Société, modes de vie
Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Le droit au travail, le droit au logement, à l'éducation, aux loisirs, à la famille passent par une sorte de droit " générique " qui commande tous les autres : le droit à la mobilité. Fort de cette conviction, l'Institut pour la ville en mouvement (IVM) a organisé le 21 novembre 2007, en partenariat avec La Poste, Randstad, et le Conseil national des missions locales, un séminaire sur le thème : " Pourquoi les entreprises doivent-elles s'intéresser aux mobilités quotidiennes de leurs ...
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Suite au rapport du groupe 1 du Grenelle de l'environnement et à la table ronde finale des 24 et 25 octobre 2007, le gouvernement français a fixé un certain nombre d'orientations pour une politique de transport " durable ", qu'il devrait concrétiser dans les mois à venir, avec notamment : l'élaboration d'ici fin 2008 d'un programme national des infrastructures de transport prévoyant le doublement des réseaux de lignes à grande vitesse ; un programme de 1 500 km ...
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Following on from the special issue of Futuribles devoted to "Dialogue or Clashes of Culture" published last July, we reprint here extracts from the third number of the journal Prospective, entitled "Relations between the West and the rest of the world". In it, the authors (Gaston Berger, Jean Darcet and Marcel Demonque) analyse the difficulties raised by the aid offered (sometimes imposed) by the West to so-called "underdeveloped countries" (for example, financial or technical assistance), and the actual or inherent risks to the populations of these countries who, viewing this aid as a sign of criticism of their cultures, began to oppose the West. The authors stress the importance of human values and beliefs in relations between civilizations, and conclude by discussing the distinction between civilizations and cultures: the former defined as relating to universal values, the latter to more personal - and therefore inevitably more varied - values.
L’économie de la fonctionnalité consiste à vendre l’usage d’un produit plutôt que le produit lui-même (location avec entretien, réparation et changement ou remise à niveau). Ceci permet à l’entreprise de bénéficier d’un revenu régulier, moins aléatoire pour la comptabilité que le nombre d’objets vendus et, côté environnement, d’améliorer la durabilité des biens et leur recyclabilité. Des entreprises comme Michelin ou Xerox ont été les pionnières en la matière, les systèmes d’auto-partage (car-sharing ...
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Internet se déploie au niveau planétaire. Une conjonction d’avancées technologiques rapides favorisera plus encore, dans les années à venir, une mutation forte de nos usages des moyens de communication, et probablement de nos comportements voire de nos valeurs. Chaque individu devra ainsi gérer une véritable « identité numérique », constituée des contributions (sur les blogs, par exemple) et des traces qu’il laisse. Du côté des perspectives technologiques (qui ne surdéterminent pas les usages), la poursuite de la tendance à l ...
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Les prix des produits agricoles s’envolent au niveau mondial. La demande s’accroît plus vite que l’offre et le phénomène devrait s’accentuer avec la croissance attendue de la population mondiale, le développement de nouveaux modèles d’alimentation, celui des usages non alimentaires des produits agricoles (biocarburants, notamment), la diminution de la superficie et de la qualité des terres arables ainsi que des ressources en eau. Les échanges agricoles au niveau mondial sont en expansion et restent, malgré ...
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François de Jouvenel introduit la table ronde en présentant Michèle Debonneuil, qui a travaillé à l’INSEE, l’OCDE, au Plan, à l’inspection générale des Finances, et qui est actuellement membre du CAE (Conseil d’analyse économique), conseillère auprès de Jean-Louis Borloo, et participe aux travaux de la commission Attali. Elle a été l’inspiratrice du plan de développement des services à la personne. L’intervenante prend ensuite la parole pour développer les idées contenues dans son livre L ...
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Entre 1964 et 2004, le pourcentage de Français partant en vacances (c'est-à-dire passant plus de quatre nuits hors de leur domicile dans le cadre d'un séjour d'agrément) est passé de 43 % à 65 %. Cependant, ce taux progresse lentement depuis une dizaine d'années ce qui, selon l'INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), indique une stabilisation, toutes générations confondues, autour de 65 %. Désormais, les pratiques de vacances des Français dépendent principalement de leur ...
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La Bibliographie prospective du mois de novembre 2007 consacre son Focus à l’ouvrage de Pierre Feuillet : La nourriture des Français. De la maîtrise du feu…aux années 2030. L’auteur, directeur de recherche à l’INRA (Institut national de la recherche agronomique), retrace l’histoire de l’alimentation puis livre cinq scénarios sur l’alimentation en France à l’horizon 2030. Vous trouverez par ailleurs et comme chaque mois une sélection de comptes rendus de livres, études et rapports ...
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L'Urban Land Institute vient de publier une étude pour évaluer l'impact de l'urbanisme sur la mobilité automobile aux États-Unis, pays où le transport représente un tiers des émissions de gaz à effet de serre et qui est le plus grand émetteur au monde.
En guise d’introduction, Robert Rochefort a rappelé l’originalité de l’institution dont il est le directeur, le CREDOC. Ce centre, créé il y a une soixantaine d’années, a toujours eu comme objectif d’étudier les modes de vie de la population française, sujet nouveau à l’époque, tandis que l’INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), chargé des « chiffres », était l’héritier des anciens services nationaux des statistiques. Le CREDOC, rattaché au ministère ...
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Après une forte croissance au cours des décennies précédentes, le volume de la circulation des voitures particulières en France stagne depuis 2001 et a légèrement baissé en 2005 et en 2006 (tableau 1 ci-dessous). Accident conjoncturel ou évolution durable ? À l'occasion des débats du " Grenelle de l'environnement ", sur les enjeux de la limitation des gaz à effet de serre dans le secteur des transports, certains experts parlent d'une tendance de fond au recul de l'usage de ...
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Le thème de l’environnement a, du moins en apparence, le vent en poupe : pas un seul parti, de l’extrême droite à l’extrême gauche, qui ne lui fasse une place dans son programme, pas un journal télévisé sans au moins une rubrique consacrée au réchauffement ou à la pollution… Les publicités y font sans cesse allusion et l’utilisent comment un argument de vente (y compris des groupes pas vraiment réputés pour leur « vertitude » comme Total), les documentaires ...
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Alioune Sall, Director of the African Futures Institute, looks at the key question of this special issue - the future of relations between civilizations at global level - from the African angle, a view too often forgotten in this debate.
In this article, he sets out the major challenges that Africa faces (coping with modernity, bloody conflicts, problems of governance, etc.) and emphasizes how far the West (in particular the former colonial powers) is responsible for the current difficulties of the continent. Nevertheless, contrary to the view that certain commentators sometimes express, he thinks that Africa has a future and one that does not involve a clash of civilizations, but rather a dialogue which will give rise to a new sort of modernity.
Invoking various African thinkers, Alioune Sall offers three main arguments in favour of this dialogue of cultures: pluralism and respect for diversity, a new kind of citizenship that is not based on being native-born, and the emergence of what he calls "afropolitanity" (in a sense marking a post-colonial phase of modernity in Africa). He does not underestimate the scale of the challenges (population growth, economic problems, governance, etc.), but bases his hopes on the coming together of a vision of values and a certain degree of political intervention that makes it possible to envisage Africa's future with optimism, against the background of a genuine dialogue with other cultures, and especially with the West.
This article argues that we need to develop foresight studies with a strong geopolitical element, although it also stresses the need, as a preliminary, to meet the challenge of finding a way of capturing the dynamics of the contemporary world situation which is as relevant as possible - a world that clearly no longer resembles the world of the past, heavily dominated as it was by the interaction of nation-states and above all by the Cold War with its head-on confrontation of two opposing blocs operating according to a common logic.
In the absence of an apposite system of representation, the approach offered by Samuel Huntington in his book on The Clash of Civilizations met with great success. The essence of Huntington's thesis is that the civilization paradigm is the best means of analysing, perhaps of anticipating, changes in international relations. The article sets out the main points of Huntington's thesis and then examines what led up to it and, in particular, what its basis and limitations are.
Nevertheless, Hugues de Jouvenel recognizes the need to acquire new tools for deciphering a world where there is a vast increase in global interdependency as well as in tensions and conflicts that should not be viewed solely in terms of differences in culture or civilization, even if these factors undoubtedly play a growing role.
Hugues de Jouvenel concludes by raising the issue of the sense of identity and of belonging to communities of more or less shared values and interests which operate according to models that are sometimes quite unlike those of the past when geopolitics was considered to be the exclusive domain of states and the relationships they forged with one another. He therefore argues that we should thoroughly overhaul our ways of looking at the world which will undoubtedly determine, as always, the way we perceive possible futures.
This is an extract from the famous article by Fernand Braudel, "The History of Civilizations: the Past explains the Present", originally published in 1959 in the Encyclopédie française and reprinted in Les Ambitions de l'histoire (Paris: éd. de Fallois, 1997). This text seemed to us to offer many insights into the endurance of civilizations, their great diversity and ability to survive in spite of the spread, in particular via technology, of the Western model of development. In addition, Braudel makes some useful remarks about the difference between civilizations and cultures.
Georges Corm analyses, in this op-ed piece, what he calls "the binary vision" of the world in which East and West are opposed. He starts by arguing that the end of the Cold War has not brought an end to the hostility between different blocs that dominated the world between 1945 and 1990. In his view we now have two worlds - one pro-Western and favourable to Israel, the Euro-Atlantic bloc, the other more pro-Arab, the "Mediterranean/Asian" bloc - separated by a fracture line that gives rise to both cold (the Iranian nuclear issue) and hot wars (such as the Western interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan).
He argues that this new confrontation between "civilizations" arises from five main factors: the "war on terror" which he tries to analyse with a certain critical distance, especially with regard to the United States; a certain tendency to wish to dominate the rest of the world on the part of the United States that is not thwarted by its (somewhat naïve) European allies; a Mediterranean/Asian world whose capacity for harm tends to be overestimated, in particular because as a bloc it is far from being unified; the Israeli-Palestinian situation, which in practice now seems very hard to resolve (the creation of a Palestinian state appears impossible); lastly, the designation of Iran as a potential source of regional conflagration while at the same time the United States has deliberately let slip the opportunity to normalize relations with Iran.
With this view as his starting-point, Georges Corm sketches several possible scenarios for future geopolitical change; in general these are quite pessimistic, such as the hypothesis of all-out war between the Euro-Atlantic bloc and a coalition led by Iran with the more or less overt support of Russia and China. In order to avoid such a prospect, it is essential, Georges Corm argues, to dismantle the policy of forming blocs which threatens to reproduce the model of the two world wars; this requires, in particular, the rules of international law to be applied without exception as the only means of calming "inflamed imaginations".
For this special issue on the future of relations between cultures, François Zabbal focuses on the relationship between the Arab/Muslim world and the West.
He starts by tracing how anti-Western sentiments grew up in the Arab world, first during the Cold War and the period of East/West tensions, then in the specific context of the aftermath of September 11th 2001. In particular, he shows that the roots of Arab hostility to the West (above all the United States) is not a recent phenomenon, and while it is true that such feelings have been strengthened in response to the way that the Islamic world is represented by the West, they also arise from the desire on the part of certain Arab communities to forge (or revive) some kind of pan-Arab bond.
However, according to François Zabbal, the pan-Arab movement came to nothing. Islamic sentiment is developing more as a statement of identity vis-à-vis the West, against a background of creating national or regional solidarities. It is nonetheless the case that a globalized Islam, sustained by modern means of communication and the Muslim diasporas living in Western receiving countries, may well continue to attract the poorest sections of the Muslim world, for better or worse. Let's hope, with François Zabbal, that the "wall of mutual misunderstanding" between Islam and the West is simply a passing tense moment, the prelude to a debate which may well be heated but which is also essential about the place and the shape of Islam in the West.
Bruno Étienne argues cogently in this article that to think in terms of a clash of civilizations - Islam versus the West - is to make a serious error of judgement by ignoring the many non-religious factors that affect the relations between the Middle East and the West. In order to deal with this misunderstanding, he starts by setting out a clear definition of what he means by religion. He goes on to point out that politics and religion are often in competition, including in the Muslim world, and usually politics has the final say as to which strategy is adopted in international relations.
Bruno Étienne then ponders what kind of international system will emerge now that there is no longer a two-way split: will there be one Great Power or many? He notes that we are now faced with a "huge ideological shambles" and it would be too simplistic to describe it merely in religious terms when in fact the issues are clearly geostrategic: Europe and the United States have always wanted to (re)draw the map of the Middle East to suit their own interests. He also raises the current regional issues (e.g. the problem of Israel and Palestine, the Kurdish question, Iraq, water resources and oil reserves) and their possible impact on relations between the West and the Middle East.
Finally, Bruno Étienne focuses on the three countries competing for leadership in the Middle East: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, recalling along the way that "it is ignorance of the Other [that feeds] most of the fantasies, the prejudices and therefore the fears" .
The long, slow pace of change in the West, via conflicts, revolutions and reforms, has no parallel in Chinese history. As Chen Yan reminds us here, in the last 150 years China's route to modernity or modernization has been via a series of blunders in response to vividly experienced contacts with the West. When we look at the present, we also need to remember that China is still searching for ways of adjusting to the modern world and could change direction again.
After describing the process of Westernization as it has occurred in China, Chen Yan presents the next phase, in which the Chinese combine tradition, anti-traditionalism and new currents of thought ("New Left", "New Confucianism", commercial liberalism) in order to develop their own version of modernity. So far, Chinese-style modernization has not reached a successful conclusion, but the way in which the Chinese have approached the problem and are moving ahead with it is a very interesting example of cultural interaction.
Is it still possible to undertake foresight studies in the contemporary world, assessing its potential issues, challenges and developments? With the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001 - enormous changes that nobody really foresaw - the question is worth asking.
Frédéric Charillon argues that it is not only possible but indeed necessary to give ourselves the means of trying to predict the future of international relations. Here he offers some tools for deciphering the situation of a sociological nature, criticizing the theory of the clash of civilizations as too simplistic. He first sets out the main issues that need to be considered when analysing tomorrow's world and the cleavages within it that they are likely to generate; he goes on to make a series of observations about the current international situation, highlighting the confusion of models, the ever more frequent abrupt changes, and increasing complexity of the world and how it is represented...
Hence the three main questions about the future of the world analysed by Frédéric Charillon: is there still some system for looking at the future and, if so, what is it? How do we set about understanding international situations if they cannot be explained? Is making culture the focus of the analysis really the best way of capturing the dynamics of the modern world?
Hence, too, the three sociological questions on which he ends: is it better to simplify the reality in order to be able to act or to attempt to understand the complexities before doing anything? Is it better - in both analysis and action - to go for sudden change or for continuity? Is it better to emphasize explanations in terms of the individual or the group?
Jean-François Mayer describes here the main religious trends and the prospects for the future linked to them, in particular offering several scenarios for what may occur between now and 2037. First he looks at the main religions against the background of globalization, then he shows how much the situation has changed with regard to the ability to multiply and spread religious messages (thanks in particular to the new communications technologies), and how far religions - which for a while had appeared to be in decline - are now enjoying a revival. Islam, Hinduism, Evangelical Christianity, etc.: whether or not they are political, these religious movements are very much alive and continue to attract new members, but they are transforming themselves and are continuing to evolve under the growing influence of individualization, which is affecting or will eventually affect the whole world.
The author also examines who the new religious activists are likely to be in the coming decades, stressing the probable emergence of new currents within all the existing religions (Judaism, Islam, Hinduism, etc.) though they will lack real political clout at the global level. He wonders about the capacity of the religiously minded to bring greater unity to culturally homogeneous regions (with the inherent risk that this might lead to a clash of civilizations), and suggests that only Islam could hope to do so but that the obstacles connected with national realities make such a scenario highly unlikely.
All in all, according to Jean-François Mayer, religious belief will remain strong, probably accompanied by an acceptance of greater variety on the part of those actively involved. Competition is likely to continue and religious movements will go on diversifying, but without any single religion dominating the others.
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.