{"id":111094,"date":"2025-02-06T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/la-chine-a-lassaut-du-marche-mondial-des-vehicules-doccasion\/"},"modified":"2025-06-13T16:59:53","modified_gmt":"2025-06-13T14:59:53","slug":"la-chine-a-lassaut-du-marche-mondial-des-vehicules-doccasion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/la-chine-a-lassaut-du-marche-mondial-des-vehicules-doccasion\/","title":{"rendered":"China assaults the global used car market"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By commissioning a shipping platform for used cars, China is putting itself in a position to take over the high-end used car market in Africa and South America, relegating Europe to second place. The China Daily <\/em>website made the announcement<\/a>: on 22 November 2024, this port platform dedicated to the export of used cars opened its doors in Shanghai.<\/h6>\n\n\n<\/div>\n
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China\u2019s used car export is a new business that started five years ago but is developing rapidly. In 2019, in order to promote high-quality development of foreign trade and boost the domestic automobile consumer market, China\u2019s Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs and Ministry of Public Security jointly launched a nationwide pilot programme for the export of used vehicles.[1]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

China is merely following Japan\u2019s lead, where the constant renewal of models, which has led to hundreds of thousands of second-hand vehicles being placed on the market, led manufacturers to set up export chains for second-hand vehicles several years ago. Admittedly, Chinese flows have remained contained until now. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, no more than 275,000 vehicles were exported in 2023, at a value of around 6.9 billion US dollars. But this market is set to surge with the arrival in force of electric vehicles, which are taking the place of traditional vehicles that will be on the road for a long time to come.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Are we Moving towards Chinese Leadership in the Automotive Sector?<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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26 August 2024<\/div>\n LE BEC Antoine<\/a>\n
\n 22 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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As a result, there is a growing supply of vehicles, still of value, to be exploited \u2014 currently high-end cars, selling for around 25,000 US dollars each, according to 2024 data. As a result, a growing number of service providers in China are offering turnkey reconditioned vehicles to overseas customers in Africa and South America. One of the main operators, Zhuzhou Yitongda International Trade Co, claims to distribute them in more than 100 countries, to importers, second-hand dealers and even private online buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like its Chinese competitors, it offers a comprehensive service with full guarantees. The cars are reconditioned, in terms of appearance, interior trim and safety. The vehicles comply with the environmental protection standards and technical specifications required by the destination countries. All export procedures, customs duties and certification are taken care of.[2]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a market derived from the electric vehicle market, in which China is set to take dominant positions. A global market in which Europe, which is currently marginal, should only be able to play second fiddle at best.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Outlook for the global ICE car market<\/h2>\n

In a recent report, the International Transport Forum <\/a>(ITF) points out that old vehicles imported from abroad account for 40% of sales in Central Asia, 67% in North Africa and 95% in sub-Saharan Africa (compared with 1% in northern countries excluding intra-regional trade). The average age of these vehicles is 12 years in North Africa and 16 years in sub-Saharan Africa. These are almost exclusively ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles.<\/p>\n

In developed countries, vehicles that leave the fleet can either be scrapped or exported to developing countries. The export rate is one-third in Japan and South Korea, and 7% in Europe and North America. The ITF estimates that this rate could rise in China from 1% today to 22% in 2035. The volumes involved are massive given the size of the Chinese installed base. From 2035 onwards, China will see almost 25 million vehicles taken off the road each year, a figure that could rise to 30 million by 2050. If 7% of these vehicles were to be exported, 5 million old Chinese vehicles could be exported each year, i.e.<\/em> half the total volume. This volume would then stabilise. In a high scenario with a 35% export rate, China would account for two-thirds of the global export volume, with 8 million vehicles.<\/p>\n

Modelled export of used vehicles by region of origins, according to three variants for China, by 2050 (in millions)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Reading: <\/em>the figure shows scenarios for the scale-up of Chinese used car exports, assuming a linear increase from 1% in 2022 to between 7% (equivalent to export rates in Europe and North America) and 36% (equivalent to export rates in Japan and Korea, respectively) and a middle estimate of 22% by 2035.
\nSource: <\/em>New but Used: The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Global Second-hand Car Trade<\/em><\/a>, ITF\/OECD, December 2023, p. 25.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Africa, where the car ownership rate is low outside the region\u2019s main markets (South Africa, Maghreb), Chinese vehicles could see growing penetration via used vehicle exports. The main suppliers of old vehicles to sub-Saharan African countries are currently Europe (47% in 2019), Japan and South Korea (33%), and North America (20%). By 2050, the ITF estimates that China could account for 45% of these imports. The share of old Chinese vehicles would thus reach almost a quarter of the car fleet in sub-Saharan Africa in 2050.<\/p>\n

Estimated passenger car stock for selected regions with significant used imports by region of origin (in millions)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Reading: <\/em>the figure shows the total regional passenger car stock, coloured by the region in which the vehicles were first sold. \u201cLocal\u201d refers to vehicles in the stock that were newly sold within this region. Countries included in each region are listed in the appendix. The relative shares of used imports originating from each region are kept constant for traditional exporter regions but scaled downwards to account for the increasing share of exports from China, assumed to be 22% of the vehicle outflows, as shown in the previous graph. <\/span>
\nSource: <\/em>New but Used: The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Global Second-hand Car Trade<\/em><\/a>, ITF \/ OECD, December 2023, p. 26.<\/span><\/p>\n

These models are obviously subject to considerable uncertainties due to their assumptions, and do not take into account potential changes, particularly in the geopolitical context or the scale of the energy transition.<\/p>\n

Antoine Le Bec, Futuribles<\/em><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

—– <\/span>
Source: <\/em>this note is taken from the Lettre confidentielle Asie21-Futuribles<\/em>, no. 189, December 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013 <\/span>
N.B.:<\/em> this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the authors and Futuribles.<\/span><\/p>\n

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  1. \n

    \u201cChina\u2019s First Port-based Used Car Export Service Center Opens in Shanghai<\/a>\u201d, China Daily<\/em>, 22 November 2024. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    See the \u201cOne-stop Foreign Trade Export Supporting Services for Used Cars<\/a>\u201d page, which describes the services offered by Yitongda. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    By commissioning a shipping platform for used cars, China is putting itself in a position to take over the high-end used car market in Africa and South America, relegating Europe to second place. The China Daily website made the announcement: on 22 November 2024, this port platform dedicated to the export of used cars opened … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":101832,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[133],"keyword":[1216,1068,953,845,932],"class_list":["post-111094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-note-de-veille","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","keyword-indautomobile-en","keyword-automobiles-en","keyword-chine-en","keyword-commerce-international-en","keyword-marche-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111094"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111094\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":112142,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111094\/revisions\/112142"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111094"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=111094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}