Territoires, réseaux

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)  

Document étude

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Trois solutions pour nourrir la population urbaine de demain

Dans un article daté du 5 juillet 2013, la revue ParisTech Review fournit des pistes de réflexion sur un sujet crucial : comment nourrira-t-on la population urbaine de demain ?

Analyse prospective

Territoires, réseaux

Les enjeux d’avenir du littoral français face aux risques

Suite aux sixièmes « Rencontres géographes et assureurs sur les phénomènes littoraux extrêmes en France aujourd’hui et demain », qui a eu lieu à Paris le 25 mars 2013, Futuribles propose ici une note d’analyse sur les enjeux d’avenir du littoral français face aux risques. Sept enjeux majeurs ressortis des débats sont présentés, permettant de mettre en avant des recommandations stratégiques.

Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Biodiversité et territoires 2030

La mission prospective du ministère de l’Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie a lancé en 2010 une démarche prospective « Biodiversité et territoires 2030 », dont ce document présente les principaux résultats. Ces travaux sont partis du constat que la dégradation de la biodiversité était désormais avérée à l’échelle nationale, et qu’elle pouvait avoir des impacts majeurs sur les écosystèmes et les territoires. Cette étude visait donc à anticiper les évolutions possibles de la biodiversité au cours ...

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Analyse prospective

Territoires, réseaux

Ville et services publics locaux : qu’attendent les habitants ?

Les élections municipales sont le rendez-vous politique majeur de 2014. La ville est à la fois l’objet d’annonces volontaristes (quant à ses performances pour les habitants) et de demandes grandissantes (des habitants eux-mêmes). En reposant sur trois études, on peut souligner combien la ville intelligente progresse concrètement, même si le concept demeure flou. Deuxième enseignement : les attentes à l’égard des services urbains (notamment gestion de l’énergie, de l’eau et des déchets) sont toujours plus importantes ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Territoires, réseaux

Cybercriminalité, quels risques pour les entreprises ?

Le 13 mars dernier, Vincent Maret, associé en charge des services de cybersécurité au sein de CGI Business Consulting, entreprise de conseil en management et en services informatiques, a présenté les différents risques auxquels sont exposées les entreprises en termes de cybercriminalité. Alors que les entreprises commencent à peine à intégrer la cybersécurité à leur stratégie, 30 % des ordinateurs dans le monde seraient affectés par un malware (logiciel malveillant) et de nombreuses entre­prises ont déjà connu des attaques de ...

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Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Concilier développement urbain et transition énergétique

ASPECT-2050 est un projet de recherche cofinancé par l’ANR. Son objectif est de proposer une méthodologie qui permette d’élaborer des plans climat-énergie territoriaux (PCET) selon une approche systémique, l’hypothèse centrale du projet étant qu’une meil­leure connaissance des interactions entre les politiques urbaines permettra de dégager des marges de manœuvre. Il asso­cie quatre sociétés d’ingénierie, trois laboratoires de recherche et trois collectivités territoriales. Il a démarré en novembre 2009 et s’est achevé en ...

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Actualité du futur

Territoires, réseaux

La ville de 2030 selon Eiffage

Les réflexions sur la ville durable se multiplient, et intéressent désormais aussi bien les acteurs privés que publics. Ainsi, Eiffage, le troisième groupe français du secteur du BTP (bâtiment et travaux publics) a présenté début avril sa vision de la ville durable à l’horizon 2030. Eiffage mène depuis 2007 des travaux de recherche et de prospective sur le développement urbain durable dans le cadre de son laboratoire « Phosphore », auquel participent des salariés du groupe et des experts de la ...

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Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

The European Union and Regional Separatism

The separatist temptations observed in a number of European countries are not without their impact on the European Union and its organization. As Jean-François Drevet shows here by way of three examples –Belgian Flanders, Scotland and Catalonia– EU membership may play a very variable role in the negotiation of a possible separation and, subsequently, of the modalities governing the relations to the Union of the two separate entities so formed. This column presents the situation of each of these separatist regions within the member states of which they are part (Belgium, United Kingdom and Spain). It then highlights the institutional difficulties that would be engendered by an actual separation, which would lead to an increase in the number of small states in the Union, involving a degree of representation in decision-making bodies that would be much greater than their demographic size.

Actualité du futur

Entreprises, travail - Territoires, réseaux

Quel avenir pour les zones commerciales ?

Les grands centres commerciaux installés en zone périurbaine ont longtemps symbolisé la société de consommation, parfois dans toute sa démesure. Mais quel avenir envisager pour ces zones, qui font face à la concurrence des autres lieux d’achat (qu’il s’agisse d’Internet ou des commerces de proximité [1]), aux politiques de lutte contre l’étalement urbain, et à la hausse probable du prix des carburants (qui va de pair avec une remise en cause du tout automobile) ? À ...

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Analyse prospective

Territoires, réseaux

Quel financement pour les transports en commun ?

Depuis 20 ans, les collectivités ont fait face à des dépenses croissantes pour les transports en commun, qui n’ont pas toujours été suivies d’une hausse équivalente des recettes. En effet, l’offre de métro, tramway et bus a augmenté en moyenne de 25 % en province, la fréquentation de 30 % mais, dans le même temps, les prix payés par les usagers ont baissé en moyenne de 9 % (en euros constants). Aujourd’hui, les usagers ne supportent en moyenne qu ...

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Revue

Territoires, réseaux

“Territories 2040”: An Invitation to Innovate in Spatial Planning Policies in France

This article completes the series begun in the columns of Futuribles in May 2012, conceived as a pendant to the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise launched by DATAR in France in 2009. In this article Stéphane Cordobes, Philippe Estèbe and Martin Vanier underscore how helpful this programme might prove to be for the renewal of spatial planning policies in France through its new approach, which combines the local, national and even European scales and gives priority to an analysis of territorial spaces by major functions; its non-normative stance; and its highlighting of strategic issues and options for public policy. The authors then delve into four of the major issues that will have to be confronted in order to build up a medium-to-long-term “spatial planning agenda” in France: the empowerment of all territories to meet the major social, economic and environmental challenges facing them; the development of strategies in step with globalized economies and societies; ecological transition; and a sensitivity to the needs inherent in a mobile society. These are so many challenges that offer opportunities, but also bring contradictions, which the local and national authorities with responsibility for spatial planning will have to face up to.

Artisans du futur

Entreprises, travail - Territoires, réseaux

“Terre de liens”: The Green Shoots of Organic Growing

For almost a year now, Futuribles journal has been opening its columns to organizations or individuals who are real actors in the economic and social field, initiators of constructive or innovative approaches conducing to the common good. Through the “Actors’ Words” rubric and, from this issue onwards the “Makers of the Future” column, these actors provide evidence of what can really be done to progress towards a future that is chosen rather than imposed. This month, Marthe de La Taille-Rivero presents the work of the “Terre de liens” association, which provides support for project developers wishing to acquire land in rural or commuter-belt areas and encourages the creation of activities that are ecologically responsible and promote social solidarity. After reminding us of the conditions in which the association emerged, she outlines the legal and financial instruments that have enabled this staunchly apolitical association to strengthen its base in France and extend its action for greater solidarity in the countryside, for new forms of territorial planning and for the spread of environmentally friendly agriculture.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Post-carbon Society: Pioneering Cities

In 2009 a programme was launched, steered jointly by the Foresight Mission of the French Ecology Ministry and by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), called “Rethinking Cities in a Post-carbon Society.” The programme’s work is still on-going towards a final report planned for 2013. The idea of a transition towards a “post-carbon” society embraces four main objectives: the reduction of greenhouse gases by 2050 to one quarter of their 1990 levels, virtual autonomy in respect of carbon-based energies (oil, gas and coal), an adequate capacity for adaptation to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of energy precariousness.

As part of the dossier Futuribles is devoting, this month, to this programme, Cyria Emelianoff and Elsa Mor show, in this article, how certain cities have gradually taken this subject on board, developing –often thanks to civil society initiatives and the emergence of networks of pioneering cities at the European level– highly ambitious strategies of transition towards less carbon energy consumption and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Here they outline two concrete cases of cities that are highly active in this field, Hanover and Bristol, showing their aims, the strategies deployed, the levers used and the results obtained. They particularly stress the importance played in these two transitions by the economic and environmental departments coming together on the question, and also by the development of “multi-partner” approaches. They are, nevertheless, critical of the difficulties in establishing proper “multi-scale climate governance” involving –above and beyond these pioneering cities– the regional, national, European and international levels, with a view to a more large-scale post-carbon transition.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Area Plans for “Factor 4”: Trajectories to 2020, 2030 and 2050 in the Tours Conurbation

In 2009 a programme –“Re-thinking Society in a Post-carbon Society”– steered jointly by the Foresight Department of the French Ecology Ministry and the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), was launched in France. It is still ongoing and aims to produce a final report in 2013. The idea of a transition towards a “post-carbon” society includes four main objectives: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to one quarter of what they were in 1990; near-autonomy with regard to carbon energies (petrol, gas, coal); an adequate capacity to adapt to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of “energy precariousness”.

As part of the dossier Futuribles is devoting to this programme this month, this article represents a highly informative case study of the implementation of an area strategy for transition to “factor 4” –that is to say, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to one quarter of what they were in 1990. Baratier, Beauvais and Métais show how, largely on the basis of its “Territorial Coherence Plan” (ScoT), the Tours conurbation has set about equipping itself, in a two-stage process (with target dates of 2020 and 2030), to achieve a post-carbon transition by 2050. They outline the key measures and objectives by sector and major energy consumption element, aiming to modify lifestyles in the conurbation so as to make Tours a “low carbon” city, a city of localities. Local public action, which is essential for successfully achieving such a transition, cannot, of course, be effective without convergent efforts at all levels. Lastly, above and beyond this interconnectedness of public policies, the authors stress a number of questions that are equally crucial (in terms of timescales, economic investment, democracy etc.) in the implementation of a “territorial factor 4”.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Local Actions in the Post-carbon Transition: A Simulation of the Macroeconomic Effects

In 2009 a programme –“Re-thinking Society in a Post-carbon Society”– steered jointly by the Foresight Department of the French Ecology Ministry and the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), was launched in France. It is still ongoing and aims to produce a final report in 2013. The idea of a transition towards a “post-carbon” society includes four main objectives: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to one quarter of what they were in 1990; near-autonomy with regard to carbon energies (petrol, gas, coal); an adequate capacity to adapt to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of “energy precariousness”.

As part of the dossier Futuribles is devoting to this programme this month, Cédric Allio, Henri Waisman and Jean-Charles Hourcade present here the study carried out by CIRED (International Research Center on Environment and Development) on the role played by local action in the post-carbon transition. The authors begin by reminding us of the importance of the transport sector in the increase in energy demand and in greenhouse gas emissions, and the need to bring about significant changes in individuals’ mobility behaviours if a post-carbon transition on a substantial scale is to be achieved. To do this, local initiatives could be crucial, given their impact on the spatial organization of territories, and could complement the measures put in place at higher levels (national, European or global). This is what clearly emerges from the model developed by CIRED to study the interactions between local and global levels in the post-carbon transition and to provide a macroeconomic frame for the scenarios envisaged in the “Post-carbon Cities” programme. The authors offer a comparison of two scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2050, but doing so by very different transition processes, and they show how, in these two contexts, local and global actions are interconnected and how that connection and a correct spacing of actions over time are crucial for carrying through a post-carbon transition.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

Towards Post-carbon Cities: Six Contrasting Scenarios

In recent decades, many studies and international gatherings at the highest level have raised awareness among the general public of the serious risks posed, on the one hand, by global warming and, on the other, by the possible exhaustion of fossil fuel resources. In this context, the idea of a transition towards a so-called “post-carbon” society has gradually been gaining ground. This has a number of central objectives: the reduction of greenhouse gases by 2050 to one quarter of their 1990 levels (in the countries of the North), near autonomy with regard to carbon-based energies (oil, gas and coal), an adequate capacity for adaptation to climate change and, lastly, greater attention to situations of energy precariousness.

This is why in 2009 a programme was launched, steered jointly by the Foresight Mission of the French Ecology Ministry and by the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), called “Rethinking Cities in a Post-carbon Society”. This programme’s work is still on-going towards a final report planned for 2013. This month, Futuribles is devoting a special dossier to it, coordinated by Jacques Theys, who launched this programme, and Éric Vidalenc who now coordinates it with Nathalie Etahiri.

Their article, which opens this dossier, outlines the approach and thinking at the heart of this study, which provides a deep analysis of the role cities play –or might play– in the promotion of major developments and changes to encourage a post-carbon society. In it, most importantly, the authors present the six transition scenarios that have been developed with the aim of proposing various possible routes to post-carbon cities in 2050 through highly concrete initiatives and measures in the fields of transport and housing policy, on decisions around energy, housing conditions, lifestyles etc. Lastly, they stress a major issue underlying such an ambition –namely, the way that short-, medium- and long-term goals hang together.

Actualité du futur

Territoires, réseaux

L’avenir des Pays de la Loire en BD

Dans le cadre d’un projet « Pays de la Loire 2040 », la région a demandé à des binômes de dessinateurs de bande dessinée (un dessinateur local et un extérieur à la région) d’illustrer leur vision des avenirs possibles de la région. La Web TV du Conseil régional nous offre la possibilité d’écouter deux binômes évoquer leur travail basé sur les travaux de prospective et le rapport du projet « Pays de la Loire 2040 ». Téhem et Jimmy Beaulieu ont ...

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Chapitre Territoires, réseaux

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.