Société, modes de vie
Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Jean-Jacques Salomon begins here by stating that the sequencing of the human genome, far from being an endeavour for human welfare, is the subject of a bitter competition, in particular, between public and private sector interests, and that its mapping reflects the geography of power...
Thus, the primary question according to him is whether the human genome is part of the common legacy of humanity (and constitutes a public good) or whether it can be, as is already the case today, privately appropriated and therefore sooner or later, become tradable.
The author subsequently stresses that the human genome cannot be understood as being identical and common to all humans, i.e. the genome of universal man, the average genome. On the contrary, quoting Richard Horton, he shows that the "practical interest of the human genome lies not so much in its actual sequence itself as in the genetic variations between individuals".
Finally, opposing all forms of genetic determinism, Jean-Jacques Salomon reminds us that human beings are not made up of genes that totally predetermine them, but that they also are the product of a social and cultural environment and that any theory explaining human behaviour through strictly physical and chemical factors is an aberration.
Never, it seems, has the progress of science and technique been so ambivalent, giving rise (in particular in the realm of life sciences) to such fears and such hopes.
Discussing here the progress in genetics, Jacques Testart shows first the role played by myths and reality in the progress achieved so far, underlining in particular how the progress in knowledge reveals the depth of our ignorance, or rather, the uncertainty that surrounds many questions. "The attitude of scientific and political authorities reveals a concern to believe and make believe in the control of genetics, a concern which tends towards falsification and irresponsibility" he writes, in order to expose human vanity and the tendency to boast about a knowledge that one does not really have.
Despite that remaining doubt, the author in a second part shows "how we can use genetics". He stresses what advances can be expected, especially in so called predictive medicine, but simultaneously warns about the inherent dangers to genetic selection, the competition towards "molecular enhancement" or worse even, towards "genetic purification" and dangerous "molecular tagging".
It is high time says the author, to "demystify the fabulous promises of genetics and to democratise the field of techno-science". Here lies, no doubt, the greatest challenge for the years to come, in which all of us have a stake and which we can't leave to the secret deliberations of the few genetic initiates alone.
La problématique générale de cet article est d'esquisser les contenus de ce que pourrait être une politique d'aménagement du territoire qui appréhenderait la dimension temporelle au regard de sa propre dynamique mais aussi de celle de son inscription territoriale. Dans un premier temps, les auteurs synthétisent les questions relatives au temps qui ont émergé des territoires associés à la démarche, qu'il s'agisse de problèmes liés à la flexibilisation des temporalités de travail ou à la diversification ...
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In the article we are reprinting this month under the rubric "Futures of Yesteryear" Marie Bordoy dreams of seeing a Tower of Babel constructed in Paris, emulating the Eiffel Tower.
The unprecedented success of the Eiffel Tower encouraged this woman, who was influential in the Paris building trade in the late 19th century, to envisage adding a magnificent monument -covering 32,000 square meters, 140 meters high, with seven floors and hanging gardens- to the Bois de Boulogne. In this unique edifice, intended to be among the most modern and extraordinary, people would have spoken every language under the sun. It was to be not just a visitor attraction, a place of leisure and entertainment, but also a meeting place for industrialists, manufacturers and inventors from all over the world. Thirty million visitors were expected to travel from the four corners of the Earth to see it.
The plans for this architectural marvel, commissioned from Dominique Minaca, conjured up a magical world of distant peoples, combining utility and pleasure, splendour and originality -but never became a reality.
S'il y a des difficultés de recrutement, celles-ci ne sont pas imputables à une pénurie de main-d'oeuvre mais, me semble-t-il, au hiatus existant entre les revenus escomptés et les salaires proposés, entre les qualifications acquises et celles requises, entre la nature des emplois auxquels les gens aspirent et celle des emplois offerts . Les articles de Xavier Godinot et d'Éric Keslassy que nous publions ce mois-ci m'offrent l'opportunité de revenir sur cette question, plus spécialement celle ...
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Everyone agrees that poverty is dreadful and that its eradication should be a top priority. Yet while knowledge is recognized to be the greatest form of wealth for today's societies, enormous inequalities are developing not just in financial terms but also in access to knowledge.
Xavier Godinot sets out here to show that there are different sorts of knowledge: theoretical knowledge, which is often the most highly valued -and is indeed the basis for a process of segregation- but also knowledge related to living and acting, not to mention spiritual knowledge, which is probably shared more equitably but which is harder to express, recognize and turn to good account.
The fight against poverty cannot be limited to efforts that allow a few to escape from want while others are relegated to the categories of disabled and unemployable. Nor cannot it succeed by relying on pseudo-training courses in which noble "manipulators of symbols" claim to instruct the poor, or by maintaining a two-tier system of training and job placement that merely reinforces inequalities, especially given that the educational system cannot on its own remedy the differences in family background.
Echoing the philosopher Michel Serres, Godinot stresses that "the fight against poverty and social exclusion does indeed involve the acquisition of knowledge [...] but it is above all about recognizing kinds of knowledge that are not valued", especially the kinds of knowledge related to living and acting that poor people have, and which need to be linked with theoretical types of knowledge.
Using as an example the experience gained in the "Quart Monde Université" programme, Godinot shows how it is possible, by bringing together poor people, social workers and academics against a background of mutual respect, for everyone to learn from everyone else and for the whole group to make progress - progress towards greater understanding of the processes whereby people become poor and excluded; progress towards the process of empowering the least fortunate in society.
Xavier Godinot is thus not content with denouncing poverty; he describes here a promising way forward based not on aid but on partnership, a partnership that ultimately enriches everyone involved, from the richest to the poorest.
« Ouvrage d'histoire immédiate, L'Année sociale se doit de mettre en évidence les incertitudes du temps, de rechercher ce qui continue sous l'apparence du changement, ce qui se modifie sans que l'œil perçoive immédiatement le flux et le reflux » écrit en introduction René Mouriaux. Ce recueil offre en effet l'opportunité de faire un retour sur l'année écoulée et d'en dégager les tendances significatives. Une première partie est consacrée à la chronique des évènements sociaux ...
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Bien que le phénomène des langues en péril soit connu, son étude systématique au niveau mondial est récente. Ce livre expose de manière concise le processus par lequel les langues deviennent menacées et rend compte des efforts entrepris par la communauté scientifique, en coopération avec l'Unesco, pour recenser ces langues et les rentrer dans une base de données. L'étude présente également un atlas des langues en péril identifiées à ce jour.
There are today two opposing views of the place of religious belief: that of Samuel Huntington, who argues that there are lasting differences between the Christian, Moslem, Confucian and other civilizations which will ultimately and inevitably lead to conflict; and that which argues that the processes of modernization and postmodernization will give rise to widespread cultural changes, with a general convergence of values despite initially divergent religious beliefs.
Jean Joncheray, basing his analysis on an article by Ronald Inglehart, first demonstrates that these two views are not as incompatible as they might appear, thanks to the "growing tolerance of diversity", if for no other reason. Then, focusing more closely on the position of Christianity in Europe, he wonders whether Christianity may not be "the religion to end religions". Taking up the arguments of Marcel Gauchet, he suggests that, by abandoning efforts to impose the truth by force, Christians have opened the way to human rights, freedom of conscience and therefore, to some extent, the decline of religion.
But matters are not so simple and Joncheray ends by offering three possible scenarios for the future of Catholicism in France:
- it might become "a marker of identity" in which a tiny minority of practising Catholics take refuge;
- it might be reduced to a cultural phenomenon, as French culture continues to be shaped by Christian values which are part of the "general heritage of the past" in French society;
- there might be a "revival of a religious outlook" which would arise as a democratic, pluralist and secular society attempted to provide itself once more with shared values derived from humanism.
Pierre Bréchon shows here that, despite the existence of some national religious characteristics, international surveys reveal certain trends common to all countries, mainly resulting from generational change and ageing.
The main findings of his study of 11 European countries and the United States are:
- confidence in the churches has declined more than trust in other institutions;
- strength of religious convictions is often seen as a sign of intolerance;
- belief in a single faith (religious exclusiveness) is clearly waning, whereas the idea that all faiths contain an element of truth is becoming more widespread.
The writer highlights the decline of feelings of identity based on religion, albeit with marked variations depending on the religious group and the country concerned. But he shows that, while complete absence of belief is extremely rare, the range of different beliefs is enormous: belief in God, in various kinds of reincarnation, in heaven and hell, in miracles, and so on.
In all countries, belief is less and less linked with belonging to an established religion, and is increasingly an individual matter. But the situation in France seems unusual, in that young French people sometimes appear more likely to believe than their elders.
Réalisation d'une analyse prospective des clientèles internationales touristiques en provenance d'Allemagne, de France et du Royaume Uni à partir d'une démarche générationnelle à l'horizon 2020
C'est à un exercice d'intelligence collective qu'a invité cette première biennale afin de revivifier la culture prospective, en favorisant le dialogue entre tous les acteurs concernés : État, administrations, partenaires sociaux, collectivités territoriales, entreprises, chercheurs, universités... La démarche part des personnes (sondages sur la perception du futur, présentation de l'enquête Valeurs) pour ensuite élargir le débat au cours de tables rondes et d'ateliers sur des initiatives citoyennes permettant d'améliorer la vie quotidienne. Cette approche très ...
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On ne parle plus aujourd'hui de la famille mais des familles, dans leurs multiples formes : familles monoparentales, recomposées, de « cœur » (adoption), « bioéthiques » (issues de la procréation médicalement assistée) ou encore cohabitantes....C'est en effet une « gigantesque pagaille » qui affecte ce « jardin à la française » qu'était la famille il y a encore peu de temps. Jean-Michel Gaillard revient sur l'émergence de ce lieu privilégié de l'intimité à partir de la Renaissance et explique comment la famille ...
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Pour son huitième rapport moral sur l'argent dans le monde, l'Association d'économie financière a choisi de revenir sur quatre grands thèmes qui ont marqué le monde de la finance durant l'année 2000-2001. Sur fond de crise majeure des relations internationales et de remise en cause radicale du système financier mondial provoquée par les attentats du 11 septembre 2001, les auteurs se sont tout d'abord penchés sur les enjeux de l'économie mondialisée. Dans cette première ...
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This newly released report: Tourism 2020 Vision - Americas continues WTO's programme in the field of forecast studies. This regional volume on Americas is divided into three parts. Part one examines the development of tourism in Americas in the first half of the 1990s, analyzing especially the key factors which determined American prospects. The second part deals with the various determinants governing the forecast to the year 2020, while the third part presents the forecasts themselves taking as well into ...
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Whereas religion was on the wane in the 1960s and 1970s, for the last 20 or 30 years there has been a great boom in spirituality of all kinds, though admittedly now more vague and individualized. But, according to Yves Lambert, beyond these two developments, secularization then renewal, we are witnessing decline, adaptation, attempts to conserve or to innovate which he tries to clarify here from the viewpoint of a sociologist of religions.
The decline is the product, he argues, of modernity and the values associated with it: the primacy of reason, individualism and diversity. But with "ultramodernity", these same values (reason, individualism, etc.) have become relative, and this has deprived religion of its most formidable rivals but also led the Church to abandon its pretensions to hegemony. Religions have themselves become relativized: they are losing their authority and are developing "belief without belonging", a more personal form of faith.
We are thus witnessing a process of adaptation. "The crisis of rationality encourages the search for ways of expressing affects and subjective experience of the divine [...]; we are moving towards à la carte Christianity" and we are seeing a revival of belief in many forms as well as a coming together of the human and the divine. The principle of authority, of transcendance, is therefore being replaced by a spiritual quest that is more spontaneous and individualized. People no longer expect religion to provide the truth, but rather they want it to offer something in this new quest for fulfilment. Is Christianity falling apart or emerging renewed? asks the author, who concludes that by giving up its totalitarian character, Christianity is acting consistently with its original values.
However, the author recognizes that this process also provokes conservative reactions. Nevertheless, when he looks at the available studies, he notes that the fundamentalists everywhere remain in the minority and the adaptation of Christianity to modernity reveals its amazing capacities for innovation. He highlights the consequent expansion of new forms of religion typical of "ultramodernity": individualization, "autospirituality", pragmatism, mobility...
These four developments are happening but not with equal probability, concludes Lambert, and the "proliferation of religions" could give rise to quite different social changes in different regions.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.