{"id":111073,"date":"2024-12-19T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/le-triptyque-decarbonation-efficacite-energetique-sobriete-dans-les-scenarios-de-transition-energetique\/"},"modified":"2025-05-19T15:52:44","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T13:52:44","slug":"le-triptyque-decarbonation-efficacite-energetique-sobriete-dans-les-scenarios-de-transition-energetique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/le-triptyque-decarbonation-efficacite-energetique-sobriete-dans-les-scenarios-de-transition-energetique\/","title":{"rendered":"The decarbonation \/ energy efficiency \/ sobriety triptych in energy transition scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Energy scenario modelling has been a common exercise for several decades within companies, international organisations, national public bodies and the scientific community. These exercises have become much more popular in recent years, particularly since the 2015 Paris Agreement, which made the goal of carbon neutrality central to the political objectives of many countries. A number of studies, both in France and internationally, have sought to explain plausible and contrasting trajectories for achieving carbon neutrality in the energy system. The results of this work have led to a consensus around three essential levers for achieving carbon neutrality: the decarbonation of energy, energy efficiency and sobriety.<\/h6>\n\n\n
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D\u00e9finitions<\/h2>\n

Definitions<\/h2>\n

– The decarbonation of energy <\/strong>refers to the replacement of a fossil fuel energy source with an energy source that emits low levels of greenhouse gases (known as low-carbon energy). This applies to both energy production (e.g.<\/em> replacing a coal-fired power station with a wind farm) and demand-side technologies (e.g.<\/em> using an electric car instead of a heat-powered one, or a heat pump instead of a gas boiler).<\/p>\n

– Energy efficiency <\/strong>refers to all the techniques that make it possible to reduce the energy consumption required to satisfy a given need, without changing user behaviour. In more technical terms, it refers to the reduction in primary and final energy consumption required to satisfy a need expressed in terms of \u201cuseful\u201d energy. Energy efficiency refers to the performance of equipment and infrastructure: insulation in housing, energy consumption of a car, energy class of a household appliance etc. It is also linked to the sustainability, reuse and recycling of products. Designing objects with a longer lifespan makes it possible to limit renewal cycles, and therefore the energy consumption linked to their manufacture and end-of-life.<\/p>\n

– Sobriety <\/strong>refers to the reduction of energy consumption at the source of the need, by reducing its nature or intensity of a specific use. Sobriety refers to a change in usage behaviour, which may be linked to individual will, but may also be influenced by the orientations of public policies and collective infrastructures. As the reduction of a need can be motivated by economic and financial motives, the distinction between voluntary and involuntary sobriety has become commonplace in public debate in recent years. Examples of sobriety measures include reducing heating temperatures and vehicle weight, as well as practices linked to the sharing of uses, such as cohabitation and the use of public transport*.<\/p>\n

– The electrification of energy uses plays a key role in the energy transition<\/strong>. Electricity is expected to account for more than half of the world\u2019s final energy demand in 2050 in the International Energy Agency\u2019s carbon neutrality scenario<\/a>. It should be noted that electricity is at the frontier between energy decarbonisation (when electricity is produced using low-carbon sources) and energy efficiency. The fossil fuel energy system is characterised by significant losses in the form of heat. For example, the efficiency of an internal combustion engine in producing mechanical movement is between 25% and 40%, compared with nearly 75% for an electric vehicle. A gas boiler is relatively efficient at heating a building (85%), but a heat pump can produce three energy units of heat from one electrical unit, by drawing on the calories in the ambient air.<\/p>\n

*To be accurate, certain practices can contribute to both energy efficiency and sobriety. This is the case with rail transport, which not only reduces energy demand per user (mass transit), but is also a more energy-efficient means of transport (use of electricity, reduced friction on rail compared with road). Similarly, reducing the weight of vehicles is part of an approach that involves sizing products to the addressed needs (sobriety) and helps to reduce the vehicle\u2019s energy consumption (efficiency).<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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Depending on the scenarios (and the organisations proposing them), the emphasis on each of these levers of the energy transition may be more or less pronounced<\/strong>. Their implementation depends on political, economic and social choices. It requires trade-offs between objectives and interests that are sometimes irreconcilable. These transformations are also subject to varying degrees of inertia, and of different kinds. In theory, sobriety is the lever that can be activated most quickly and has the greatest mitigation potential, because an energy that is not produced has no environmental impact. But in practice, its adoption is subject to major inertia (social, political, behavioural, infrastructural, etc.). These inertias appear to be greater than those associated with the deployment of low-carbon technologies that are now mature, produced on a large scale and increasingly competitive with fossil fuel alternatives (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, heat pumps, etc.).<\/p>\n

The graph below, taken from the Sixth IPCC Assessment Report <\/a>, shows that most of the potential for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide by 2030 lies in energy substitution and energy efficiency measures.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Time for Decisions on the Energy Transition<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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25 February 2022<\/div>\n PAPON Pierre<\/a>\n
\n 14 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Article Revue\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Society<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n Potential of mitigation options for reducing GHG emissions by 2030 through various measures, and associated costs compared with current measures\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Source:<\/em> IPCC ((Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), summary of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report<\/a>, p. 27.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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By emphasising the complementary nature of these three levers of transition, the scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality describe trajectories that run counter to the polarisation that is increasingly visible in the public arena between advocates of degrowth, frugality or sobriety, and those rightly or wrongly described as \u201ctechno-solutionists\u201d.[1]<\/a><\/sup> Even in developed countries, where the trend is towards saturation of material and equipment needs, the ability of a single lever to bring about the energy transition should not be overestimated. In the most frugal scenario of the \u201cTransition(s) 2050\u201d exercise<\/a> by ADEME (the French Ecological Transition Agency), sobriety would contribute to no more than 30% of the reduction in energy consumption and 20% of the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in France compared with 2015. Energy efficiency is responsible for 20% of the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and decarbonation for 40%.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n EDF Sc\u00e9nario Net Zero 2050<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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17 June 2024<\/div>\n LE BEC Antoine<\/a>\n
\n 7 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Lu, vu, entendu\n <\/a>\n \u00c9conomie<\/a>\n Environnement<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n Effects of the various levers on changes in final energy consumption from 2015 to 2050 in the transport, building (residential and tertiary) and industry (including non-energy uses) sectors\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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N.B.:<\/em> in S1, sobriety makes it possible to reduce the energy consumption of the sectors studied by 30% between 2015 and 2050.
\nSource: Transition(s) 2050. Feuilleton sobri\u00e9t\u00e9<\/a>,<\/em> ADEME, 2024, p. 5.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n

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\n Effects of various levers on GHG emissions from 2015 to 2050 in the transport, building (residential and tertiary) and industry (including non-energy uses) sectors\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Source: Transition(s) 2050. Feuilleton sobri\u00e9t\u00e9<\/a>,<\/em> ADEME, 2024, p. 5.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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Another example, this time on a European scale: the CLEVER (Collaborative Low Energy Vision for the European Region) scenario, <\/a>in which the French association N\u00e9gaWatt took part, aims to measure the impact of a more far-reaching sobriety lever. By 2050, a 50% reduction in final energy demand compared with 2019 would be possible, according to the authors; 40% of this reduction would be attributable to sobriety measures in various sectors. This would make it easier to decarbonise the energy mix and reduce dependence on imports. Most of the reduction in final energy demand, however, would come from improvements in energy efficiency, particularly as a result of electrification.<\/p>\n

On a global scale, achieving carbon neutrality means meeting the still significant development needs of certain countries in the South, while adopting environmentally sustainable trajectories. For these countries, it is difficult to use sobriety as a lever to meet their energy needs in a sustainable way. Meeting people\u2019s basic needs (transport, housing, heating, etc.) requires increased access to energy for households, industry and the construction of infrastructure as part of urbanisation (involving energy-intensive processes due to the need for cement, steel, etc.).<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n La sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 vue par les Fran\u00e7ais<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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4 April 2024<\/div>\n D\u00c9SAUNAY C\u00e9cile<\/a>\n
\n 9 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Note de veille\n <\/a>\n Environnement<\/a>\n Soci\u00e9t\u00e9<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Moreover, behaviour in the south is already characterised by forms of sobriety linked to the sharing of uses (public transport) or the right sizing of technical solutions (two-wheeled transport), much more so than in the countries of the north. The levers are therefore more related to the production of low-carbon energies and the improvement of energy efficiency (for example, the car fleet is often much older and more polluting in these countries). The uncertainty for the future lies in knowing whether these countries will try to reproduce the historical development trajectories of the industrialised countries, which have exerted particularly strong pressure on the environment, or whether they will leapfrog, in particular by directly adopting low-carbon technologies, without going through a development phase that is highly intensive in fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

To limit global warming and achieve carbon neutrality, we will therefore need to rely on substitution, energy efficiency and sobriety, with varying degrees of emphasis on these levers depending on the socio-economic and political context. In concrete terms, for the energy sector, this means massively deploying low-carbon energy and heat sources, stopping the combustion of fossil fuels, massively electrifying industrial processes and uses, and moderating needs in developed countries. In some sectors, where decarbonisation technologies are not yet mature and their scaling up is uncertain by 2050, sobriety appears to be an essential lever. This is particularly true of air transport.<\/p>\n

However, achieving carbon neutrality will require transformations beyond the energy system alone (which accounted for almost 80% of global GHG emissions in 2023). As ADEME points out in its series Sobri\u00e9t\u00e9<\/em><\/a>, a broader conception of this concept in terms of \u201crethinking needs rather than simply saving energy allows for a broader approach […] it embraces multiple areas (energy sobriety, material sobriety, food sobriety, land sobriety, etc.) that share a common logic. Sometimes linked to energy, these other dimensions of sobriety are not limited to it\u201d.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n EDF imagine la sobri\u00e9t\u00e9 de demain<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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21 September 2023<\/div>\n GRZESIAK Laurie<\/a>\n
\n 3 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Actualit\u00e9 du futur\n <\/a>\n Environnement<\/a>\n Soci\u00e9t\u00e9<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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  1. \n

    Indeed, the concept of techno-solutionism tends to be applied by some environmental activists to low-carbon technologies that are technologically mature and increasingly economically competitive with their fossil fuel alternatives. This leads to confusion with the real technological gamble represented by the rapid, large-scale deployment of breakthrough technologies, currently at the demonstrator stage, such as the artificial capture of carbon dioxide, low-carbon hydrogen or electric aircraft. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Energy scenario modelling has been a common exercise for several decades within companies, international organisations, national public bodies and the scientific community. These exercises have become much more popular in recent years, particularly since the 2015 Paris Agreement, which made the goal of carbon neutrality central to the political objectives of many countries. A number … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":100397,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[195],"tags":[202,210,212],"keyword":[1058,1251,849,897,946,1886,267],"class_list":["post-111073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-signposts","tag-environnement-en","tag-science-et-technique-en","tag-societe-en","keyword-climat-en","keyword-transition-en","keyword-energie-en","keyword-modes-de-vie-en","keyword-scenarios-en","keyword-sobriete-en","keyword-developpement-durable-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111073"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111073\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":111085,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111073\/revisions\/111085"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100397"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111073"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=111073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}