{"id":111110,"date":"2025-03-27T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-27T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/donald-trump-et-lasie-du-sud-est-une-relation-compliquee\/"},"modified":"2025-05-19T16:57:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T14:57:51","slug":"donald-trump-et-lasie-du-sud-est-une-relation-compliquee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/donald-trump-et-lasie-du-sud-est-une-relation-compliquee\/","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump and Southeast Asia: a complicated relationship"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='post-container'>\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House has been met with mixed reactions in South-East Asia. Quite apart from the fact that the previous term in office left mixed memories in the region, there is considerable concern about the intentions and reliability of the 47<sup>th<\/sup> President of the United States. The concern about intensification of the trade war with China could have adverse effects on a regionalisation that has become essential to economic growth and even stability. Unless, on the other hand, it speeds up intra-Asian rapprochement and, by extension, distances the region a little more from the United States, a partner power perceived as increasingly disruptive.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elected on 5 November 2024, the 47<sup>th<\/sup> President of the United States, Donald Trump, was congratulated by all the countries of South-East Asia. But since his inauguration on January 20, 2025 Donald Trump\u2019s return has raised questions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Can South-East Asia do without the US guarantee?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Can the US economy do without the source of growth represented by East Asia, <em>i.e.<\/em> the bloc made up of ASEAN + 3 (APT)?<sup><a href=\"#post-111110-footnote-1\" id=\"post-111110-footnote-ref-1\">[1]<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What does the future hold for trade agreements\u2014the IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework) launched by the Biden administration in May 2022 and the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TransPacific Partnership) signed in March 2018 (after the United States abruptly withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in January 2017)\u2014when the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership signed in November 2020) confirms the dynamic centrality of intra-regional circuits?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How will US investment develop\u2014in relative decline compared to Asian investment (Japan\/China\/Taiwan\/South Korea)\u2014while needs remain enormous?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What kind of political rapprochement could there be? Is the arrival of Donald Trump good news for the authoritarian regimes of Southeast Asia? Will there be a regression towards democracy in the region?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Could there be security shifts? Are we heading for a new Asian security order when Donald Trump wants to \u201cisolate China\u201d and thus cause a division in East Asia?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The constant turmoil and unpredictability of the new American president are no traits that Asian countries appreciate. Tensions are expected to be highly disruptive throughout the region, and it is not impossible that, in order to avoid them, the countries of South-East Asia will adopt a wait-and-see attitude. They have already announced their refusal to \u201cchoose\u201d: \u201cpolarity is not an option\u201d. Why sacrifice a flourishing relationship with China for a random commitment from Washington? It is not forgotten in Singapore that during Donald Trump\u2019s first term in office, the post of US ambassador remained vacant for three years running, and that the President did not attend most of the multilateral meetings organised there. South-East Asia\u2019s expectations are therefore fairly low, and it is organising itself accordingly, pragmatically and without panic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet the negative signals are mounting: on the trade front, President Trump is unlikely to commit to either the IPEF or the CPTPP, leaving Southeast Asian members with an uncomfortable choice about the future of these groupings. Similarly, maintaining a policy of systemic rivalry with China raises fears of more complex supply chain management, with increased licensing and certification requirements. Access to the US market is likely to become more difficult for South-East Asian exports that contain Chinese inputs, incidentally pushing them to choose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During his election campaign, Donald Trump announced that he wanted to punish the bypassing countries with which the US trade deficit has grown\u2014Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand spring to mind\u2014with the exception of Singapore, which signed a free trade agreement with Washington in May 2003. The ASEAN economies will be competing with each other. But what is the reasonable choice between a proactive and flexible Asia-Pacific, where the markets of tomorrow are to be found (there are 800 million \u201cmillennials\u201d living there, compared with 66 million in the United States), and an injunctive and \u201cdisruptive\u201d United States? The figures on the ground provide an initial answer: by 2023, ASEAN will have become China\u2019s biggest export market, ahead of the United States (China has been ASEAN\u2019s biggest market since 2009).<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"gs-container in-content-also\">\n  <div class=\"gs-row u-flex u-align-items-start\">\n    <div class=\"gs-flush-column @lg:-push-1 @lg:gs-column-7 @wd:gs-column-6 @wd:gs-push-2\">\n      <p>On all fronts, and despite the committed policy of the Biden administration, the United States is retreating to the benefit of its other Asian partners: it is not just China\u2019s dominant position, at the centre of the game, but the activism of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan that is giving this East Asian region a real depth, as well as the resources to protect itself from Trumpian bluster. As we demonstrate throughout our book,<sup><a id=\"post-111110-footnote-ref-2\" href=\"#post-111110-footnote-2\">[2]<\/a><\/sup> today the capacity for regional resistance is stronger than it was in 2016. Dialogues, both institutionalised and informal, exist at all levels, nurturing the reality of a space under construction, much better able to protect itself from American summonses.<\/p>\n<p>In the field of security, this binary diplomacy (\u201cthem or us\u201d) is just as displeasing to the states of South-East Asia, who see American interest in them at its true value: they are being used as an adjustment variable. The first worrying sign: at his Senate confirmation hearing on January 14, 2025, Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump\u2019s nominee for Secretary of Defence, was unable to name a single ASEAN country; he even named Australia instead&#8230; Similarly, Donald Trump\u2019s revisionist policy on international law and border security could potentially have major consequences in the event of conflict in the South China Sea or Taiwan. How much confidence can we place in such allies?<\/p>\n<p>The United States is looking less and less like a credible security fulcrum in the face of an Asia-Pacific that appears more constant, and also more collaborative. The lesson given to President Zelensky at the White House by the President and Vice-President on 28 February revived humiliations that are still vivid in Asian memories. The following day, the<em> Jakarta Post <\/em>called for no support for an ally that defends only its own interests and could care less about those of its allies. And as in other areas, intra-Asian security cooperation is making strong progress.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, the withdrawal of the United States from its traditional regional and global role will create gaps and potential opportunities for Southeast Asian nations to play a more assertive role in multilateral or regional trade groupings and negotiations.<\/p>\n\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"gs-flush-column @lg:gs-column-5 @wd:gs-column-4 u-flex u-align-items-start u-sticky article-card\">\n      <div class=\"wrapper u-width-100% u-flex-column u-relative\">\n        <span class=\"c-red t-base-small u-margin-b-2\">Voir aussi<\/span>\n        <div class=\"card card--post \">\n  <div class=\"masonry-item item-withImage\">\n          <span class=\"u-margin-b-2 u-block card--post__image\">\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/lindo-pacifique\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"598\" height=\"366\" src=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/IndoPacifique_site.jpg\" class=\"u-img center-landscapeImg\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/IndoPacifique_site.jpg 598w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/IndoPacifique_site-300x184.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/IndoPacifique_site-320x196.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/IndoPacifique_site-200x122.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/IndoPacifique_site-540x331.jpg 540w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 598px) 100vw, 598px\" \/><\/a>\n  <\/span>\n        <span class=\"t-post-5 u-margin-b-1 u-block c-red\">\n    <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/lindo-pacifique\/\">L\u2019Indo-Pacifique<\/a>\n              <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/themes\/futurible\/dist\/images\/pay_circle.svg\" class=\"v-align-sub u-margin-l-1 icon-pay\"\/>\n                <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/lindo-pacifique\/\" class=\"button-rounded  bg-red c-white u-margin-l-1\">\n      <svg class=\"u-icon-24 c-white u-flex u-align-items-center u-justify-content-center\">\n  <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/themes\/futurible\/dist\/images\/icon-lib.svg?version022025#arrow-right\"><\/use>\n<\/svg>\n    <\/a>\n  <\/span>\n          <div class=\"metas t-base-x-small u-flex u-flex-wrapping\">\n      <div class=\"u-margin-r-3 u-margin-t-1\">3 February 2025<\/div>\n                        <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/author-analyst\/lamballe-alain-2\/\" class=\"u-margin-r-3 u-margin-t-1 t-underline\">LAMBALLE Alain<\/a>\n                            <div class=\"u-margin-t-1\">\n                      7 min.\n                  <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n    <div class=\"tags u-flex u-flex-wrapping u-align-items-start\">\n              <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/category\/read-seen-heard\/\" class=\"button tag border c-red t-base-small\">\n          <svg class=\"u-icon-16 u-margin-r-1\">\n  <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/wp-content\/themes\/futurible\/dist\/images\/icon-lib.svg?version022025#icon-news\"><\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n          Read, Seen, Heard\n        <\/a>\n                              <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/tag\/geopolitique-en\/\" class=\"button tag t-base-small\">Geopolitics<\/a>\n                  <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"@lg:gs-column-8 u-margin-auto\">\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;&#8212; <br \/><span class=\"image-caption-component-legende\"><em>N.B.: <\/em>this note is taken from the <em>Lettre confidentielle Asie21-Futuribles<\/em>, no. 190, January 2025, updated by the author in mid-March 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013 <br \/><em><span class=\"image-caption-component-legende\">N.B.: this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<ol>\n<li id=\"post-111110-footnote-1\">\n<p>APT (ASEAN + 3) comprises the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People\u2019s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. <a href=\"#post-111110-footnote-ref-1\">\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li id=\"post-111110-footnote-2\">\n<p><span class=\"small-caps\">Boisseau du Rocher<\/span> Sophie and <span class=\"small-caps\">Lechervy<\/span> Christian, <em>L\u2019Asie-Pacifique. Nouveau centre du monde<\/em>, Paris: Odile Jacob, January 2025. <a href=\"#post-111110-footnote-ref-2\">\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House has been met with mixed reactions in South-East Asia. Quite apart from the fact that the previous term in office left mixed memories in the region, there is considerable concern about the intentions and reliability of the 47th President of the United States. The concern about intensification of &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/donald-trump-et-lasie-du-sud-est-une-relation-compliquee\/\">Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":104591,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[140,16],"tags":[133,203],"keyword":[951,851,896,845,2696,1094,909],"class_list":["post-111110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newswatch","category-note-de-veille","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-geopolitique-en","keyword-asie-en","keyword-economie-internationale-en","keyword-relations-internationales-en","keyword-commerce-international-en","keyword-safety","keyword-asie-du-sud-est-en","keyword-etats-unis-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111110"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":120514,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111110\/revisions\/120514"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111110"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=111110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}