Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
More than nine million counterfeit products were seized by the French customs in 2011, among which were a million and a half articles seized from carriers of express goods –in other words, articles from individual Internet orders. This latter figure attests to an expanding phenomenon which is as yet difficult to measure precisely, but could turn out to have serious consequences both for consumers and for certain sectors of the economy: namely, the growing distribution of counterfeit products –particularly, hazardous products– by way of the Internet.
Franck Guarnieri and Éric Przyswa present the main issues here, first recalling the particular context that the Internet represents for counterfeiters, together with the reality of the phenomenon and the inherent dangers. They also stress the difficulty of fighting counterfeit goods on the Internet at the international level, because debate and action are too targeted on the legal aspects (intellectual property in particular) or deal with cybercriminality without really confronting counterfeiting, and are based on a loose conglomeration of institutions that co-operate very little with one another. In this context, and given the prospects they foresee for the “counterfeiting/Internet” combination in the years to 2020, Guarnieri and Przyswa have formulated a number of recommendations for solving the problem. These consist, among other things, in recognizing the increasing overlap between the real and virtual worlds and the difficulty of regulating trade on the Internet. It is, they argue, through organizing “resilience” by way of good security strategies and a cooperative logic that the individuals, companies and institutions concerned will be able to confront the distribution of counterfeit products on the Internet, it being out of the question to eliminate them once and for all.
Continuing the series begun in May 2012 aimed at reflecting the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise launched in France in 2009 by DATAR, Laurence Barthe and Johan Milian present here the lessons learned by the working group on low-density spaces, of which they were members. After going over the statistical definition of these spaces, how that definition has changed over time and the characteristic typology of the spaces, they give an account of low-density French territories based on four major areas of observation: the different populations involved, the changes to their economic fabric, their powers of attraction and their modes of social regulation.
Stressing that the place of these spaces in the spatial order has changed greatly in recent years, with what were once “territories in difficulty” becoming more attractive territories offering new opportunities, Barthe and Milian outline the five scenarios envisaged for the years to 2040: “Community Archipelagos” (demographic shrinkage and deregulation); “Productive Platforms” (strengthening of productive activities in agriculture, energy and the environment); “Low Density Reabsorbed” (in other words, overtaken by urban sprawl); “Enterprising Systems” (banking on innovation); and “The Urban Areas’ Forward Zone” (these territories becoming part of a more general paradigm of “sustainable towns/cities”).
Barthe and Milian go on to analyse two major challenges for low-density spaces in relation to the more general work carried out as part of Territories 2040: the enhanced capacity of these territories (in other words, their ability to control their destinies and find a place in the overall territorial system) and the ecological development of their resources.
Ce hors-série de la revue Terra eco est consacré à l’avenir de la ville et à la ville durable. Alors qu’en 2050, les deux tiers des habitants de la planète seront urbains et que des crises énergétiques et climatiques s’annoncent, il est devenu nécessaire, selon les contributeurs du numéro, de repenser complètement le fonctionnement des villes.Les villes devront en effet relever de nombreux défis au cours des 40 prochaines années : baisse de la dépendance au pétrole ...
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Il y a tout juste 30 ans et dans les années qui ont suivi, l’acte I de la décentralisation se traduisait par un triple transfert de l’État aux collectivités locales. — De pouvoir : fin du contrôle a priori du préfet et liberté donnée aux collectivités d’élaborer, d’exécuter leur budget et de recourir à l’emprunt, l’État n’exerçant plus qu’un contrôle réglementaire (ou de légalité) a posteriori.— De compétences : collèges, lycées, action sociale, urbanisme, etc ...
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Futuribles is continuing the series, begun in May 2012, which aims to reflect the “Territoires 2040” foresight exercise launched in France by DATAR in 2009. This month’s article in that series is a presentation of the lessons learned from the work of the study group on territories that have a residential and tourism-related economic base. Magali Talandier begins by outlining the importance of the residential economy for the local development of territories. She looks at the question at the heart of this working group’s thinking: “what future is there for the processes of residential and tourist development that are based on the capture of wealth created elsewhere, by virtue of the disconnect between sites of production and sites of consumption?”
Four possible answers have been identified, corresponding to the four scenarios outlined here: “Oases, Urban Domes, Rural Domes” (the scenario involving rootedness in the territory and reduced mobility, against a background of a service-oriented economy); “Spheres of Life or Functional Specialization” (the scenario of the local residential economy in which individuals move from one functional sphere to another with a cautious mobility, but an extension of peri-urban spaces); “Spots or Network Mobility” (combining mobility, fluidity and functional multiplicity of places, against a background of hypermobility and the loss of territorial cohesion); and, lastly, the “Web” or A-territorialization scenario (reduced movement, with multiple, but essentially virtual relationships to places) that marks the end of the residential economy and presents serious risks for social cohesion. Lastly, Magali Talandier details the contribution made by this group’s work on two major issues for DATAR: the quality of territories for a mobile society and the organization of networks and time.
Eurostat vient de fournir de la statistique fraîche sur l’urbanisation européenne. Distinguant les zones essentiellement urbaines (41 % du territoire), des zones essentiellement rurales (23 %), la statistique communautaire souligne aussi l’existence de zones intermédiaires (35 %). Difficile parfois d’y retrouver ses petits (quand on lit souvent que la population européenne serait aux trois quarts urbaines), mais ces informations ont toute leur importance et permettent de revenir sur la façon d’établir, statistiquement, ce qui est urbain. Dans la grande ...
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Continuing the series begun in May 2012 that aims to reflect the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise launched in 2009 in France by DATAR, the national spatial planning agency, Gilles Pinson presents the lessons drawn from the work of the Foresight Group on Metropolitan Systems. After a timely reminder of the objectives of this foresight study – not to predict the future, but to “introduce a little perplexity into public policy networks” – he outlines the questions that framed the exercise: how are we to define a metropolis in France today and what are the major trends at work in the metropolitan systems in the particular context of post-Fordism and neo-liberal globalization? In this way, he shows the extent to which the economic developments at work at the international level modify and structure economic activities, social relations and ways of living and working in the French metropolises.
Drawing on this, Pinson presents the three scenarios developed for the years to 2040: the “Mercapole” scenario, characterized by hyperconnection, the rise of the private sector, the domination of economic interests and actors in the property market, which combines densification at the centre and urban sprawl on the outskirts; the “Archipole”, in which metropolises pay more than due regard to public regulation, but also engage in greater surveillance of citizens, against a background of city densification and respect for the environment; and, lastly, the “Antipole” scenario, a scenario of decoupling from the French economy against a background of the repoliticization of urban issues and local institutions, expressed in the emergence of “heritage” or tourist cities, on the one hand, and cities dominated by social groups developing alternatives to the neo-liberal model on the other. In conclusion, Gilles Pinson stresses the contribution of these scenarios to the thinking of public actors with regard, in particular, to levels of decision-making (European Union, state or cities) and the directions to be taken by policies on spatial planning and development.
« Territoire 2040 » est une démarche inédite dans le sens où la DATAR (Délégation interministérielle à l’aménagement du territoire et à l’action régionale) a eu le sentiment qu’elle ne pouvait plus appréhender la prospective et les territoires comme elle le faisait avant. Les travaux de la DATAR prennent tout leur sens s’ils trouvent une résonance dans les travaux réalisés par les collectivités.Face à ce constat, il subsistait un problème d’objet puisque la DATAR s’intéressait ...
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Cette étude s’inscrit dans le cadre d’une série de l’OCDE sur le développement régional. Selon les auteurs, la région Île-de-France possède de nombreux atouts lui permettant de s’orienter vers une croissance plus « verte » : une population jeune et bien formée, la meilleure performance en R&D et innovation de l’Europe, une base industrielle solide, un taux d’émission de CO2 faible par rapport à sa population, etc.L’Île-de-France est la 9e métropole la plus peuplée de ...
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Cette étude de prospective territoriale, lancée conjointement par le conseil général d’Aquitaine et l’INRA, vise à construire à l’horizon 2050 des scénarios contrastés d’évolution du massif des landes de Gascogne. Elle s’inscrit dans le cadre des réflexions post tempête Klaus sur l’avenir du massif landais.Les auteurs du rapport brossent au préalable un état des lieux détaillé du territoire et s’attachent à décrire ses tendances d’évolution et enjeux d’avenir tels que ...
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Futuribles here continues the series of articles begun by Gilles Le Blanc in the May 2012 issue aimed at reflecting the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise launched by DATAR in France in 2009 and showing the lessons that can be drawn from it. This second contribution presents the most noteworthy points from the group foresight work done on intermediate cities and their local spaces.
After reminding us how to grasp the spatial system of so-called “intermediate” cities conceptually, Francis Aubert et al. bring out the main characteristics of these spatial systems at the sociological, economic and political levels. They then present the hypotheses and main determinants which, at these three levels, underpin the scenarios they elaborated with respect to the future of the intermediate cities in the years to 2040. After a more precise description of these four alternative scenarios (“Uncertain Communities”, “Green Laboratories”, “Competing Specialisms” and “Interconnected Satellites”), the authors show what their analysis of the spatial systems of intermediate cities contributes to the general “Territories 2040” foresight exercise from the angle, on the one hand, of the “empowerment of all territories” and, on the other, of the coordination between territories and actors.
Une expression bien connue veut qu’un maire bâtisseur soit un maire battu. Pourtant, dans un sondage réalisé début mars 2012 par le CSA pour le Forum pour la gestion des villes et des collectivités territoriales auprès de 250 maires de communes de plus de 10 000 habitants, ceux-ci se déclarent prêts à se mobiliser pour la construction de logements neufs. 87 % d’entre eux considèrent que « mener une politique de logement volontariste, en particulier par la construction, a un ...
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This article by Gilles Le Blanc is the first in a series of eight aimed at responding to the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise, launched in 2009 by DATAR (Délégation interministérielle française à l’aménagement du territoire et à l’attractivité régionale), and at showing what lessons can be learned from that work. In this first instalment, the analysis is directed at the dynamics of industrial territories.
After briefly rehearsing the approach and method used in the “Territories 2040” exercise, Gilles Le Blanc reports on the foresight study carried out on industrial territories. He first defines what is covered by the notion of “industrial territories” (on the basis, among other things, of a “geography of industrial and productive activities”), then specifies the main factors affecting the development of those territories and the range of problems associated with them (particularly the issues of company boundaries and innovation). He then presents the four scenarios imagined for the industrial territories up to the year 2040, entitled respectively: “Green Industrial Reconstruction”, “Effervescence”, “Citadels” and “Alternative Industrialization”. He goes on to stress the main issues associated with these scenarios in terms of public policy and spatial planning, emphasizing in particular the possible uses of the scenarios, the geography of industrial and productive activities that would ensue from these scenarios up to 2040 and, lastly, the key factors, the risks and threats related to each scenario.
Economic crisis, global warming, eco-systems under threat, depleted public finances – the current situation, in Europe in particular, is scarcely favourable to needless expenditure and unrestrained consumption. It is, in fact, gradually becoming accepted that the time has perhaps come substantially to revise our modes of life, so as to consume more intelligently in a world whose limited resources have to be divided between a growing number of individuals. This, writes Jean Haëntjens, may involve recourse to the concept of frugality (producing more satisfaction with fewer resources), a concept that is not new, as is attested by the writings of Epicurus, but which, applied on the urban scale, offers genuine possibilities for establishing new developmental models.
Haëntjens presents the main characteristics of this concept of frugality here. He outlines the main strategies implemented by the pioneering cities in this area. He described what he terms the “palette of frugal options”, namely, the lines of possible action to achieve this end through urban policies. Lastly, he stresses how “frugal cities” might inspire national policies in terms of encouraging new lifestyles – and new styles of urbanism.
Le service statistique du Commissariat général au développement durable actait en décembre 2010 une augmentation de la gestion en régie des services de l’eau par les communes. Le signe d’une volonté de reprise en main directe des services publics par les collectivités ?
Au cours des 30 dernières années, le processus d’urbanisation a joué un rôle fondamental dans la croissance économique de la Chine. Ce nouveau paysage urbain est encore largement ignoré. Cette note reprend un article dans lequel deux spécialistes de la Chine, Gabe Collins et Andrew Erickson, dressent un bref profil « des 10 plus grandes villes de Chine dont vous n’avez probablement jamais entendu parler ».
Continuing the series of contributions on the Mediterranean basin, begun in Futuribles in 2011, this article by Yvette Veyret reminds us of the extent to which, despite the attractive image traditionally associated with the region, it is subject to various kinds of risks and not always well prepared to deal with them. First, the geological risks – earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and landslides – are far from negligible, as various natural disasters that have occurred in the past have shown. Yvette Veyret reminds us of the nature, potential intensity and very serious consequences which might ensue in a region that is distinctly more densely populated and urbanized today than it was only a few decades ago. Second, the region remains highly exposed to climatic risks, beginning with large-scale flooding in autumn, which may ravage entire villages within a few hours. The spectacular forest fires we see each year in the south of France, in Corsica or in Greece complete the picture.
The Mediterranean region is one of the areas most exposed to natural risks, but these thankfully manifest themselves on a generally more moderate scale than elsewhere. Nevertheless, as this article shows, the actions that could reduce the scope of such risks through prevention, protection and the informing of the public remain inadequate or ill-understood, or clash with other interests and are unable decisively to reduce the region’s vulnerability. Lastly, as is often the case, it is the poorest groups that are the most exposed and natural dangers serve, in this regard, as indicators of social and spatial inequalities.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.