{"id":124292,"date":"2026-02-26T09:23:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T08:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/?p=124292"},"modified":"2026-02-16T12:16:02","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T11:16:02","slug":"leurope-face-a-la-guerre-russe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/leurope-face-a-la-guerre-russe\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe and the Russian War"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Four years have passed since Ukraine was invaded by Russia. On the ground, the contending forces are now involved in a war of attrition. And at the diplomatic level, talks have made little progress, despite intermittent pressure on the parties from President Trump, who, while attempting to please both sides, has never achieved a lasting ceasefire or a peace agreement. The war remains a central concern in Europe, but the question of what position to adopt against a backdrop of increasing US disengagement is still up for debate. As the conflict goes on, there is increased polarization and it is becoming increasingly difficult for Europeans to agree on a strategy. As Joris Van Bladel sees it, this situation is the product of the co-existence of a number of incompatible\u2014if not, indeed, irreconcilable\u2014interpretative frames: these increase Europe\u2019s strategic vulnerability and Moscow is exploiting them to its advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Van Bladel invites us here to disregard what is very largely an ideological debate on the Russian side and to proceed on the basis of a close observation of the facts which, in his view, reveals a strategy based on three pillars: (1) violence and the use of force (which he calls \u2018fire\u2019)\u2014the driving force of the system producing the losses and destruction; (2) a long-term face-off between Russia and Europe, including the Atlantic Alliance (\u2018ice\u2019); and (3) \u2018fog\u2019, by which he means the lack of clear information from Moscow, including about its defence capabilities etc. According to Joris Van Bladel, such a threefold approach imposes a certain discipline on the analysis, removing gaps in our understanding that arise out of one-dimensional readings of the situation and enabling us to arrive at a common interpretation, an essential stage in devising a shared strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article is downloadable only in French. It is not available in English.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Four years have passed since Ukraine was invaded by Russia. On the ground, the contending forces are now involved in a war of attrition. And at the diplomatic level, talks have made little progress, despite intermittent pressure on the parties from President Trump, who, while attempting to please both sides, has never achieved a lasting … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":124220,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1325,180],"tags":[203],"keyword":[884,1075,980,1000,1052,865,1250,906],"class_list":["post-124292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-revue-futuribles-en","category-journal-article","tag-geopolitique-en","keyword-politique-de-defense-en","keyword-europe-en","keyword-information-en","keyword-politique-internationale-en","keyword-russie-en","keyword-strategie-methode-en","keyword-ukraine-en","keyword-guerre-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=124292"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124292\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":124404,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124292\/revisions\/124404"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/124220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=124292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=124292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=124292"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=124292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}