{"id":100604,"date":"2024-10-22T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/stockage-de-ressources-a-quoi-la-chine-se-prepare-t-elle\/"},"modified":"2025-01-06T16:18:27","modified_gmt":"2025-01-06T15:18:27","slug":"stockage-de-ressources-a-quoi-la-chine-se-prepare-t-elle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/stockage-de-ressources-a-quoi-la-chine-se-prepare-t-elle\/","title":{"rendered":"Resource storage: what is China preparing for?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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At a time when the Middle East is ablaze and all eyes are on Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, many media outlets are once again warning of China\u2019s major strategy of stockpiling resources, which it has been pursuing for several years now. While it is difficult to access official data, especially as the publication of statistics on stocks of several commodities was recently suspended by the government, the signals on the grain, oil, cobalt, iron and copper markets are accumulating.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n

According to Channel News Asia<\/em><\/a>, the Chinese government is reported to have asked its oil companies to add eight million tonnes of unrefined oil to national security reserves in 2024, while state-owned Sinograin announced earlier this summer<\/a> that it was increasing its purchases of wheat to fill its silos. According to the US Department of Agriculture<\/a>, China\u2019s wheat and maize reserves could account for 51% and 67% of global reserves respectively by the end of the season, 5 to 10 percentage points more than in 2018. Similarly, Reuters, Bloomberg and The Economist<\/em><\/a> report that China could buy up to 15,000 tonnes of cobalt this year, while the country had also procured 1.18 billion tonnes of iron ore by 2023 and held nearly 340,000 tonnes of copper by June 2024. More recently, Business Insider<\/em><\/a> warned that China\u2019s stockpile of short- and long-range missiles is growing rapidly, and will soon match that of the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n

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This is nothing new for China, which has a reputation for being a cautious country. Nor is it alone in building up strategic reserves \u2014 quite the contrary. However, this recent acceleration is worrying Washington, with US officials fearing that the Communist Party (CCP) is preparing for war. As we pointed out in our forward-looking analysis \u201cLa Chine peut-elle envahir Taiwan\u00a0<\/a>? [Can China invade Taiwan?]\u201d, the accumulation of key resources could be one of the warning signs of an invasion of Taiwan, with Beijing anticipating the risk that an invasion would lead to an automatic halt to trade across the Strait, as well as international sanctions suspending the flow of goods to China. What\u2019s more, the People\u2019s Liberation Army is stepping up its threatening exercises around Taiwan and the neighbouring islands. In May 2024, it surrounded<\/a> the archipelago without warning, surprising the United States with the speed of its deployment.<\/p>\n

More generally, most of the resources that China is stockpiling would be of direct or indirect use in the event of a conflict, with iron or oil, for example, being used for both civilian and military purposes. However, the stocks that have been built up far exceed the needs of a slowing Chinese economy, which implies that they could be redirected towards military production \u2014 or to support Russia in its war effort.<\/p>\n

Against a backdrop of falling commodity prices on international markets, China\u2019s strategy in recent months could also be partly explained by a time trade-off. Beijing is simply seeking to take advantage of the current economic cycle to acquire raw materials at low prices. Indeed, its economy remains dependent on oil imports \u2014 and the price of a barrel of oil has fallen below US$80 \u2014 while the prices of metals used in the energy transition industries (cobalt, lithium) are back to their lowest levels of the last decade.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n La Chine peut-elle envahir Taiwan, et \u00e0 quel prix pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale\u00a0?<\/a>\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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16 July 2024<\/div>\n S\u00c9GUR Mars<\/a>\n PAGLIA Morgan<\/a>\n
\n 12 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Analyse prospective\n <\/a>\n G\u00e9opolitique<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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While this hypothesis offers an alternative to the prospect of a military conflict in the making, it is also compatible with the opening of a new front in China\u2019s trade war with the United States. In recent years, Beijing has accelerated its strategy of securing supplies<\/a> of rare metals, both at home and abroad. This has resulted in a rapid increase in mining production, which has outstripped expectations of growth in demand. The resulting fall in prices has not made it easy to invest in new mines, undermining ambitions for strategic autonomy<\/a> and relocation to the United States or Europe.<\/p>\n

At this stage, we can only speculate. In a tense geopolitical and environmental environment, China could simply be taking precautions, anticipating future crises. But this same deteriorating climate could soon become the famous window of opportunity that Chinese officials are waiting for to \u201creclaim\u201d Taiwan. So we must continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and Ukraine. There is no doubt that the CCP is seeking the means to maintain its status as a superpower and is keeping a close eye on the games being played by Western players in these areas. Whether the United States maintains or increases its involvement, China will undoubtedly learn lessons that will determine its own strategy towards Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n

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\n Voir aussi<\/span>\n
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\n \n \"\"<\/a>\n <\/span>\n \n What Should the EU\u2019s Strategy Be for Economic Security?<\/a>\n \n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n <\/a>\n <\/span>\n
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26 June 2024<\/div>\n FABRY Elvire<\/a>\n
\n 20 p.\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n \n \n <\/use>\n<\/svg>\n\n Journal Article\n <\/a>\n Economics<\/a>\n Geopolitics<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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N.B.: <\/em>this article has been translated from French by DeepL, and revised by the author and Futuribles.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At a time when the Middle East is ablaze and all eyes are on Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, many media outlets are once again warning of China\u2019s major strategy of stockpiling resources, which it has been pursuing for several years now. While it is difficult to access official data, especially as the publication of … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":98611,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"both","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":301,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[140],"tags":[133,203],"keyword":[953,944,889,143,1029,1123,1187,906],"class_list":["post-100604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newswatch","tag-economie-et-emploi-en","tag-geopolitique-en","keyword-chine-en","keyword-politique-economique-en","keyword-politique-etrangere-en","keyword-ressources-minerales","keyword-ressources-naturelles-en","keyword-matieres-premieres-en","keyword-souverainete-en","keyword-guerre-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100604"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100604\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":101008,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100604\/revisions\/101008"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100604"},{"taxonomy":"keyword","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyword?post=100604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}