Société, modes de vie
Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Jean-Jacques Salomon begins here by stating that the sequencing of the human genome, far from being an endeavour for human welfare, is the subject of a bitter competition, in particular, between public and private sector interests, and that its mapping reflects the geography of power...
Thus, the primary question according to him is whether the human genome is part of the common legacy of humanity (and constitutes a public good) or whether it can be, as is already the case today, privately appropriated and therefore sooner or later, become tradable.
The author subsequently stresses that the human genome cannot be understood as being identical and common to all humans, i.e. the genome of universal man, the average genome. On the contrary, quoting Richard Horton, he shows that the "practical interest of the human genome lies not so much in its actual sequence itself as in the genetic variations between individuals".
Finally, opposing all forms of genetic determinism, Jean-Jacques Salomon reminds us that human beings are not made up of genes that totally predetermine them, but that they also are the product of a social and cultural environment and that any theory explaining human behaviour through strictly physical and chemical factors is an aberration.
Never, it seems, has the progress of science and technique been so ambivalent, giving rise (in particular in the realm of life sciences) to such fears and such hopes.
Discussing here the progress in genetics, Jacques Testart shows first the role played by myths and reality in the progress achieved so far, underlining in particular how the progress in knowledge reveals the depth of our ignorance, or rather, the uncertainty that surrounds many questions. "The attitude of scientific and political authorities reveals a concern to believe and make believe in the control of genetics, a concern which tends towards falsification and irresponsibility" he writes, in order to expose human vanity and the tendency to boast about a knowledge that one does not really have.
Despite that remaining doubt, the author in a second part shows "how we can use genetics". He stresses what advances can be expected, especially in so called predictive medicine, but simultaneously warns about the inherent dangers to genetic selection, the competition towards "molecular enhancement" or worse even, towards "genetic purification" and dangerous "molecular tagging".
It is high time says the author, to "demystify the fabulous promises of genetics and to democratise the field of techno-science". Here lies, no doubt, the greatest challenge for the years to come, in which all of us have a stake and which we can't leave to the secret deliberations of the few genetic initiates alone.
La problématique générale de cet article est d'esquisser les contenus de ce que pourrait être une politique d'aménagement du territoire qui appréhenderait la dimension temporelle au regard de sa propre dynamique mais aussi de celle de son inscription territoriale. Dans un premier temps, les auteurs synthétisent les questions relatives au temps qui ont émergé des territoires associés à la démarche, qu'il s'agisse de problèmes liés à la flexibilisation des temporalités de travail ou à la diversification ...
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In the article we are reprinting this month under the rubric "Futures of Yesteryear" Marie Bordoy dreams of seeing a Tower of Babel constructed in Paris, emulating the Eiffel Tower.
The unprecedented success of the Eiffel Tower encouraged this woman, who was influential in the Paris building trade in the late 19th century, to envisage adding a magnificent monument -covering 32,000 square meters, 140 meters high, with seven floors and hanging gardens- to the Bois de Boulogne. In this unique edifice, intended to be among the most modern and extraordinary, people would have spoken every language under the sun. It was to be not just a visitor attraction, a place of leisure and entertainment, but also a meeting place for industrialists, manufacturers and inventors from all over the world. Thirty million visitors were expected to travel from the four corners of the Earth to see it.
The plans for this architectural marvel, commissioned from Dominique Minaca, conjured up a magical world of distant peoples, combining utility and pleasure, splendour and originality -but never became a reality.
Everyone agrees that poverty is dreadful and that its eradication should be a top priority. Yet while knowledge is recognized to be the greatest form of wealth for today's societies, enormous inequalities are developing not just in financial terms but also in access to knowledge.
Xavier Godinot sets out here to show that there are different sorts of knowledge: theoretical knowledge, which is often the most highly valued -and is indeed the basis for a process of segregation- but also knowledge related to living and acting, not to mention spiritual knowledge, which is probably shared more equitably but which is harder to express, recognize and turn to good account.
The fight against poverty cannot be limited to efforts that allow a few to escape from want while others are relegated to the categories of disabled and unemployable. Nor cannot it succeed by relying on pseudo-training courses in which noble "manipulators of symbols" claim to instruct the poor, or by maintaining a two-tier system of training and job placement that merely reinforces inequalities, especially given that the educational system cannot on its own remedy the differences in family background.
Echoing the philosopher Michel Serres, Godinot stresses that "the fight against poverty and social exclusion does indeed involve the acquisition of knowledge [...] but it is above all about recognizing kinds of knowledge that are not valued", especially the kinds of knowledge related to living and acting that poor people have, and which need to be linked with theoretical types of knowledge.
Using as an example the experience gained in the "Quart Monde Université" programme, Godinot shows how it is possible, by bringing together poor people, social workers and academics against a background of mutual respect, for everyone to learn from everyone else and for the whole group to make progress - progress towards greater understanding of the processes whereby people become poor and excluded; progress towards the process of empowering the least fortunate in society.
Xavier Godinot is thus not content with denouncing poverty; he describes here a promising way forward based not on aid but on partnership, a partnership that ultimately enriches everyone involved, from the richest to the poorest.
S'il y a des difficultés de recrutement, celles-ci ne sont pas imputables à une pénurie de main-d'oeuvre mais, me semble-t-il, au hiatus existant entre les revenus escomptés et les salaires proposés, entre les qualifications acquises et celles requises, entre la nature des emplois auxquels les gens aspirent et celle des emplois offerts . Les articles de Xavier Godinot et d'Éric Keslassy que nous publions ce mois-ci m'offrent l'opportunité de revenir sur cette question, plus spécialement celle ...
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Recent decades, according to Jean-Paul Willaime, have been marked by a growth of evangelical brands of Christianity that lay great stress on the personal religious commitment of each individual. These new religious practices in the Protestant tradition have, among other developments, taken the form of an increase in Evangelical Protestantism and Pentecostalism.
This substantial growth, which is probably the main transnational religious movement of the 20th century, has affected Europe as well as Latin America, Africa and Asia. Jean-Paul Willaime offers some statistics that speak for themselves. These militant branches of Christianity now account for more than 20% of churchgoers in North America (i.e. 20 million Americans) 10% of the population of South America, 25% of South Koreans, not to mention Africa. In Europe, one third of French Protestants are Evangelical Christians and Pentecostalists, as are almost two-thirds of Belgian Protestants, and in Italy there are more Pentecostalists than members of the traditional Protestant church.
The religious identity of these pious and orthodox Christians is that of the "convert" who places the whole of his or her life under God's authority, stressing individual responsibility and divine intervention as immediate and concrete. Through their insistence on moral behaviour, these evangelical churches offer protection and care to vulnerable groups by giving them a new kind of support based on religion, although they also increasingly attract middle class members. They have an economic role (redistribution) and encourage upward social mobility through access to positions of responsibility within the community.
À l'avenir, la consommation par habitant de protéines animales augmentera très probablement partout dans le monde. Les enjeux socio-économiques se situent aussi bien dans le domaine alimentaire, dans le secteur de l'alimentation du bétail et de la production d'oléagineux et de protéagineux, sans oublier les problèmes d'environnement. C'est pourquoi l'Inra a engagé depuis 1997 une prospective sur le sujet, dont ce document constitue le rapport final. À partir d'une analyse approfondie de la ...
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Ce livre menant une réflexion anthropologique et psychanalytique sur la condition de vie des clochards s'organise en deux temps. Une première partie est consacrée au témoignage de l'auteur sur la vie des sans domicile fixe (SDF) qu'il a partagée à plusieurs reprises, afin de connaître leurs conditions de vie réelles, ainsi qu'au récit de son métier de psychanalyste au centre hospitalier universitaire de Nanterre pendant 15 ans. Mais l'importance fondamentale de ce livre réside sans ...
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Every month Futuribles International organizes a round table to discuss major issues facing the modern world with one or more experts well known for their work on futures studies.
The round table with Gilles Kepel, marks the publication of his book entitled Jihad, expansion et déclin de l'islamisme (Paris: Gallimard, 2000). In essence, he explains that in the 1970s, Islamic fundamentalism spread rapidly, but peaked in the 1980s, and for the last ten years it has been in decline.
Pour son huitième rapport moral sur l'argent dans le monde, l'Association d'économie financière a choisi de revenir sur quatre grands thèmes qui ont marqué le monde de la finance durant l'année 2000-2001. Sur fond de crise majeure des relations internationales et de remise en cause radicale du système financier mondial provoquée par les attentats du 11 septembre 2001, les auteurs se sont tout d'abord penchés sur les enjeux de l'économie mondialisée. Dans cette première ...
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Whereas religion was on the wane in the 1960s and 1970s, for the last 20 or 30 years there has been a great boom in spirituality of all kinds, though admittedly now more vague and individualized. But, according to Yves Lambert, beyond these two developments, secularization then renewal, we are witnessing decline, adaptation, attempts to conserve or to innovate which he tries to clarify here from the viewpoint of a sociologist of religions.
The decline is the product, he argues, of modernity and the values associated with it: the primacy of reason, individualism and diversity. But with "ultramodernity", these same values (reason, individualism, etc.) have become relative, and this has deprived religion of its most formidable rivals but also led the Church to abandon its pretensions to hegemony. Religions have themselves become relativized: they are losing their authority and are developing "belief without belonging", a more personal form of faith.
We are thus witnessing a process of adaptation. "The crisis of rationality encourages the search for ways of expressing affects and subjective experience of the divine [...]; we are moving towards à la carte Christianity" and we are seeing a revival of belief in many forms as well as a coming together of the human and the divine. The principle of authority, of transcendance, is therefore being replaced by a spiritual quest that is more spontaneous and individualized. People no longer expect religion to provide the truth, but rather they want it to offer something in this new quest for fulfilment. Is Christianity falling apart or emerging renewed? asks the author, who concludes that by giving up its totalitarian character, Christianity is acting consistently with its original values.
However, the author recognizes that this process also provokes conservative reactions. Nevertheless, when he looks at the available studies, he notes that the fundamentalists everywhere remain in the minority and the adaptation of Christianity to modernity reveals its amazing capacities for innovation. He highlights the consequent expansion of new forms of religion typical of "ultramodernity": individualization, "autospirituality", pragmatism, mobility...
These four developments are happening but not with equal probability, concludes Lambert, and the "proliferation of religions" could give rise to quite different social changes in different regions.
Menée pour l'un des principaux groupes français de presse magazine, cette étude a permis de donner une photographie économique et sociétale des Français face au temps de loisirs et aux activités de loisirs. Elle s'est appuyée sur l'exploitation de diverses sources statistiques publiques dont les enquêtes récurrentes « Emploi du temps » et « Budget des familles » de l'INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), et l'enquête « Pratiques culturelles » du ministère de la Culture, ainsi ...
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Over the last two decades there has been a marked rise in alternative belief systems. Guy Michelat analyses this phenomenon, drawing on studies that he has made in collaboration with Daniel Boy, and he offers several observations.
According to his findings, women are more likely to be believers than men; the younger the age-group, the greater the belief in the paranormal; and, by contrast with astrology, belief in the paranormal is not uncommon among those who have gone on to higher education.
Furthermore, while 81% of French people think that scientific advances lead to progress, 51% of them agree with the idea that science will never be able to explain everything. For many people, the "parasciences" will in the future be accepted as science. There is a desire, on the one hand, to legitimize the supernatural through science and, on the other, to cultivate the charm and mystery of alternative beliefs.
In addition, although belief in the paranormal has increased as Roman Catholicism has declined, the new beliefs are not opposed to religious beliefs, and are even more often found among those who believe in God and an afterlife.
Finally, in hoping for rational explanations, people resort to parascientific beliefs -in an odd twist of modernity and the spread of the ideology of progress. This magical knowledge, far removed from scientific rigour, soothes their fears about death and provides psychological and emotional support. People are most likely to resort to the paranormal where there is anomie, with the concomitant vulnerability, poor social and work relationships, fear of the future and loneliness.
Guy Michelat concludes by saying that, just when "off the peg" collective belief systems are declining and traditional points of reference are disappearing, people are acquiring greater freedom (and with it, greater anxiety), so that they seek personal solutions as a substitute for the major belief systems of the past.
C'est à un exercice d'intelligence collective qu'a invité cette première biennale afin de revivifier la culture prospective, en favorisant le dialogue entre tous les acteurs concernés : État, administrations, partenaires sociaux, collectivités territoriales, entreprises, chercheurs, universités... La démarche part des personnes (sondages sur la perception du futur, présentation de l'enquête Valeurs) pour ensuite élargir le débat au cours de tables rondes et d'ateliers sur des initiatives citoyennes permettant d'améliorer la vie quotidienne. Cette approche très ...
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Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.