Société, modes de vie

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Revue

Population - Société, modes de vie

Les causes de la délinquance. Un bref panorama des théories disponibles

In this article, Lorraine Tournyol du Clos provides a brilliant survey of the main theories that have been put forward up till now to explain the causes and the mechanisms behind delinquency. She distinguishes between the "classic" theories (which in her view focus on a single type of delinquency and offer a single explanatory factor) and the more recent ones which, combining the findings of earlier theories and taking account of the interaction among the different factors, try to arrive at a better understanding of the phenomena of delinquency.
Among the "classic" theories she distinguishes:
- the biological theories, which consider that delinquent behavior can be explained by the physical and psychological characteristics of the guilty person, and the sociological theories, which focus more on the person's background and on factors like poverty and social inequality or social norms and a failed socialization;
- the economic theories of criminal behavior, which differ from the previous group in that they assume that the person acted freely and was responsible for their actions; their choices can be analyzed in terms of various criteria, which she outlines.
Among the "integrated" theories of criminal behavior, she identifies the sociological ones as against those derived from classical economics, and gives a thumbnail sketch of their main features.
The author concludes with an overview of the causes and interpretations of criminal behavior, distinguishing between immediate and deeper causes, and ending with a general synthesis of all these studies.

Forum

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Contre la dérive des lois dites de bioéthique

Everyone knows what rapid progress is being made in genetics, about the hopes and fears that these advances create, and the unprecedented philosophical and ethical issues they raise. Given the weightiness of the issues related to these developments, a committee on bioethics has been set up within the Futuribles group in order to discuss these problems freely.
With a view to the forthcoming debate in the French parliament on possible changes to the 1994 law on bioethics and given the serious problems raised by the new project, some members of the bioethics committee drew up a manifesto which was published originally in the daily newspaper Le Monde on 18 January 2002, before the debate could be suspended and the issue put off indefinitely, probably until after the French elections are over.
We publish the manifesto here, which argues that human cloning must not become routine and the democratic debate about the issue must not be taken over by agencies whose independence is suspect.

Revue

Population - Société, modes de vie

Parents, êtes-vous responsables ? Le rôle de la famille dans la délinquance des jeunes, résultats d’un enquête sur la délinquance « autodéclarée »

Is the shift from the traditional model of the family, based on respect for acknowledged status and norms of behavior, to a more open, "contractual" model in which individuals act according to their feelings on the basis of rules that are both negotiable and revocable -in short, families that are more precarious- one reason for the instability of children who have no points of reference and are therefore more likely to become delinquents?
No, is basically the answer given by Vincent Tournier: the relationship between parents and children is much more important than the make-up of the family -what matters is how close they are emotionally and the degree of parental supervision. Moreover, the latter is not correlated with social class (though an urban, rather than rural setting, is indeed a significant factor) but much more with the level of education and -even more- with parental values.
Can one then blame the growth in delinquency on permissive parents who were themselves young in the 1960s? Perhaps, Tournier acknowledges, but the situation is changing. Contrary to an unfortunate tradition in France, we need urgently to recognize the critical role of parents in bringing up their children, and it is possible to hope that, as parents become better educated, they will also act more responsibly in this regard.

Revue

Société, modes de vie

Les statistiques incertaines de la délinquance

There is a steadily growing sense of insecurity in France. Consequently the problems of rising crime rates, especially offences committed by young people, are often headline news and are a key issue in political debates, especially in the run-up to major elections.
But what is the 'true' position with regard to the number of delinquents and recorded crimes? Lorraine Tournyol du Clos describes the sources of information available, their good and bad points, and lastly the great difficulties we face in trying to answer these questions properly.
The figures vary widely, depending on whether the source is self-confessed law-breaking, surveys of victims of crime, police statistics or data on court verdicts, since each measures something different. Lastly, the author stresses, we do not really know how many delinquents there are, the numbers and nature of the crimes committed, and even less how the trends change over the long term.
It seems likely that crime is on the increase. But we should treat with caution the numbers being bandied about, their treatment in the media and the use made of them for political ends.

Revue

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Le traitement judiciaire des désordres mineurs. Médiation, réparation, admonestation

The last two decades have seen repeated low-level offences that increase social tensions and damage the environment. Have such offences really increased? Is there a greater awareness on the part of victims? Is there something wrong with non-judicial forms of punishment?
In any event, although many cases are closed without any follow-up, Milburn argues that the need to deal with these offences has been reaffirmed. The state prosecutors, who are central to the actions of the courts and alive to "zero tolerance", have opted for the famous "third way": they have created peri-judicial sentences intended to "restore social bonds".
Milburn examines two common approaches:
- compulsory mediation, bringing the perpetrator of the crime face-to-face with his or her victim as a means of punishment;
- forcing young offenders to make good the damage they have done, a sentence intended to be "restorative" and educative, aiming to rebuild the link between the young person and the community.
According to Philip Milburn, whereas classic legal sentencing relies on sanctions, 'restorative justice' is based on the will of the accused and the social significance they attach to their acts. These innovations reflect, on the one hand, an approach seeking reparation in which the law is less important than involving citizens in formalizing self-regulation of community life and, on the other, a 'neo-retributive' approach that offers a legal response based on admonition and potential sanctions.

CR table ronde

Société, modes de vie

Fondamentalismes et violence à l’heure de la mondialisation

En exergue à son intervention au siège de Futuribles International, Jean-François Mayer a voulu insister sur le fait qu'il s'intéressait à tout ce qui regarde les interactions entre les facteurs politiques et religieux. Il ne prétend pas être originellement ni exclusivement spécialiste ddes fondamentalismes, même si, à l'occasion des évènements du 11 septembre 2001 et de l'afflux subséquent de demandes d'expertise et d'opinions, il s'est trouvé une fois de plus sollicité pour s ...

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CR table ronde

Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

L’esprit des nations

Au sein de la Rand Corporation, principale organisation de recherche privée américaine sur les problèmes géopolitiques, stratégiques et de défense comptant 1 500 personnes, dont 800 chercheurs, Laurent Murawiec se consacre essentiellement à l'application de l'anthropologie à la stratégie.Venu présenter au sein de l'association Futuribles International son dernier ouvrage, le premier tome de L'Esprit des nations, il a insisté toutefois sur le fait que c'est indépendamment de la Rand Corporation qu'il l'a ...

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Revue

Économie, emploi - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

La dictature du partenariat. Vers de nouveaux modes de management public ?

The concept of partnership is, like governance, fashionable at the moment. It seems to meet a need for a thorough overhaul of the methods (institutions and procedures) of public management, which in turn results from what some refer to as 'the crisis of the state'.
Especially in the area of social protection, which used to be dominated by 'paritarisme' (equal representation, especially of the 'social partners'), partnerships are increasingly being fostered between public authorities at various levels (the products in part of efforts to devolve power away from the central administration) and institutions representing civil society to a greater or lesser extent: trade unions, of course, but also a whole series of new players, in particular voluntary organizations, whose claims to be representative need to be kept under scrutiny.
Julien Damon describes how this process is developing in France, and questions its raison d'être, its benefits and drawbacks, including the risk that it will lead to the gradual dismantling of the responsibilities that properly belong to the state, a distortion and dilution of the concept of the public good, even institutional arrangements of questionable legitimacy. In doing this he touches on the problem of a style of governance that, in the guise of promoting greater closeness to the governed, might lead to institutional confusion, carrying with it threats to both democracy and the efficacy of the policies for which, in his view, the state should continue to be primarily responsible.

Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie

« Compétitivité de l’industrie française : les enseignements d’une comparaison européenne »

Depuis 1997, la croissance plus forte de l'économie française est aussi plus riche en emplois. Une telle évolution, synonyme d'une décélération des gains de productivité, pourrait être préoccupante si elle affectait la compétitivité. Cependant, dans le secteur manufacturier, particulièrement exposé à la concurrence internationale, les gains de productivité apparaissent réguliers depuis les années 1970 ; les comparaisons effectuées par rapport à l'Allemagne, au Royaume-Uni et à l'Espagne indiquent la particularité française à cet égard. La politique macroéconomique ...

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Bibliography

Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Nouveaux modèles technologiques et compétitivité nationale : le potentiel de la prospective régionale

Cet article examine les relations entre prospective technologique et politique régionale, en vue d'améliorer la compétitivité et la capacité de croissance des pays. Selon l'auteur, le développement économique est fortement lié aux avancées technologiques, elles-mêmes tributaires de facteurs nationaux mais aussi régionaux. De fait, pour améliorer la compétitivité d'un pays, il faut élargir le champ de la prospective technologique, faire en sorte que celle-ci affine son analyse des différents facteurs qui influent sur une spécialisation régionale (par ...

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Bibliography

Société, modes de vie

« La consommation des ménages depuis quarante ans. Perte de vitesse des dépenses traditionnelles »

En quarante ans, la dépense de consommation par habitant a été multipliée par 2,7 en monnaie constante. L'environnement du consommateur a changé : l'extension de la grande distribution, l'évolution des modes de vie, l'apparition de nouveaux produits ont modifié les comportements de consommation. La perte de vitesse des dépenses traditionnelles a été pour partie compensée par le dynamisme des produits à haute technologie. Ils ont pris le relais des appareils électroménagers, désormais largement diffusés. Néanmoins, la ...

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Revue

Éducation - Société, modes de vie

Éthique, valeurs et citoyenneté à l’école

Walo Hutmacher stresses the need for a methodology to underpin a rigorous study of the future of education, especially with regard to the issue of values and citizenship, which is closely linked to potential developments in science and technology, as well as in political, economic and social organization at global level.
In the absence of such a methodology, Hutmacher sets out to identify some key trends in current developments and to analyse their possible impact on education systems. He discusses in particular the new ethical issues raised by scientific progress, the consequences of globalization and the decline of the nation-state, as well as the significance of the new youth cultures.
Finally, he looks critically at what is currently happening in schools, above all the gulf between preaching and practice. Yet for all its faults, he argues that the model of state education should be the policy model for 2020, given the important social functions that it provides, especially if it is able to satisfy certain key conditions for bringing about essential reforms.

Bibliography

Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

Vers un mode de consommation durable des ménages ? Tendances et politiques dans les pays de l’OCDE

La poursuite des objectifs de développement durable passe par un changement des modes de consommation. Dix ans après le Sommet de la Terre de Rio de Janeiro, quel bilan peut-on dresser ? Les pays de l'OCDE se sont-ils engagés dans la voie de la consommation durable ? Comment promouvoir une consommation durable de façon efficace ? Ce livre offre une étude complète des tendances de consommation des ménages dans cinq domaines clés : la consommation alimentaire, les transports liés au tourisme, la consommation ...

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Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Société, modes de vie

France, portrait social 2002-2003

Cette nouvelle édition de France, portrait social, basée sur les chiffres de l'année 2001, est placée sous le signe du « ralentissement » - ralentissement de l'emploi, avec une hausse limitée de 181 000 postes supplémentaires après + 548 000 en 2000, année record ; ralentissement de l'activité économique, avec une croissance en retrait de plus d'un point sur celle des trois années précédentes. On assiste également à une remontée du chômage, en particulier celui des jeunes de moins de 25 ...

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Bibliography

Société, modes de vie - Territoires, réseaux

Le Tourisme. Un phénomène économique

Le tourisme, tout à la fois fait de société et phénomène économique, a longtemps souffert de l'image d'un secteur professionnel marginal, notamment parce que sa nature multiforme est difficile à appréhender d'un point de vue statistique et que la consommation touristique est très hétérogène. L'auteur démontre qu'au contraire, le tourisme est un secteur fondamental des économies nationales. En France, premier pays « récepteur » mondial de touristes avec 76,5 millions d'arrivées en 2001, le poste ...

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Bibliography

Société, modes de vie

Cinq Histoires pour changer le monde (sans trop se raconter d’histoires)

Loin des utopies ou des théories sociales, ce livre s'inscrit dans une démarche volontaire et pragmatique visant à identifier les futurs « souhaitables » déjà à l'œuvre à travers le monde. À partir de cinq initiatives en effet, Véronique Léna, directrice du Laboratoire du futur, se demande quels sont les éléments de réussite et en quoi elles sont transposables ailleurs (comment passer « du prototype à la série »). Ces initiatives sont : le développement du microcrédit au Bangladesh avec la banque Grameen ...

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Bibliography

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Le Crime était presque sexuel. Et autres essais de casuistique juridique

Dans ce livre, la juriste M. Iacub présente, en les rassemblant, ses divers articles portant sur la régulation du comportement sexuel dans le droit contemporain français et les lois bioéthiques de 1994. Ces essais de casuistique juridique sont regroupés en trois parties, portant respectivement sur les modalités de l'intégration du rapport sexuel dans la loi, sur l'artificialisation de la vie par les nouvelles techniques médicales, et enfin sur le maintien de la division juridique des sexes aussi bien ...

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Revue

Éducation - Société, modes de vie

Pour l’introduction de l’éthique à l’école

The teaching of morals and citizenship, which was central to French education policy from the time of Jules Ferry, has now been virtually abandoned - even though, as Christian Nique argues, schools have a major role to play in ensuring social cohesion and filling the moral vacuum created by the rise of individualism.
Nique argues that schools should not relinquish this responsibility. He ponders what the differences might be between ethics -a concept that is more acceptable today- and morals -which is based on the idea of a code of human behaviour imposed from above; he ultimately concludes that, whatever the semantic differences, society cannot live without laws, except at the risk of falling apart or becoming the victim of a "moral order" imposed by a minority...
Concerned above all to preserve the social fabric but also aware of the important ethical issues likely to face tomorrow' adults, Nique argues forcefully that schools (perhaps the last institution capable of taking on this role) should once again give high priority to the teaching of ethics, morals and citizenship, which in future will be more essential than ever.

Chapitre Société, modes de vie

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.