\/images\/pay_circle.svg\" class=\"v-align-sub u-margin-l-1 icon-pay\"\/>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/population-societe-modes-de-vie-1\/\" class=\"button-rounded  bg-red c-white u-margin-l-1\">\n      <svg class=\"u-icon-24 c-white u-flex u-align-items-center u-justify-content-center\">\n  <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/themes\/futurible\/dist\/images\/icon-lib.svg?version022025#arrow-right\"><\/use>\n<\/svg>\n    <\/a>\n  <\/span>\n          <div class=\"metas t-base-x-small u-flex u-flex-wrapping\">\n      <div class=\"u-margin-r-3 u-margin-t-1\">5 February 2026<\/div>\n                    <div class=\"u-margin-t-1\">\n                      14 min.\n                  <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n    <div class=\"tags u-flex u-flex-wrapping u-align-items-start\">\n              <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/category\/partner-paper\/\" class=\"button tag border c-red t-base-small\">\n          <svg class=\"u-icon-16 u-margin-r-1\">\n  <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/themes\/futurible\/dist\/images\/icon-lib.svg?version022025#icon-document\"><\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n          Partner Paper\n        <\/a>\n                              <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/tag\/science-et-technique-en\/\" class=\"button tag t-base-small\">Science and Technology<\/a>\n                  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/tag\/societe-en\/\" class=\"button tag t-base-small\">Society<\/a>\n                  <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"@lg:gs-column-8 u-margin-auto\">\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This bimonthly newsletter offers concise forward-looking insights into topics we believe are important for the future. It includes information confirming trends (\u201cstrong signals\u201d), \u201cweak signals\u201d heralding possible changes, disruptive developments worth considering (\u201cWhat if\u2026\u201d), interesting debates about the future, and a selection of recent publications that we consider particularly insightful. This newsletter does not claim &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/economie-industrie-technologies-1\/\">Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":127310,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[198],"tags":[133,210],"keyword":[],"class_list":["post-127308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-partner-paper","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-science-et-technique-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127308","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=127308"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127308\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":127373,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127308\/revisions\/127373"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/127310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=127308"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=127308"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=127308"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=127308"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}