{"id":111056,"date":"2025-02-05T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/des-ressources-minieres-de-la-transition-energetique\/"},"modified":"2025-05-19T15:31:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T13:31:09","slug":"des-ressources-minieres-de-la-transition-energetique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/des-ressources-minieres-de-la-transition-energetique\/","title":{"rendered":"Des ressources mini\u00e8res de la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique"},"content":{"rendered":"
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C\u00e9dric Philibert began his speech on the mining resources of the energy transition,[1]<\/a><\/sup> on 24 November 2024, by pointing out that this energy transition has already begun: while there is no substitution yet between renewable and fossil energies on a global scale, there is a marked slowdown in the growth in demand for fossil fuels. This will lead to an increase in demand for certain metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, lithium and rare earths.<\/h6>
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Philibert<\/span> C\u00e9dric, \u201cDes ressources mini\u00e8res de la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique [About the mining resources of the energy transition]\u201d, presentation at the National Days of the APBG (Association des professeurs de biologie et de g\u00e9ologie\u00a0\/ French Association of Biology and Geology Teachers), Paris, 24 November 2024, 1h22.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n \n See the lecture\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n \"\"\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n

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Current situation and outlook for demand<\/h2>\n

Many technologies and infrastructures need these metals, not least batteries and electricity grids. In its Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), the International Energy Agency (IEA) is attempting to project how demand for metals for electricity production and storage will develop between now and 2040. This growth would be massive: a factor of 42 for lithium, 25 for graphite, 21 for cobalt, 19 for nickel and 7 for rare earths. But when we compare this increase with the growth in demand in other sectors of the economy, the growth in overall demand appears to be much less.<\/p>\n

For example, demand for copper linked to the transition would increase by a factor of 5, but overall it would \u201conly\u201d double. Along with iron and gold, copper is one of the three metals most in demand in the world today (80% of metal concentrate extraction), and the increase in demand for copper uses unrelated to the energy sector is likely to remain stable. Other metals, such as lithium, should see their overall demand increase very sharply, but they currently account for a very small proportion of mining, since they have few uses apart from those required for transition technologies. Copper and, to a lesser extent, nickel appear to be the main drivers of transition-related mining demand (expressed in tonnage), as is iron, because of the need for steel, even if transition only increases overall demand for steel by 2% to 3%.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Peak oil: imminent disaster or an ever-postponed horizon?<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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22 January 2025<\/div>\n CRIQUI Patrick<\/a>\n
\n 6 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Signposts\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n World extraction of metal concentrates in 2021 (in tonnes)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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The extraction of iron, copper and gold accounts for around 80% of metal extraction. Copper and nickel are among the metals concerned by the energy transition.<\/p>\n

Source:<\/em> data from the Vienna University of Economics (WU), 2023; Raw Material Profile for Metal Ores;<\/em> slide 23 of C\u00e9dric Philibert\u2019s presentation<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n

Drawing on reference scientific studies,[2]<\/a><\/sup> C\u00e9dric Philibert makes a counter-intuitive observation: the impact of the energy transition on mining volumes will be downward. This observation also applies when all the rock crushed or moved to access resources is taken into account. Today, the consumption of eight billion tonnes of coal, mainly for power generation, requires 40 billion tonnes of rock to be moved. The expected reduction in coal extraction as a result of the transition will more than offset the increase in the extraction of new metals.<\/p>\n\n

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\n Tonnage of rock extracted (in gigatonnes per year)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Source:<\/em> data from Watari<\/span> Takuma et alii, op. cit;<\/em> slide 33 of C\u00e9dric Philibert\u2019s presentation<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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Will there be enough supply?<\/h2>\n

Will we have enough metals underground to meet this demand? C\u00e9dric Philibert answers in the affirmative: our subsoil has more than enough mineral resources to make the energy transition. He points out that fears of shortages are the result of misinterpretations, particularly with regard to the declining metal content of deposits. Taking copper as an example, he attributes the decline in its concentration in deposits to technical progress and the economic strategies of producers.<\/p>\n

Thanks to technical progress, it is now possible to extract copper from poorer deposits using the same amount of energy as in 1970, when the average grade fell from 1.7% to 0.65%. In addition, the prospect of economies of scale is encouraging mining operators to exploit poorer deposits that are more numerous and larger. In 1970, copper reserves were estimated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) at 280 million tonnes (Mt). Today, they are estimated at 1,000 Mt, although 650 Mt of copper have been mined in the meantime… The fall in the metal concentration of deposits should not therefore be interpreted as a sign of depletion; on the contrary, it explains the rise in reserves and resources (Lasky\u2019s relationship).<\/p>\n

While there is no problem with the physical availability of metal resources (stocks), C\u00e9dric Philibert raises two major issues relating to supply flows. Firstly, there is tension over the pace of scale-up in mining and refining, with a potential mismatch between supply and sharply rising demand as a result of the transition. The IEA\u2019s demand projections in a sustainable development scenario indicate that this imbalance is imminent. However, as demand for metals for the energy transition is not, for the moment, at the level needed to meet climate objectives, it can be said that this risk has not yet materialised. A second point of vigilance raised by C\u00e9dric Philibert is the geostrategic dependence on producer countries, particularly China for refining and purifying metals.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Les besoins de m\u00e9taux critiques li\u00e9s \u00e0 la transition vers la mobilit\u00e9 \u00e9lectrique<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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23 February 2024<\/div>\n LAMBLIN V\u00e9ronique<\/a>\n
\n 11 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Rep\u00e8res\n <\/a>\n Environnement<\/a>\n Science et technique<\/a>\n Soci\u00e9t\u00e9<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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How can we adapt?<\/h2>\n

Faced with these potential tensions on metal supply flows, there are several possible courses of action on both the supply and demand sides. Firstly, technological developments are <\/strong>contributing to metal substitution. Faced with the risk of shortages and the rising cost of certain metals, the battery industry is adapting its chemistry. We are already seeing a reduction in demand for cobalt (the social conditions under which it is mined are regularly criticised) as a result of the growing adoption of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which use neither nickel nor cobalt and now account for over 40% of the market.<\/p>\n

Another lever is metal recycling<\/strong>. According to C\u00e9dric Philibert, this is an important solution, but it will only be able to cover a small proportion of needs in the short term, particularly for electric vehicle batteries, given the rapid growth in the number of vehicles on the road. Relative to the commissioning of specialised plants, \u201crecycling is not behind but ahead\u201d of the availability of end-of-life batteries. Scrap batteries will be the main source of materials for recycling until 2030. Battery recycling is then set to become increasingly important in meeting demand for materials. Recycling rates of up to 50% for nickel and 35% for copper, and progressively higher rates for lithium and cobalt, are envisaged in the projections of some players. However, 100% recycling does not seem realistic because of the dispersive uses of some metals and losses during the recycling process. Supplies of primary materials will therefore remain necessary.<\/p>\n

C\u00e9dric Philibert did not mention the challenges of diversifying sources of supply (de-risking) and relocating mines in countries that have disinvested from these industries.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Foresight on Mineral Insecurity<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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26 December 2023<\/div>\n HACHE Emmanuel<\/a>\n
\n 22 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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What is the environmental impact of mining?<\/h2>\n

Mining accounts for between 1% and 2% of final energy demand worldwide (excluding fossil fuel extraction). Nearly half of this energy is for metals whose main uses are not related to the energy transition (iron, aluminium, gold, silver, etc.). A third is used to extract non-metallic minerals (sand, gravel, clay, etc.). The impact of metals such as cobalt, lithium, manganese and silicon is currently negligible.<\/p>\n

However, it is the metal processing and refining phases that are the main sources of emissions from the metallurgical industry. These are essentially the reduction (de-oxidation) of iron ore for steel production, and the production of aluminium by electrolysis (85% of emissions from metallurgical production over the entire life cycle, excluding the extraction and refining of fossil fuels).[3]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

The entire metallurgy value chain accounts for almost 10% of global CO2 <\/sub>emissions, but metallurgical mining itself accounts for around one percent, equivalent to the extraction, transport and refining of fossil fuels. The related CO2 <\/sub>emissions are and will be increasingly mitigated by the reduction in the use of fossil fuels in this industry (solar thermal energy for copper processing, electric mining trucks, etc.).<\/p>\n

With regard to the impact on biodiversity, C\u00e9dric Philibert points out that, according to the IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services), the environmental impact of mining is a \u201cminor factor\u201d in the erosion of biodiversity compared with other drivers such as climate change, the introduction of invasive species, the over-exploitation of forest and ocean resources, and pollution (particularly by pesticides). With regard to land use, and taking the example of photovoltaic panels, he points out that their footprint is minimal compared with that of other solutions such as biofuels. To travel the same distance, you need 100 to 300 times more surface area to grow biofuels for a combustion-powered car, than you would for an agrivoltaic system to produce electricity for an electric car. We might add that the surface area required for mining to produce these panels is estimated to be equivalent to that of Togo, spread over five continents.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n L\u2019exploitation mini\u00e8re des fonds marins sur la sellette<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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19 October 2023<\/div>\n PAPON Pierre<\/a>\n
\n 7 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Note de veille\n <\/a>\n \u00c9conomie<\/a>\n Environnement<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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This conference will also look at ways of integrating intermittent production sources such as solar and wind power into the power system. Flexibility of use, sobriety and maintaining reserves of dispatchable production sources (nuclear, fossil gas and, in the future, low-carbon gas) are ways of limiting the oversizing of wind and solar power stations, as well as battery storage. This has an impact on metal requirements. This point is one of the decisive elements of analysis in understanding the differences with the more alarmist work of other authors <\/strong>on the availability of mining resources for the energy transition. For example, Simon Michaux, in a recent report<\/a>, states that there will not be enough metals to produce even a single generation of technologies for a 100% renewable energy system (at current energy demand levels). In addition to failing to take account of the dynamic nature of mining reserves in the medium to long term, this author\u2019s conclusions appear to be highly sensitive to assumptions about battery storage requirements in a system based 100% on renewable energies (between 6 hours and 12 weeks).<\/p>\n

This conference provides an excellent overview of the issues associated with mining as part of the energy transition. Based on a rigorous analysis of the scientific literature, C\u00e9dric Philibert provides useful orders of magnitude for navigating the current controversies on the subject. They call into question the idea that the physical availability of metals would make the energy transition impossible. The environmental unsustainability of this transition is also strongly nuanced. However, the elements of analysis provided here apply on a global scale, which does not call into question the existence of specific local problems. The availability of energy and water resources, pollution and the impact of mining projects on biodiversity are causing tensions in certain regions, for example in Bolivia\u2019s salars where lithium is mined. Mining is the source of conflicts over the use of resources, and raises issues of acceptability to local communities, as shown by the controversies associated with the opening of a lithium mine in the Allier region of France.<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013<\/em><\/span>
\nN.B.: this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n L\u2019essor des batteries de r\u00e9seau<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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3 April 2023<\/div>\n LAMBLIN V\u00e9ronique<\/a>\n
\n 7 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Note de veille\n <\/a>\n Environnement<\/a>\n Science et technique<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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  1. \n

    The slides from his presentation can be downloaded from this LinkedIn page<\/a>. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    In particular Watari<\/span> Takuma et alii,<\/em> \u201cSustainable Energy Transitions Require Enhanced Resource Governance<\/a>\u201d, Journal of Cleaner Production,<\/em> vol. 312, August 2021. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    Nuss<\/span> Philip and Eckelman<\/span> Matthew J., \u201cLife Cycle Assessment of Metals: A Scientific Synthesis<\/a>\u201d, PLoS [Public Library of Science] One,<\/em> vol. 9, no. 7, July 2014, e101298. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    C\u00e9dric Philibert began his speech on the mining resources of the energy transition,[1] on 24 November 2024, by pointing out that this energy transition has already begun: while there is no substitution yet between renewable and fossil energies on a global scale, there is a marked slowdown in the growth in demand for fossil fuels. … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":101757,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[131],"tags":[133,202],"keyword":[1410,1251,849,143,1122,1123],"class_list":["post-111056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-read-seen-heard","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-environnement-en","keyword-batteries-en","keyword-transition-en","keyword-energie-en","keyword-ressources-minerales","keyword-industrie-miniere-en","keyword-matieres-premieres-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111056","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111056"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111056\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":111072,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111056\/revisions\/111072"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111056"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111056"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111056"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=111056"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}