Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
According to European Commission forecasts, traffic on the various existing transport networks between the member states of the Union may double by the year 2020. Hence substantial investment in transport infrastructure is crucially necessary to put in place a network that can cope with this growth in traffic. This is why the Commission has allotted a budget of almost 500 billion euros for the period 2007-2020, more than half of it to be focused on priority projects or routes.
The extension of the high-speed rail network, particularly in the South-West of Europe, has a key role here. But such a project also depends largely on the backing of national governments – in this case, those of France, Spain and Portugal. Where are we at with the high-speed rail network for South-West Europe? What are the aims and prospects for the next few years? Jean-François Drevet here casts a very precise light on what might become of the rail network linking France, Spain and Portugal in less than 10 years’ time.
Futuribles devoted its summer issue (no. 354, July-August 2009) to the future of European cities in the current context of combating global warming and promoting sustainable development. As an extension of this debate, we are publishing a “forum” this month devoted more specifically to the future of Paris, as it is emerging following the series of consultations on the “Greater Paris” question and French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s stated preference for a sustainable capital extending as far as the port of Le Havre.
Jean-Paul Lacaze, a specialist in urban development, offers a highly critical analysis of this project here. Apart from certain “incongruous” aspects of the project, he deplores the failure to take account of the specific economic and social features of the Île-de-France region and the potential worsening of inequalities between the prosperous western part of that region and the less affluent eastern area. He stresses the serious housing problem in the region, which would not be solved by this new project. And though he agrees on the need to set the Parisian metropolis on a sustainable course, he doesn’t feel the necessary investment has been committed. In his view, it will take a large-scale experiment continuing for at least a decade if the hope is to bring Paris, along with many other French cities, into the “post-Kyoto” era.
Jean Haëntjens, who co-ordinated the Futuribles special issue “European Cities, Cities of the Future?” (no. 354, July-August 2009), responds, as part of this “forum”, to Jean-Paul Lacaze’s article on Greater Paris in this November issue. He is distinctly less critical than Jean-Paul Lacaze of the Greater Paris project and the consultation process around it, and he stresses the extent to which the shadow of Baron Haussmann continues to hover over current debates. In Jean Haëntjens’ view, it is essential that French cities, beginning with the capital, draw a line under the state urbanism embodied in the Napoleon III-Haussmann and De Gaulle-Delouvrier pairings, if they want to come into the 21st century. This represents an enormous undertaking and it is difficult to judge how long it will take or what the chances of success will be in what is still, to say the least, a centralized country…
Jean Viard is a specialist in time-usage and the way it has evolved historically and also an expert on the regions of France and the mobility of individuals across those regions. In this issue of Futuribles, devoted, as it is, in very large measure to European cities, he makes a detailed analysis of the social developments that have been ongoing for several decades and their consequences for the relationship to space in general and to cities in particular.
In his view, 21st-century urban style will be that of the "cloud city". To put it another way, the urban style historically based on place is now no longer the monopoly of cities; it has gradually been "virtualized", becoming a "multi-site" phenomenon. Moreover, the increase in healthy-life expectancy in a context of shorter working hours has produced a veritable time revolution, and the impact of that revolution on social relations and the use of time (free time, working time, time for romance etc.) also has effects on urban organization. In this way, Jean Viard shows that, despite its no longer being the principal activity in French people's time, work is still too often the key element in the way housing, urban districts and entire cities are structured, whereas social demand is increasingly oriented towards leisure and focuses on places where people can meet, walk etc. He also shows the degree to which the culture of mobility influences the organization of urban space today, enabling this to extend far beyond the historic boundaries of towns and cities. And in this mobile society, new polarities of development and attractiveness are emerging, alongside new dangers of (spatial and generational) segregation. These are the major future challenges cities are going to have to face up to: they will have take on board the fact that employment is no longer their prime determinant; they will need to grow, to smarten themselves up and to advertise their attractiveness - to become "sustainable" so as to win the loyalty of today's residents and attract people in the future, whether it be tourists, entrepreneurs or ordinary citizens.
Which are the most attractive European cities, where are they located and what are the causes or factors of their attractiveness? Christian Vandermotten, who has worked for many years on these questions at the IGEAT (Institut de gestion de l'environnement et d'aménagement du territoire), offers various elements of a response based on the international comparison studies carried out by that institution.
Apart from comparisons of GDP per inhabitant, he bases himself on two indices: the functional index and the internationalization index, which make it possible to appreciate the concrete assets possessed by a city or urban area (connectivity, the presence of company headquarters, knowledge economy, tourism, heritage etc.). This makes it possible to draw up a classification of the most internationalized and most functional cities, in which some large metropolitan districts (London, Paris, Rome, Madrid, Amsterdam, Brussels, Munich etc.) come out top, together with a number of Central or Eastern European capitals (Prague, Budapest, Warsaw etc.), though two of the capitals that "missed out" on the benefits of the opening-up to Eastern Europe (Berlin and Vienna) are not among their number and a certain number of other losers are also absent from the list, these being mainly cities and conurbations with longstanding industrial traditions (Manchester, Liverpool, Lille, the Ruhr etc.). The author does, however, stress that the newfound prosperity of the great European metropolises should not lead us to forget the social challenges that still have to be faced (integration of immigrant populations, governance, mobility etc.). And he concludes with remarks on the various elements that make for potential urban success in the economic, social, heritage, environmental and other fields.
With the economy at a low ebb, competition between towns and cities to attract companies, talent and tourists or to win the allegiance of their residents might well become tougher. Competition between cities isn't a new phenomenon. It has existed as long as trade has existed, but in the current context of accelerated globalization it has acquired a new face and cities are using all their ingenuity to showcase their particular strengths.
Among the means at their disposal, all kinds of ranking and benchmarking - to use the fashionable term - are increasingly being called on. Whether based on objective criteria or more subjective survey material, they enable cities to compare themselves with others and adapt their strategies to suit their particular strengths and weaknesses.
Émile Hooge has studied most of the benchmarking indices on the big metropolises currently in existence. After reminding us of the basis of cities' strategies in the international competition between them, he presents these indices here (European Cities of the Future, European Competitiveness Index, Quality of Living Index, European Cities Monitor, City Brands Index etc.), indicating their chief characteristics, together with the positive grounds for using them and, also, their limitations. He also shows that new areas of competition are emerging, with the two main fields currently covered by cities in their public relations (material values and image values) being potentially joined by the two complementary fields of functional values and identity values.
How are we to rethink the European city today and direct it on to a path of more sustainable development? David Mangin, the author of a standard reference work on the mechanisms that led to the emergence of "unsustainable" cities (La Ville franchisée. Paris: Éditions de la Villette, 2004) offers here various lines of thinking for the benefit of decision-makers in the public realm - and particularly in the field of town planning.
After reminding us of the mechanisms that led to the totally car-dominated "franchized city", of which the great North American cities are particularly emblematic, he identifies the lines of action to be taken to reverse this trend (in terms of infrastructures, choice of housing, organization of space). He does this on at least two levels: the basic ville passante (sometimes translated as "busy city", the concept implies open flows between areas and a predominance of walking and cycling) and the metropolis. The key thing today is to limit urban sprawl by optimizing the underused spaces in cities and their inner suburbs, and by rendering inter-urban relations between the suburbs of the great metropolises more fluid, while taking into account the particularities of each individual area.
In this issue, devoted in large measure to European cities, Futuribles opens its columns to Gérard Collomb, the mayor of Lyon. Lyon is the third-largest city in France in terms of population, but above all it is a city with strong European connections through its partnerships with other great metropolises.
Interviewed by Jean Haëntjens, Gérard Collomb relates how essential these collaborative initiatives between European cities are today, so that, on the one hand, cities do not merely submit to globalization, but actively participate in it through cooperation in key sectors (by way of competitiveness hubs, for example) and, on the other, a healthy level of emulation is maintained and local authorities are encouraged to make progress in the economic, scientific, environmental and other fields. In this respect, the "co-opetition" (a combination of the words co-operation and competition) established between European cities no doubt plays a crucial role, which this article enables us to grasp more clearly. It also encourages the big metropolises to devise new, more "sustainable" modes of urban development. Here, the European Union ought perhaps to operate at city rather than regional level in a number of strategic fields, such as housing and mobility.
The world-famous architect Bernard Reichen here outlines his future vision for European cities within the present context of "sustainable development". After reviewing the wrong turn taken by urbanism with the Athens Charter of 1942, he shows that we are ready today in Europe to reinvent the city, particularly where its practices are concerned. This reinvention, argues Bernard Reichen, will have three themes to it: strengthening the element of connectivity, promoting an "urban nature" and making use of recycling (the "sustainable city"). The twofold - ecological and economic - crisis we are currently living through thus presents us with an opportunity to rethink urban development. It is up to Europe's cities to grasp this opportunity to reinvent a new art of city living.
In the view of Jean Haëntjens, who has coordinated this issue's special dossier on European cities for Futuribles, it is accepted today that the current economic crisis calls for another, more eco-responsible model of development and that the organization of cities could have an important part to play in the definition of that model. In these circumstances, might the particular situation of the European cities constitute an asset for the Old Continent?
This article by Jean Haëntjens, the opening contribution to this special dossier, takes a general look at the current strategies and possible developments of European cities in the context of sustainable development. After reminding us of the influences and broad lines of development that have characterized European cities historically, Jean Haëntjens outlines the main strategies of the European cities, from the "fragmented city" of the 1960s and 70s, via the 1980s/90s period in which certain urban functions were improved (new transport networks, design changes, cultural influence), to contemporary urban policies characterized by eco-development. He then analyses the differences and convergences between these strategies, before arriving at a - relatively positive - assessment of the international positioning of Europe's cities. This being said, though the first transformations we have seen (for example in some Nordic cities) are rather encouraging, there is still much to do, particularly in terms of improving the congeniality of these cities, and attracting new workers to them and persuading them to stay. European cities have many advantages that help them make the 21st century transition to "sustainable cities", yet they still have further to go with the transformations they have set in train. They still have "to reinvent themselves".
Should the European Union have an urban policy? This is a tricky question, given the highly local issues that pertain in many European cities and the principle of subsidiarity dominating European policy, which states that the lead on policy must be devolved to the lowest decision-making level. The European Union has, in fact, no urban policy properly so-called, but, as Jean-François Drevet reminds us here, it has been intervening in urban matters for some 20 years.
After a number of pilot schemes, in 1994 the European Commission launched a specific Action Programme called "Urban", which was relaunched for the period 2000-2006 and is outlined in this column. Since 2007, the Commission has intervened in urban matters mainly through regional policy and as part of efforts to improve the competitiveness of European territories. In future, it will probably be the (territorial, social and economic) cohesion policy that will be called upon to play a specific role in urban questions.
La Bibliographie prospective du mois d'avril 2009 consacre son Focus à un exercice de prospective territoriale de la Région Nord-Pas-de-Calais intitulé "Vieillissement démographique et territoires en Nord-Pas-de-Calais à l'horizon 2025" qui s'attache à identifier les enjeux liés au vieillissement dans la région et donne lieu à la construction de quatre scénarios, dont la portée dépasse la seule région Nord-Pas-de-Calais. Vous trouverez par ailleurs, et comme chaque mois, une sélection de comptes rendus de livres, études et rapports ...
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Sylvain Saltiel, directeur des études territoriales à la Direction des études territoriales de l’Hérault, a présenté la démarche et les résultats de l’exercice prospectif mené par la Direction des études territoriales afin d’actualiser les diagnostics du territoires et de définir des scénarios d’évolution des missions du Conseil général.
La « bidonvillisation » comme perspective urbaine mondiale ? C'est avec cette question volontairement provocatrice que Julien Damon, sociologue, nous invite à explorer le phénomène de bidonvillisation des villes à l'échelle planétaire. S'il est remarquable de noter que, depuis 2008, plus d'un homme sur deux est urbain, il l'est tout autant de rappeler qu'un tiers d'entre eux vit dans des bidonvilles. Ce phénomène massif n'est pas nouveau. C'est ce que l'auteur s'attache ...
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De nouvelles projections du nombre de médecins en France à l?horizon 2030 viennent d?être réalisées par la DREES, avec le concours de la Direction de l?hospitalisation et de l?organisation des soins, et de l?Observatoire national de la démographie des professions de santé. Prenant pour base la situation au 1er janvier 2007 (208 000 médecins actifs), une première variante (dénommée scénario tendanciel) s?articule sur : ? un numerus clausus croissant de 2007 à 2011 (de 7 100 ...
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Il est souvent difficile, pour une région, d?anticiper les impacts que pourrait avoir le réchauffement climatique sur son territoire, alors même qu?il est très probable que ces impacts varient plus ou moins fortement selon les zones considérées, même à l?intérieur de la France. C?est pourquoi le CESR Bretagne s?est engagé dans un exercice de prospective sur ce sujet, afin de comprendre quels pourraient être les impacts du réchauffement climatique sur la région et, partant, sur ...
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Le premier collège du CESR a souhaité réaliser une étude prospective en construisant des scénarios sur l’avenir économique de la région Champagne-Ardenne à l’horizon 2030. Il est important de préciser que l’objectif des scénarios exploratoires n’est pas de décrire ce que sera demain. Il est d’éclairer les futurs possibles, de façon parfois tranchée voire caricaturale, afin d’éclairer les acteurs du territoire sur les avenirs économiques possibles de la région et de les aider à ...
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Ce rapport s?inscrit dans une réflexion globale sur la géographie prioritaire qui est au fondement des principes et des dispositifs de cette politique. Un livre vert établi au mois d?avril 2009 a été à la base d?une large consultation sur la rénovation de la politique de la ville. Parallèlement le Premier ministre a confié à Gérard Hamel et à Pierre André la mission de proposer une méthode opérationnelle de révision de la géographie des zones urbaines sensibles ...
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À l?occasion d?une réflexion sur l?avenir des transports, la Commission européenne a lancé une étude intitulée TRANSvisions, qui vise à définir des scénarios envisageables pour des transports à faible émission de carbone aux horizons 2030 et 2050. Le rapport, rédigé par des chercheurs européens, est coordonné par le centre de recherche danois Tetraplan A/S, spécialisé dans les transports. La méthode suivie consiste à combiner les outils d?analyse quantitatifs visant à réaliser des projections avec des ...
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Dans ce rapport, le Metropolitan Policy Program de la Brookings Institution étudie six tendances majeures de la démographie urbaine aux États-Unis, six tendances actuelles susceptibles de questionner la politique de Washington en matière d’économie et de société. Le ralentissement des migrations entre les États et entre les grandes aires urbaines constitue la première tendance. Du fait de la crise du logement et de la faible croissance économique, les grandes métropoles du Nord comme Chicago ont enregistré moins de départs ...
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Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.