{"id":63580,"date":"2022-11-23T16:03:04","date_gmt":"2022-11-23T15:03:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/faq\/la-prospective-concerne-t-elle-uniquement-le-long-terme\/"},"modified":"2023-12-12T14:46:20","modified_gmt":"2023-12-12T13:46:20","slug":"la-prospective-concerne-t-elle-uniquement-le-long-terme","status":"publish","type":"faq","link":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/faq\/la-prospective-concerne-t-elle-uniquement-le-long-terme\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Foresight Concerned Solely with the Long Term?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class='post-container'><div class=\"intro-bloc-component blocs-spaces\">\n  <div class=\"gs-container\">\n    <div class=\"gs-row\">\n      <div class=\"@lg:gs-column-9\">\n        <div class=\"intro-bloc-component__content\">\n          \n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"intro-bloc-component__miniContent\">\n          <p>Foresight connects <strong>long-term<\/strong> <strong>thinking <\/strong>to<strong> action in the present<\/strong> or near future.<\/p>\n<p>To inform <strong>decision-making that has long-term consequences, <\/strong>there may be<strong> very long-run <\/strong>timelines for foresight exploration. Environmental issues, for example, require <strong>thinking on time-scales commensurate with<\/strong> the life-cycles of ecosystems.<\/p>\n<p>The relevant time-horizon depends on the <strong>pace at which the field in question evolves<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The experts of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) work on climate scenarios that run to 2100; the thinking of vehicle manufacturers on the future of transport has 10-15 year time-horizons; and many economic actors try to look forward two or three years to identify new markets.<\/p>\n<p>In crisis situations, when short-term uncertainties are important, the foresight approach is used to shape thinking about what may be the relatively short-term future. In the case of the Covid-19 health crisis, for example, Futuribles constructed 18-month scenarios that were regularly reassessed and re-worked. When war broke out in Ukraine, foresight analyses were developed that had a 3-year time horizon. These exercises shed light on decisions that have to be taken by actors in a situation of multiple, interconnected uncertainties.<\/p>\n<p>In no case does <strong>foresight thinking <\/strong>ever consist in imagining distant futures without thinking through the relevant developmental trajectories. It is about <strong>working on the articulation of timescales, conceiving the relations<\/strong> between highly inert phenomena and others that develop much more quickly.<\/p>\n\n        <\/div>\n              <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-63580","faq","type-faq","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/faq\/63580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/faq"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/faq"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.futuribles.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}