Territoires, réseaux

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)  

Bibliography

Territoires, réseaux

Étude de prospective sur l’avenir du centre d’apprentissage de l’île d’Yeu

Après avoir rappelé les orientations du développement économique local et de l'évolution de la population active, l’étude questionnera l'objectif souvent affiché de "garder" un niveau de 5 000 personnes sur l'île au regard du potentiel généré par l’extension possible de l’urbanisation et de la « problématique de logement à l’année ». Quelle sera la composition des actifs de demain ? L’étude recensera les données relatives à l'économie, la démographie, le logement, la formation et ...

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Entreprises, travail - Territoires, réseaux

Économie des services et développement des territoires

Dans le cadre du programme de prospective de la DATAR (alors DIACT) « Territoires 2030 », en 2007, un groupe de travail s?est attaché à décrire la nature des services et leurs spécificités en matière d?ancrage ou de volatilité dans les territoires français. La première partie de l?ouvrage analyse le rôle de l?économie de service mesurée en termes d?emplois, d?échanges et de spécialisation des territoires français. Compte tenu de l?inadaptation de la typologie usuelle pour ...

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Territoires, réseaux

CAP 2030 : les avenirs économiques de la région Champagne-Ardenne

Les entrepreneurs du monde économique de Champagne ?Ardenne se sont engagés d?août 2008 à janvier 2010 dans une réflexion prospective interprofessionnelle sur les avenirs économiques de la région. Dans cet exercice, dont l?objectif était de se doter d?une vision partagée d?un avenir économique souhaitable pour la région, quatre scénarios de contexte extérieur à la région et quatre scénarios régionaux ont été élaborés sur la base de 35 variables d?influence sur l?économie régionale. Dans la ...

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Territoires, réseaux

les villes du futur : rêves ou cauchemars ?

À quoi ressembleront les villes du futur, dans un monde de plus en plus urbanisé et toujours plus cosmopolite ? La Délégation sénatoriale à la prospective du Sénat, créée en 2009, a choisi de consacrer son deuxième atelier de réflexion à cette question. Une première table ronde était consacrée à la « réponse des prospectivistes » à la problématique. Julien Damon, professeur associé à l’institut des sciences politiques de Paris, a tout d’abord rappelé que, depuis 2008, l’humanité est devenue ...

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Géopolitique - Territoires, réseaux

India’s Urban Awakening : Building Inclusive Cities, Sustaining Economic Growth

La population urbaine indienne ne cesse de croître depuis 10 ans : elle est passée de 290 millions de personnes en 2001 à 340 millions en 2008. D’après les auteurs de cette étude, elle pourrait représenter 590 millions de personnes à l’horizon 2030. À cette date, 40 % des Indiens seraient urbains, contre 30 % aujourd’hui. Ce taux dépasserait 50 % dans cinq États ; six villes compteraient plus de 10 millions d’habitants, 13 villes plus de quatre millions, et 68 ...

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Rapport étude

Territoires, réseaux

La Prospective des territoires urbains sensibles : la construction de scénarios, et quelques autres méthodes

Ce guide a vocation à présenter rapidement ce qu’est la prospective et ce à quoi elle peut être utile, ainsi qu’à présenter les méthodes qui peuvent être employées pour développer des démarches de prospective appliquées aux territoires de la politique de la ville. La méthode des scénarios, souvent employée sur les territoires, occupe une place prépondérante. Depuis 2007, une douzaine d’études de prospective ont été conduites sur des territoires de la politique de la ville. Ces démarches ...

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Territoires, réseaux

Étalement urbain et mobilité

Faire comprendre la dynamique spatiale de la ville qui effrange la forme urbaine, la fragmente et la disperse (désignée sous le nom d?étalement urbain), en comprendre les liens avec ce que l?on appelle aujourd?hui la mobilité (faite de chaînes de déplacements et de combinaisons d?activités diversifiées), tel est le défi auquel s?est attelé Marc Wiel, urbaniste, dans cet ouvrage. Il y propose une vision en système de la dynamique combinée des territoires et des mobilités ...

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Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Économie, emploi - Éducation - Entreprises, travail - Géopolitique - Institutions - Population - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Introduction et sommaire rapport Vigie 2010

Grâce au soutien des membres de l’association, le système de veille prospective de l’association Futuribles International, le « Système Vigie », assure en continu l’identification et l’analyse des tendances susceptibles d’avoir un impact important sur le contexte général dans lequel évoluent les organisations. En 2009, il est apparu nécessaire de restructurer le dispositif de veille que nous avions initialement mis en place et de mieux l’articuler avec les autres productions intellectuelles de Futuribles : essentiellement les articles ...

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Chapitre de rapport annuel vigie

Territoires, réseaux

Chapitre 15 du rapport Vigie 2010 : Dynamique des territoires

PARTIE 1 : DYNAMIQUE DES TERRITOIRES EN EUROPE ET DANS LE MONDE Tendance 1 : Une gouvernance urbaine complexifiée Tendance 2 : Le développement durable au coeur des stratégies territoriales Incertitude 1 : Émergence d’un agenda territorial européenà l’horizon 2015 ? Incertitude 2 : Un nouveau mode de financement des infrastructures de l’UE ? Incertitude 3 : La gestion territoriale affectée par le changement climatique ? PARTIE 2 : DYNAMIQUE DES TERRITOIRES EN FRANCE Tendance 1 : Des territoires plus attractifs que d’autres Tendance 2 : Augmentation des ...

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Forum

Territoires, réseaux

Paris-Le Havre by Government Fiat? The Greater Paris Project between Fantasy and Reality

Futuribles devoted its summer issue (no. 354, July-August 2009) to the future of European cities in the current context of combating global warming and promoting sustainable development. As an extension of this debate, we are publishing a “forum” this month devoted more specifically to the future of Paris, as it is emerging following the series of consultations on the “Greater Paris” question and French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s stated preference for a sustainable capital extending as far as the port of Le Havre.
Jean-Paul Lacaze, a specialist in urban development, offers a highly critical analysis of this project here. Apart from certain “incongruous” aspects of the project, he deplores the failure to take account of the specific economic and social features of the Île-de-France region and the potential worsening of inequalities between the prosperous western part of that region and the less affluent eastern area. He stresses the serious housing problem in the region, which would not be solved by this new project. And though he agrees on the need to set the Parisian metropolis on a sustainable course, he doesn’t feel the necessary investment has been committed. In his view, it will take a large-scale experiment continuing for at least a decade if the hope is to bring Paris, along with many other French cities, into the “post-Kyoto” era.

Forum

Territoires, réseaux

Greater Paris and the Shadow of Haussmann. On Jean-Paul Lacaze’s Article

Jean Haëntjens, who co-ordinated the Futuribles special issue “European Cities, Cities of the Future?” (no. 354, July-August 2009), responds, as part of this “forum”, to Jean-Paul Lacaze’s article on Greater Paris in this November issue. He is distinctly less critical than Jean-Paul Lacaze of the Greater Paris project and the consultation process around it, and he stresses the extent to which the shadow of Baron Haussmann continues to hover over current debates. In Jean Haëntjens’ view, it is essential that French cities, beginning with the capital, draw a line under the state urbanism embodied in the Napoleon III-Haussmann and De Gaulle-Delouvrier pairings, if they want to come into the 21st century. This represents an enormous undertaking and it is difficult to judge how long it will take or what the chances of success will be in what is still, to say the least, a centralized country…

Tribune européenne

Territoires, réseaux

What Destinations for the Southern High-Speed Rail Link?

According to European Commission forecasts, traffic on the various existing transport networks between the member states of the Union may double by the year 2020. Hence substantial investment in transport infrastructure is crucially necessary to put in place a network that can cope with this growth in traffic. This is why the Commission has allotted a budget of almost 500 billion euros for the period 2007-2020, more than half of it to be focused on priority projects or routes.
The extension of the high-speed rail network, particularly in the South-West of Europe, has a key role here. But such a project also depends largely on the backing of national governments – in this case, those of France, Spain and Portugal. Where are we at with the high-speed rail network for South-West Europe? What are the aims and prospects for the next few years? Jean-François Drevet here casts a very precise light on what might become of the rail network linking France, Spain and Portugal in less than 10 years’ time.

Revue

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

The Great European Cities in the Post-Crisis Period

How are we to rethink the European city today and direct it on to a path of more sustainable development? David Mangin, the author of a standard reference work on the mechanisms that led to the emergence of "unsustainable" cities (La Ville franchisée. Paris: Éditions de la Villette, 2004) offers here various lines of thinking for the benefit of decision-makers in the public realm - and particularly in the field of town planning.
After reminding us of the mechanisms that led to the totally car-dominated "franchized city", of which the great North American cities are particularly emblematic, he identifies the lines of action to be taken to reverse this trend (in terms of infrastructures, choice of housing, organization of space). He does this on at least two levels: the basic ville passante (sometimes translated as "busy city", the concept implies open flows between areas and a predominance of walking and cycling) and the metropolis. The key thing today is to limit urban sprawl by optimizing the underused spaces in cities and their inner suburbs, and by rendering inter-urban relations between the suburbs of the great metropolises more fluid, while taking into account the particularities of each individual area.

Tribune européenne

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

EU Action on Urban Matters

Should the European Union have an urban policy? This is a tricky question, given the highly local issues that pertain in many European cities and the principle of subsidiarity dominating European policy, which states that the lead on policy must be devolved to the lowest decision-making level. The European Union has, in fact, no urban policy properly so-called, but, as Jean-François Drevet reminds us here, it has been intervening in urban matters for some 20 years.
After a number of pilot schemes, in 1994 the European Commission launched a specific Action Programme called "Urban", which was relaunched for the period 2000-2006 and is outlined in this column. Since 2007, the Commission has intervened in urban matters mainly through regional policy and as part of efforts to improve the competitiveness of European territories. In future, it will probably be the (territorial, social and economic) cohesion policy that will be called upon to play a specific role in urban questions.

Revue

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

European Cities in "Co-opetition"

In this issue, devoted in large measure to European cities, Futuribles opens its columns to Gérard Collomb, the mayor of Lyon. Lyon is the third-largest city in France in terms of population, but above all it is a city with strong European connections through its partnerships with other great metropolises.
Interviewed by Jean Haëntjens, Gérard Collomb relates how essential these collaborative initiatives between European cities are today, so that, on the one hand, cities do not merely submit to globalization, but actively participate in it through cooperation in key sectors (by way of competitiveness hubs, for example) and, on the other, a healthy level of emulation is maintained and local authorities are encouraged to make progress in the economic, scientific, environmental and other fields. In this respect, the "co-opetition" (a combination of the words co-operation and competition) established between European cities no doubt plays a crucial role, which this article enables us to grasp more clearly. It also encourages the big metropolises to devise new, more "sustainable" modes of urban development. Here, the European Union ought perhaps to operate at city rather than regional level in a number of strategic fields, such as housing and mobility.

Revue

Institutions - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

The "Cloud City". Twenty-first Century Urban Style

Jean Viard is a specialist in time-usage and the way it has evolved historically and also an expert on the regions of France and the mobility of individuals across those regions. In this issue of Futuribles, devoted, as it is, in very large measure to European cities, he makes a detailed analysis of the social developments that have been ongoing for several decades and their consequences for the relationship to space in general and to cities in particular.
In his view, 21st-century urban style will be that of the "cloud city". To put it another way, the urban style historically based on place is now no longer the monopoly of cities; it has gradually been "virtualized", becoming a "multi-site" phenomenon. Moreover, the increase in healthy-life expectancy in a context of shorter working hours has produced a veritable time revolution, and the impact of that revolution on social relations and the use of time (free time, working time, time for romance etc.) also has effects on urban organization. In this way, Jean Viard shows that, despite its no longer being the principal activity in French people's time, work is still too often the key element in the way housing, urban districts and entire cities are structured, whereas social demand is increasingly oriented towards leisure and focuses on places where people can meet, walk etc. He also shows the degree to which the culture of mobility influences the organization of urban space today, enabling this to extend far beyond the historic boundaries of towns and cities. And in this mobile society, new polarities of development and attractiveness are emerging, alongside new dangers of (spatial and generational) segregation. These are the major future challenges cities are going to have to face up to: they will have take on board the fact that employment is no longer their prime determinant; they will need to grow, to smarten themselves up and to advertise their attractiveness - to become "sustainable" so as to win the loyalty of today's residents and attract people in the future, whether it be tourists, entrepreneurs or ordinary citizens.

Revue

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Territoires, réseaux

The Strategies and Future of Europe's Cities

In the view of Jean Haëntjens, who has coordinated this issue's special dossier on European cities for Futuribles, it is accepted today that the current economic crisis calls for another, more eco-responsible model of development and that the organization of cities could have an important part to play in the definition of that model. In these circumstances, might the particular situation of the European cities constitute an asset for the Old Continent?
This article by Jean Haëntjens, the opening contribution to this special dossier, takes a general look at the current strategies and possible developments of European cities in the context of sustainable development. After reminding us of the influences and broad lines of development that have characterized European cities historically, Jean Haëntjens outlines the main strategies of the European cities, from the "fragmented city" of the 1960s and 70s, via the 1980s/90s period in which certain urban functions were improved (new transport networks, design changes, cultural influence), to contemporary urban policies characterized by eco-development. He then analyses the differences and convergences between these strategies, before arriving at a - relatively positive - assessment of the international positioning of Europe's cities. This being said, though the first transformations we have seen (for example in some Nordic cities) are rather encouraging, there is still much to do, particularly in terms of improving the congeniality of these cities, and attracting new workers to them and persuading them to stay. European cities have many advantages that help them make the 21st century transition to "sustainable cities", yet they still have further to go with the transformations they have set in train. They still have "to reinvent themselves".

Revue

Territoires, réseaux

City Rankings

With the economy at a low ebb, competition between towns and cities to attract companies, talent and tourists or to win the allegiance of their residents might well become tougher. Competition between cities isn't a new phenomenon. It has existed as long as trade has existed, but in the current context of accelerated globalization it has acquired a new face and cities are using all their ingenuity to showcase their particular strengths.
Among the means at their disposal, all kinds of ranking and benchmarking - to use the fashionable term - are increasingly being called on. Whether based on objective criteria or more subjective survey material, they enable cities to compare themselves with others and adapt their strategies to suit their particular strengths and weaknesses.
Émile Hooge has studied most of the benchmarking indices on the big metropolises currently in existence. After reminding us of the basis of cities' strategies in the international competition between them, he presents these indices here (European Cities of the Future, European Competitiveness Index, Quality of Living Index, European Cities Monitor, City Brands Index etc.), indicating their chief characteristics, together with the positive grounds for using them and, also, their limitations. He also shows that new areas of competition are emerging, with the two main fields currently covered by cities in their public relations (material values and image values) being potentially joined by the two complementary fields of functional values and identity values.

Revue

Économie, emploi - Territoires, réseaux

Winners and Losers: Strengths and Weaknesses of the European Metropolitan Regions

Which are the most attractive European cities, where are they located and what are the causes or factors of their attractiveness? Christian Vandermotten, who has worked for many years on these questions at the IGEAT (Institut de gestion de l'environnement et d'aménagement du territoire), offers various elements of a response based on the international comparison studies carried out by that institution.
Apart from comparisons of GDP per inhabitant, he bases himself on two indices: the functional index and the internationalization index, which make it possible to appreciate the concrete assets possessed by a city or urban area (connectivity, the presence of company headquarters, knowledge economy, tourism, heritage etc.). This makes it possible to draw up a classification of the most internationalized and most functional cities, in which some large metropolitan districts (London, Paris, Rome, Madrid, Amsterdam, Brussels, Munich etc.) come out top, together with a number of Central or Eastern European capitals (Prague, Budapest, Warsaw etc.), though two of the capitals that "missed out" on the benefits of the opening-up to Eastern Europe (Berlin and Vienna) are not among their number and a certain number of other losers are also absent from the list, these being mainly cities and conurbations with longstanding industrial traditions (Manchester, Liverpool, Lille, the Ruhr etc.). The author does, however, stress that the newfound prosperity of the great European metropolises should not lead us to forget the social challenges that still have to be faced (integration of immigrant populations, governance, mobility etc.). And he concludes with remarks on the various elements that make for potential urban success in the economic, social, heritage, environmental and other fields.

Revue

Institutions - Territoires, réseaux

Three Key Notions for Reinventing the European City

The world-famous architect Bernard Reichen here outlines his future vision for European cities within the present context of "sustainable development". After reviewing the wrong turn taken by urbanism with the Athens Charter of 1942, he shows that we are ready today in Europe to reinvent the city, particularly where its practices are concerned. This reinvention, argues Bernard Reichen, will have three themes to it: strengthening the element of connectivity, promoting an "urban nature" and making use of recycling (the "sustainable city"). The twofold - ecological and economic - crisis we are currently living through thus presents us with an opportunity to rethink urban development. It is up to Europe's cities to grasp this opportunity to reinvent a new art of city living.

Futuribles

Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Bibliographie prospective n°70

La Bibliographie prospective du mois d'avril 2009 consacre son Focus à un exercice de prospective territoriale de la Région Nord-Pas-de-Calais intitulé "Vieillissement démographique et territoires en Nord-Pas-de-Calais à l'horizon 2025" qui s'attache à identifier les enjeux liés au vieillissement dans la région et donne lieu à la construction de quatre scénarios, dont la portée dépasse la seule région Nord-Pas-de-Calais. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes rendus de livres, études et rapports ...

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CR intervention d'expert

Territoires, réseaux

Prospective des missions du Conseil général de l’Hérault à l’horizon 2015

Sylvain Saltiel, directeur des études territoriales à la Direction des études territoriales de l’Hérault, a présenté la démarche et les résultats de l’exercice prospectif mené par la Direction des études territoriales afin d’actualiser les diagnostics du territoires et de définir des scénarios d’évolution des missions du Conseil général.

Bibliography

Population - Territoires, réseaux

« La « bidonvillisation » comme perspective urbaine mondiale ? »

La « bidonvillisation » comme perspective urbaine mondiale ? C'est avec cette question volontairement provocatrice que Julien Damon, sociologue, nous invite à explorer le phénomène de bidonvillisation des villes à l'échelle planétaire. S'il est remarquable de noter que, depuis 2008, plus d'un homme sur deux est urbain, il l'est tout autant de rappeler qu'un tiers d'entre eux vit dans des bidonvilles. Ce phénomène massif n'est pas nouveau. C'est ce que l'auteur s'attache ...

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Chapitre Territoires, réseaux

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.