Territoires, réseaux

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)  

Bibliography

Territoires, réseaux

Les Infrastructures à l’horizon 2030 : télécommunications, transports terrestres, eau et électricité

Les infrastructures sont au cœur du développement économique et social. Elles sous-tendent la quasi-totalité des activités économiques modernes, constituent en soi un important secteur économique et contribuent notablement à la progression du niveau de vie et de la qualité de vie. Toutefois, elles ont aussi des conséquences moins souhaitables : l'extension du réseau routier peut se traduire par un surcroît de circulation et de bruit, la mise en service de centrales électriques peut accroître sensiblement les émissions de gaz à ...

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Territoires, réseaux

« Prospective des territoires »

Ce numéro de Territoires 2030 rend compte de travaux, essentiellement français, de prospective territoriale menés à différentes échelles. Une première partie est consacrée à des textes généraux sur la prospective territoriale, dans son cadre français avec un texte revenant sur l?histoire de la DATAR (Délégation à l?aménagement du territoire et à l?action régionale) et à l?échelle européenne avec la contribution de Jérôme Vignon qui expose le défi que représente l?élargissement pour les démarches de prospective ...

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Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Die Zukunft des Städtetourismus Die Zukunft des Sommertourismus Die Zukunft des Wintertourismus Die Zukunft des Gesundheitstourismus

Le secteur du tourisme représente, selon les chiffres 2004, 6,4 % du produit intérieur brut de l'Autriche. Ces chiffres ne reflètent cependant pas la complexité et l'importance de ce domaine économique. L'Office national du tourisme autrichien a lancé une série d'ateliers de construction de scénarios pour explorer les développements possibles de quatre « segments » du marché touristique autrichien : le tourisme d'hiver, le tourisme d'été, le tourisme de santé et le tourisme des villes. Pour chaque ...

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Territoires, réseaux

Connaissance, solidarité, création. Le cercle d’or des territoires

Dans les années 1980, les territoires se sont préoccupés d'accroître leurs connaissances, leurs domaines de compétences, dont les ressources provenaient des résultats de la recherche : sciences de la vie, sciences de l'ingénieur, sciences cognitives voire sciences juridiques et sociales... L'avantage concurrentiel se bâtissait sur des spécialisations différentielles. Dans les années 1990, les territoires ont compris l'importance de l'organisation, de l'animation des acteurs du territoire, des effets réseaux... De nouvelles solidarités se manifestaient, non seulement ...

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Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

Urban Sprawl, the Ignored Challenge

Trésors culturels de l'Europe, les villes font du continent européen la première destination touristique au monde. L'Europe est profondément urbaine : aujourd'hui, plus de 75 % de la population européenne vit dans des zones urbaines, et ce taux devrait passer à 80 % d'ici 2020, voire 90 % dans sept pays. Or, l'Europe est aujourd'hui confrontée à un défi : l'étalement urbain. La ville tentaculaire prend des proportions inégalées, crée de façon anarchique des zones suburbaines sur des ...

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Revue

Territoires, réseaux

Regional Planning and Public Action

In 2001, Jean-Louis Guigou, at that time head of the French regional planning agency DATAR, launched a programme of foresight studies under the title "Territoires 2020". Ten public policy issues were identified and ten working groups were set up to look into them. One of them ("groupe 9") was charged with investigating the relationship between future regional planning and public action, under the chairmanship of Jean-Paul Bailly, who was then the chief executive of the RATP (the Parisian public transport authority) and who had already written a report for the Economic and Social Council on the role of future studies in public decision-making. In 2003, their work was written up but never published, with an "afterword" by Jean-Paul Bailly, of which this text is a long extract.
How can a long-term perspective be reintroduced into public action? This question lies at the heart of the study undertaken. Jean-Paul Bailly starts by observing that there are deficiencies as regards both decision-making and public debate; he proposes that a future studies approach should be adopted as the basis for a new form of governance and so play a key role as the catalyst of collective thinking. He stresses that the process of devolution as well as the possibilities offered by new forms of local administration mean that the regions offer an ideal level at which this new type of governance can be expressed. With some references to actual experiences, Jean-Paul Bailly explores how regional planning and public action can be linked so as to enable there to be co-ordinated development, shaping desirable options for the future together.

Revue

Territoires, réseaux

The Province of Liege between Now and 2020.An Exercise in Regional Planning to Choose Options for the Future

In 2001 the Development Commission set up by the Agency for Development of the Belgian province of Liege launched a two-year exercise in regional planning which brought together 50 local personalities, drawn from both public and private spheres, along with the collaboration of Futuribles. In 2005, this resulted in a very useful report on the possible scenarios for change in the province between now and 2020. Benoît Collet and Éric Winnen, who took part in the exercise, present its main features.
The situation was first assessed and then several factors with crucial importance for the future of the province were identified (its human capital, land-use planning system and infrastructure, industrial base, social dynamism, natural and cultural resources, governance). For each one, a range of variables was chosen to be used in drawing up microscenarios offering different prospects of change for each factor. These microscenarios were then combined to create four major scenarios for the future of the province of Liege between now and 2020.
After presenting these scenarios (ranging from the situation deteriorating to an interventionist policy of economic renewal), the authors provide details of the six main issues for the future of the province (in particular, mobilizing the population, turning the province's geo-strategic position to good account, rationalizing the land-use planning and mobility, etc.) and make a variety of recommendations for ways of achieving the "phoenix" scenario, synonymous with the revival of Liege.
Unfortunately, now that several months have passed since the results of the "Liege 2020" study were made public, it is all too clear that the decision-makers have not given the study the welcome that was hoped and that the area needs. Their reluctance could well favour the scenario of steady decline, as so often happens.

Revue

Territoires, réseaux

The Latest Ways of Reducing Traffic Congestion

Time is money, as the saying goes, and time wasted is therefore costly both to the individual and also to the community when it comes to clogged roads. What should then be done to reduce the waste of time and the costs incurred by traffic congestion?
In this article André de Palma, Serge Pahaut and Émile Quinet, all three experts on transport issues, share with us the latest available research on traffic congestion. They describe the costs of congestion for society and then discuss the methods adopted so far and the very limited measures used to influence the behaviour of motorists.
They go on to stress the important role that the new information and communication technologies can play in dealing with congestion. They describe the first attempts to apply these technologies to traffic flow problems (telecharging, zone-use charging, etc.), in France and elsewhere (e.g. London and California), and they highlight the new opportunities to provide incentives for motorists to organize their road use in a more rational manner.
They also discuss the best ways of improving the situation in the area around Paris (their preference is for urban toll roads) and examine the obstacles to implementing the various methods of reducing congestion. Lastly, they offer some prospects for possible ways of coping with traffic problems in future, though this naturally depends on vehicles being equipped with advanced technologies.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

The Automobile of Tomorrow. Stakes and Prospects

For more than half a century the motor car has been one of the success stories of French manufacturing industry. Even if it is no longer as true as it once was that "if Renault sneezes, France catches cold", now that services account for an ever larger share of the economy and the car industry is increasingly automated (today it accounts for only 1.3% of French jobs), the sector retains a symbolic importance in the public mind.
Nevertheless, as Pierre Bonnaure and Véronique Lamblin argue here, the car is changing rapidly, both outside and inside (with greater use of electronics). This is in response to the expectations of consumers, rising safety standards, environmental concerns, etc., and car manufacturers are therefore being forced to be more and more innovative. Added to this are the prospect of fossil fuel reserves running out, which raises the question of how vehicles should be powered in future, and the emergence on world markets quite soon of major vehicle manufacturers in developing countries such as China and India.
Against this background, competition is likely to be fierce and investment in research, especially, must no longer be put off, in France and more generally in the rest of Europe.

Bibliography

Territoires, réseaux

L’attractivité de l’Île-de-France à l’horizon 2025

L'Île-de-France, soumise à une concurrence de plus en plus vive des métropoles européennes et des pays à bas salaires, risque-t-elle de voir compromise, à terme, sa place de grande région économique mondiale ? Et, compte tenu de la montée du chômage de la précarité, d'être de moins en moins une région accueillante où il ferait bon vivre pour tous ? Son attractivité serait-elle aujourd'hui moindre, tant pour les investisseurs étrangers que pour les Franciliens ? Le rapport de la section ...

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Chapitre Territoires, réseaux

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.