{"id":100667,"date":"2024-11-25T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-25T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/world-energy-outlook-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-12-20T07:58:56","modified_gmt":"2024-12-20T06:58:56","slug":"world-energy-outlook-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/world-energy-outlook-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"World Energy Outlook 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In his foreword to the 2024 edition of the annual report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), its director, Fatih Birol, points out that the energy sector has now entered a turbulent period, with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, increasingly frequent climate disturbances and unstable markets making energy supplies more fragile. But he also notes the growth in the production of \u2018clean\u2019 energies (with low CO2<\/sub> emissions) , particularly electricity.<\/h6>
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IEA (International Energy Agency), World Energy Outlook 2024<\/em>, Paris: IEA, October 2024, 398 p.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n \n Voir ce rapport\n <\/a>\n <\/div>\n \"\"\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n

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Three themes run through the seven chapters of this report: energy security in a fractured geopolitical context; support for the growth of clean energies; political uncertainties (electoral in particular), technical uncertainties (speed of progress) and climatic ones (weather disruption). The first chapter presents three scenarios for world energy, to 2030 and 2050 \u2014 with annual growth of 2.5% in world gross domestic product (GDP).<\/p>\n

The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), based on recent developments in national policies and energy demand, assumes low growth in energy demand (0.5% per year, compared with 1.4% over the last decade) until 2050, and a tripling of clean energy consumption, but with 58% of energy coming from fossil fuels. The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) takes into account the ability of governments to meet their energy targets; the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario, the most ambitious, assumes an acceleration in energy decarbonisation by 2050, with global warming of 1.5\u00b0C by 2100. The IEA <\/s>foresees that energy demand will fall by 3% in the APS scenario in 2035, with the exception of industrial demand, and by 15% in the NZE scenario, before stagnating until 2050. The share of clean energy in demand would then be 90% in the NZE scenario, 75% in APS and 50% in STEPS. All these scenarios forecast a peak in fossil fuel consumption and CO2<\/sub> emissions before 2030.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n World Energy Outlook 2023<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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2 January 2024<\/div>\n PAPON Pierre<\/a>\n
\n 8 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Lu, vu, entendu\n <\/a>\n \u00c9conomie<\/a>\n Environnement<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\n Global total energy supply by source (in exajoules, left axis) and fossil fuel share (%, right axis) by scenario, 2000-2050\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Source:<\/em> IEA, op. cit.<\/em>, p. 100.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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Electricity will therefore be at the heart of the energy transition: between 2024 and 2050, the growth in electricity demand will be six times greater than that for all energy sources combined, and will be met by clean energy sources. According to the IEA, photovoltaic solar power and onshore and offshore wind power will together account for three quarters of clean energy; hydroelectricity, nuclear power, bioenergy, biomethane and biofuels, and hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water will contribute the remaining quarter. The global installed capacity of renewable energies, currently 4,250 gigawatts (GW), would rise to 10,000 GW in 2030 in the STEPS scenario and 11,500 GW in the NZE scenario. Nuclear power is set to increase after 2035, with new high-power reactors such as the European Pressurised Reactors (EPR). Nuclear power will continue to provide around 10% of the world\u2019s electricity production.<\/p>\n

All the scenarios forecast strong growth in energy investment. In 2024, investment in all sectors combined will amount to US$2,000 billion, and for every US$ invested in fossil fuels, around US$2 will be invested in clean energies (including nuclear). However, in 2035, for every US$ invested in fossil fuels US$3 will be invested in clean energy in STEPS, US$7 in APS and US$20 in NZE, for a total investment of US$5,000 billion. The IEA does not foresee major variations in the price of gas and oil, but a sharp fall in the price of oil in NZE after 2030, in line with the growth in sales of electric cars. These estimates are probably optimistic, and the IEA goes on to describe at length the risks to the energy system. Geopolitics remains the main one, with European and Asian countries being heavily dependent on oil and gas imports from areas where the risk of conflict is high, particularly in the Middle East: in 2023, 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) traffic transited through the Strait of Hormuz, and traffic through the Suez Canal is presently severely disrupted.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n Staying on Course for Energy\/Climate Transition<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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26 June 2023<\/div>\n CRIQUI Patrick<\/a>\n HACHE Emmanuel<\/a>\n
\n 22 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n Society<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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New investments targeting production are therefore essential, particularly for LNG and to secure supplies: LNG export capacity from the United States and Qatar is set to double by 2030. Supplies of critical metals (copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths), which are essential for clean energies, could be compromised by political tensions, given that 50% to 95% of the projected growth in these metals refining by 2035 will be provided by a limited number of countries, including China and Indonesia. The IEA forecasts very strong growth in electric vehicles sales (17 million in 2024, a quarter of which in China); in 2035, in the STEPS scenario, 30% of the vehicle fleet would be electric, but almost half in NZE. However, it wonders whether this growth will reach a \u201cspeed limit\u201d. It will only continue if the battery industry develops<\/s> and if the vehicles\u2019 selling price is acceptable. Biofuels should make inroads in aviation, and ammonia (produced from hydrogen) in maritime transport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, the IEA points out that strong meteorological instabilities can disrupt intermittent renewable energy sources, and that it is therefore essential to ensure the flexibility of the electricity mix by strengthening and interconnecting electricity grids, and by storing electricity using batteries and back-up systems (gas turbines and hydroelectricity). The report points out that 750 million of the world\u2019s inhabitants still have no access to electricity, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Finally, it raises the question of the growth in clean energy production (a threefold increase by 2030): will it be fast enough to achieve the objectives of the energy transition? A great deal <\/s>of technologies is certainly mature (solar and wind power, new high-power nuclear reactors, etc.), but not all of them, particularly those for hydrogen production.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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The final chapter of the report is devoted to regional situations. China, the world\u2019s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and peak emissions before 2030, and at being the market leader in solar photovoltaic and wind power technologies. Its electricity production is set to rise from 9,600 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2023 to around 19,000 TWh in 2050 (including 10,000 TWh from photovoltaic solar energy), but with coal still accounting for a quarter of its energy mix in 2050. The European Union has set itself several targets: to be carbon neutral by 2050, to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 (with a 42.5% renewable energy mix), and its energy demand by one-third by 2050 (two-thirds of which will be clean energy). Its electricity production would rise from 2,700 TWh in 2023 to 5,700 TWh in 2050. The United States, meanwhile, would achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, with a 20% reduction in its energy demand. By 2035, 60% of its electricity will be generated from renewable sources, rising to 80% by 2050.<\/p>\n

It is regrettable that the IEA is not very explicit about the technical obstacles that are likely to slow down the transition to low-carbon energy,[1]<\/a><\/sup> but its new report on world energy will be read with great interest, because it is published at a time when the implementation of national strategies has become a political emergency, and when Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House introduces a new variable into the world\u2019s energy equation, whose solution is likely to be a chaotic world energy system…<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n China: ecological civilisation and the geopolitics of green power<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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9 September 2024<\/div>\n HA\u00cbNTJENS Jean<\/a>\n
\n 8 min.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Forum\n <\/a>\n Environment<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n Society<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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N.B.:<\/em> this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n

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    The IEA has also published a report on renewable energies, which reviews all the techniques required for their development and is a useful complement to this report. See Renewables 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2030<\/em>,<\/a> Paris: IEA, October 2024. \u2191<\/a><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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