Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Dans le cadre d’un projet « Pays de la Loire 2040 », la région a demandé à des binômes de dessinateurs de bande dessinée (un dessinateur local et un extérieur à la région) d’illustrer leur vision des avenirs possibles de la région. La Web TV du Conseil régional nous offre la possibilité d’écouter deux binômes évoquer leur travail basé sur les travaux de prospective et le rapport du projet « Pays de la Loire 2040 ». Téhem et Jimmy Beaulieu ont ...
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According to figures from the Abbé-Pierre Foundation, in 2012 almost nine million people in France were affected by the housing crisis (either without a personal place of abode, living in very difficult or overcrowded housing conditions, unable to pay their monthly rent or having, involuntarily, to live in the homes of others). If to these housing difficulties we add the need on the part of local authorities, particularly urban ones, to take account of the new approach to energy and the environment (the fashionable concept of the “sustainable city”) in a decade-long context of very high land and property prices (as compared with household incomes), then French local communities face a stiff challenge. However, Marc Wiel argues in this article that it is not insurmountable, provided that local institutions and those in charge of sectoral policies relating to housing in the broader sense (urban policies, transport policies, housing aid etc.) cooperate closely, with a view to controlling “property rents”.
Marc Wiel begins by showing how the process of urban development is not under control in France –largely because of the way that “property rents” are formed. He prefers this latter term to that of “increase in housing costs” on the grounds that it isn’t the costs of construction or demography or shortage that explain this price-rise. He then stresses the disadvantages in the fields of housing, transport and spatial planning, of not controlling property rents, together with the collective costs that ensue. Wiel proposes a new conceptual framework for grasping the (crucial) interactions between transport and urbanism and enabling the public authorities to correct the imperfections of the market and to influence the choice of location of the various actors (households, businesses, services etc.). Lastly, he formulates a variety of recommendations aimed at regulating the processes of urban development and spatial planning better and more fairly, through transport, movement and housing policies and by way of more collaborative work on the part of the actors concerned and a reform of the institutions in which they operate.
Within the framework of the series begun in May 2012, aimed at echoing the “Territories 2040” exercise launched in France by the DATAR in 2009, Nadine Cattan presents the lessons learned by the working group she chaired on “Entry Gateways to France and Territorial Flow Systems.” She begins by detailing the analytical framework within which the group worked: the definition of the different types of flows (linked to mobility and leisure, to the information and knowledge economy, to the economy and finance and, lastly, to energy needs and constraints) and the various categories of gateways related to those flows (“place-gateways” and “corridor-gateways”, “territory-gateways” and “network-gateways”, and, lastly, “individuals-gateways” and “objects-gateways”).
Nadine Cattan then outlines the four major problematics at the heart of the foresight approach so far as these flow systems are concerned –territorialization, responsibility (in particular, the ability to regulate and control the territorial system), attractivity and vulnerability– together with the challenges associated with these. On this basis, 10 processes were identified that can explain the developmental dynamics of the system up to the year 2040. Using various combinations of these, four possible scenarios were identified: a “polarized” scenario characterized by a high degree of mobility at the global level, metropolization and high transport-related energy consumption; a “diluted” scenario involving a reduced quantity of journeys and a dematerialization of exchanges, but high levels of energy consumption within living spaces; an “archipelized” scenario, in which global space is structured around a number of large-scale autonomous nodes, long-haul mobility is limited and energy consumption low, but there are great inequalities; and, lastly, a “fluidified” scenario of a hypermobile, networked society, in which individual mobility increases enormously, but new territorial regulatory frameworks are required.
More than nine million counterfeit products were seized by the French customs in 2011, among which were a million and a half articles seized from carriers of express goods –in other words, articles from individual Internet orders. This latter figure attests to an expanding phenomenon which is as yet difficult to measure precisely, but could turn out to have serious consequences both for consumers and for certain sectors of the economy: namely, the growing distribution of counterfeit products –particularly, hazardous products– by way of the Internet.
Franck Guarnieri and Éric Przyswa present the main issues here, first recalling the particular context that the Internet represents for counterfeiters, together with the reality of the phenomenon and the inherent dangers. They also stress the difficulty of fighting counterfeit goods on the Internet at the international level, because debate and action are too targeted on the legal aspects (intellectual property in particular) or deal with cybercriminality without really confronting counterfeiting, and are based on a loose conglomeration of institutions that co-operate very little with one another. In this context, and given the prospects they foresee for the “counterfeiting/Internet” combination in the years to 2020, Guarnieri and Przyswa have formulated a number of recommendations for solving the problem. These consist, among other things, in recognizing the increasing overlap between the real and virtual worlds and the difficulty of regulating trade on the Internet. It is, they argue, through organizing “resilience” by way of good security strategies and a cooperative logic that the individuals, companies and institutions concerned will be able to confront the distribution of counterfeit products on the Internet, it being out of the question to eliminate them once and for all.
Ce hors-série de la revue Terra eco est consacré à l’avenir de la ville et à la ville durable. Alors qu’en 2050, les deux tiers des habitants de la planète seront urbains et que des crises énergétiques et climatiques s’annoncent, il est devenu nécessaire, selon les contributeurs du numéro, de repenser complètement le fonctionnement des villes.Les villes devront en effet relever de nombreux défis au cours des 40 prochaines années : baisse de la dépendance au pétrole ...
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Continuing the series begun in May 2012 aimed at reflecting the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise launched in France in 2009 by DATAR, Laurence Barthe and Johan Milian present here the lessons learned by the working group on low-density spaces, of which they were members. After going over the statistical definition of these spaces, how that definition has changed over time and the characteristic typology of the spaces, they give an account of low-density French territories based on four major areas of observation: the different populations involved, the changes to their economic fabric, their powers of attraction and their modes of social regulation.
Stressing that the place of these spaces in the spatial order has changed greatly in recent years, with what were once “territories in difficulty” becoming more attractive territories offering new opportunities, Barthe and Milian outline the five scenarios envisaged for the years to 2040: “Community Archipelagos” (demographic shrinkage and deregulation); “Productive Platforms” (strengthening of productive activities in agriculture, energy and the environment); “Low Density Reabsorbed” (in other words, overtaken by urban sprawl); “Enterprising Systems” (banking on innovation); and “The Urban Areas’ Forward Zone” (these territories becoming part of a more general paradigm of “sustainable towns/cities”).
Barthe and Milian go on to analyse two major challenges for low-density spaces in relation to the more general work carried out as part of Territories 2040: the enhanced capacity of these territories (in other words, their ability to control their destinies and find a place in the overall territorial system) and the ecological development of their resources.
Il y a tout juste 30 ans et dans les années qui ont suivi, l’acte I de la décentralisation se traduisait par un triple transfert de l’État aux collectivités locales. — De pouvoir : fin du contrôle a priori du préfet et liberté donnée aux collectivités d’élaborer, d’exécuter leur budget et de recourir à l’emprunt, l’État n’exerçant plus qu’un contrôle réglementaire (ou de légalité) a posteriori.— De compétences : collèges, lycées, action sociale, urbanisme, etc ...
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Futuribles is continuing the series, begun in May 2012, which aims to reflect the “Territoires 2040” foresight exercise launched in France by DATAR in 2009. This month’s article in that series is a presentation of the lessons learned from the work of the study group on territories that have a residential and tourism-related economic base. Magali Talandier begins by outlining the importance of the residential economy for the local development of territories. She looks at the question at the heart of this working group’s thinking: “what future is there for the processes of residential and tourist development that are based on the capture of wealth created elsewhere, by virtue of the disconnect between sites of production and sites of consumption?”
Four possible answers have been identified, corresponding to the four scenarios outlined here: “Oases, Urban Domes, Rural Domes” (the scenario involving rootedness in the territory and reduced mobility, against a background of a service-oriented economy); “Spheres of Life or Functional Specialization” (the scenario of the local residential economy in which individuals move from one functional sphere to another with a cautious mobility, but an extension of peri-urban spaces); “Spots or Network Mobility” (combining mobility, fluidity and functional multiplicity of places, against a background of hypermobility and the loss of territorial cohesion); and, lastly, the “Web” or A-territorialization scenario (reduced movement, with multiple, but essentially virtual relationships to places) that marks the end of the residential economy and presents serious risks for social cohesion. Lastly, Magali Talandier details the contribution made by this group’s work on two major issues for DATAR: the quality of territories for a mobile society and the organization of networks and time.
Eurostat vient de fournir de la statistique fraîche sur l’urbanisation européenne. Distinguant les zones essentiellement urbaines (41 % du territoire), des zones essentiellement rurales (23 %), la statistique communautaire souligne aussi l’existence de zones intermédiaires (35 %). Difficile parfois d’y retrouver ses petits (quand on lit souvent que la population européenne serait aux trois quarts urbaines), mais ces informations ont toute leur importance et permettent de revenir sur la façon d’établir, statistiquement, ce qui est urbain. Dans la grande ...
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Continuing the series begun in May 2012 that aims to reflect the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise launched in 2009 in France by DATAR, the national spatial planning agency, Gilles Pinson presents the lessons drawn from the work of the Foresight Group on Metropolitan Systems. After a timely reminder of the objectives of this foresight study – not to predict the future, but to “introduce a little perplexity into public policy networks” – he outlines the questions that framed the exercise: how are we to define a metropolis in France today and what are the major trends at work in the metropolitan systems in the particular context of post-Fordism and neo-liberal globalization? In this way, he shows the extent to which the economic developments at work at the international level modify and structure economic activities, social relations and ways of living and working in the French metropolises.
Drawing on this, Pinson presents the three scenarios developed for the years to 2040: the “Mercapole” scenario, characterized by hyperconnection, the rise of the private sector, the domination of economic interests and actors in the property market, which combines densification at the centre and urban sprawl on the outskirts; the “Archipole”, in which metropolises pay more than due regard to public regulation, but also engage in greater surveillance of citizens, against a background of city densification and respect for the environment; and, lastly, the “Antipole” scenario, a scenario of decoupling from the French economy against a background of the repoliticization of urban issues and local institutions, expressed in the emergence of “heritage” or tourist cities, on the one hand, and cities dominated by social groups developing alternatives to the neo-liberal model on the other. In conclusion, Gilles Pinson stresses the contribution of these scenarios to the thinking of public actors with regard, in particular, to levels of decision-making (European Union, state or cities) and the directions to be taken by policies on spatial planning and development.
« Territoire 2040 » est une démarche inédite dans le sens où la DATAR (Délégation interministérielle à l’aménagement du territoire et à l’action régionale) a eu le sentiment qu’elle ne pouvait plus appréhender la prospective et les territoires comme elle le faisait avant. Les travaux de la DATAR prennent tout leur sens s’ils trouvent une résonance dans les travaux réalisés par les collectivités.Face à ce constat, il subsistait un problème d’objet puisque la DATAR s’intéressait ...
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Cette étude s’inscrit dans le cadre d’une série de l’OCDE sur le développement régional. Selon les auteurs, la région Île-de-France possède de nombreux atouts lui permettant de s’orienter vers une croissance plus « verte » : une population jeune et bien formée, la meilleure performance en R&D et innovation de l’Europe, une base industrielle solide, un taux d’émission de CO2 faible par rapport à sa population, etc.L’Île-de-France est la 9e métropole la plus peuplée de ...
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Cette étude de prospective territoriale, lancée conjointement par le conseil général d’Aquitaine et l’INRA, vise à construire à l’horizon 2050 des scénarios contrastés d’évolution du massif des landes de Gascogne. Elle s’inscrit dans le cadre des réflexions post tempête Klaus sur l’avenir du massif landais.Les auteurs du rapport brossent au préalable un état des lieux détaillé du territoire et s’attachent à décrire ses tendances d’évolution et enjeux d’avenir tels que ...
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Futuribles here continues the series of articles begun by Gilles Le Blanc in the May 2012 issue aimed at reflecting the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise launched by DATAR in France in 2009 and showing the lessons that can be drawn from it. This second contribution presents the most noteworthy points from the group foresight work done on intermediate cities and their local spaces.
After reminding us how to grasp the spatial system of so-called “intermediate” cities conceptually, Francis Aubert et al. bring out the main characteristics of these spatial systems at the sociological, economic and political levels. They then present the hypotheses and main determinants which, at these three levels, underpin the scenarios they elaborated with respect to the future of the intermediate cities in the years to 2040. After a more precise description of these four alternative scenarios (“Uncertain Communities”, “Green Laboratories”, “Competing Specialisms” and “Interconnected Satellites”), the authors show what their analysis of the spatial systems of intermediate cities contributes to the general “Territories 2040” foresight exercise from the angle, on the one hand, of the “empowerment of all territories” and, on the other, of the coordination between territories and actors.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.