Société, modes de vie
Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)
Dans ce rapport, l’ASEF s’intéresse aux pandémies et aux urgences de santé publique que l’Asie et l’Europe pourraient rencontrer dans le futur. Cette étude a été réalisée au lendemain de la pandémie du H1N1 de 2009. Les experts se sont aperçus, à cette occasion, que les dépenses publiques de santé pouvaient se révéler inutiles si elles ne s’inscrivaient pas dans une stratégie globale. Un panel d’experts a tenté de répondre à différentes questions : Quelles ...
(300 more words)
Dans ce rapport, l’Institut McKinsey s’intéresse aux consommateurs chinois en 2020. Il décrit les mutations sociodémographiques et comportementales des consommateurs afin que les entreprises installées (ou désireuses de s’installer) en Chine aient conscience des bouleversements qui touchent la société chinoise. Entre 2000 et 2010, la taille de l’économie chinoise a triplé. L’investissement a été le moteur principal de cette croissance, alors que la consommation intérieure a décliné : elle est passée de 46 % du PIB (produit ...
(544 more words)
Les systèmes de santé tendent à évoluer aussi bien en Europe que dans le reste du monde, à la fois sous l’effet des progrès de la médecine, de la pharmacie et des équipements de soin, mais aussi par l’évolution des patients eux-mêmes. Dans des pays comme le Royaume-Uni, les États-Unis, la France ou le Canada, l’implication des patients dans leur propre traitement est de plus en plus perçue comme un vecteur important de l’amélioration du système ...
(469 more words)
A little more than 13 years ago in September 1999 (issue no. 245), Olivier Donnat outlined the development of the cultural practices of the French over the period 1973-1997 in these columns, highlighting the increasing part played by the audio-visual media in those practices. A decade and one further survey later, in a context in which a veritable digital revolution has taken place, how do things stand with these practices now and what are the major trends at work in this area in France?
Drawing on the five waves of investigation of the cultural practices of the French carried out between 1973 and 2008, Olivier Donnat begins by presenting four major trends: the increase in audio-visual consumption; the fall-off in the reading of printed media; confirmation of the propensity of the French to frequent cultural facilities outside their own homes; and the increased participation in amateur cultural practices. He then shows that these developments occurred in two phases, linked to technological innovation (the rise of television and audio-visual equipment, the spread of the Internet and the new communications technologies), and are characterized by the increasing part played by screen culture rather than the previously dominant print culture. Detailing this movement towards the screen and its consequences for cultural practices (showing, among other things, that the lesser success of the book does not mean a fall-off in reading practices), Donnat presents the changes at work and their principal drivers (technologies and age-related dynamics – particularly generational effects). He concludes by stressing the ambivalence that remains regarding the effects of the spread of screen culture on the democratization and mediation of culture.
As the world’s leading tourist destination, France possesses very numerous assets in terms of natural beauty, history and heritage etc. that are greatly appreciated by many holidaymakers during this holiday period. However, of all the tourists who visit France each year what proportion actually visits sites or events of a cultural nature? What is France’s real place in the more targeted sector of cultural tourism?
In this article Évelyne Lehalle offers a general survey of cultural tourism in France. After reviewing the range of meaning of the concept, she reviews the main factors contributing to the country’s attractiveness in this regard. She stresses France’s slight loss of momentum in cultural tourism, linked to an ageing public, increased competition and a lack of dialogue between the players in the two sectors involved (tourism and culture). She also highlights the unpredictable character of the competition coming from emerging countries, the public’s expectations both today and (most importantly) tomorrow, and offers some general guidelines, inspired by “Creative Cities”, that may improve the offer of French cultural tourism, so as to respond to the changes that are currently taking place.
Depuis le milieu des années 2000, les internautes peuvent faire appel à des particuliers pour financer des prêts à la consommation, des projets artistiques ou des créations d’entreprise. Ces pratiques de crowdfunding se développent rapidement, car elles répondent à la fois à des attentes des emprunteurs et des prêteurs. Le crowdfunding (par analogie avec le crowdsourcing) ou financement communautaire, est une pratique permettant de financer des projets grâce au cumul de contributions de particuliers. Il est souvent utilisé lorsque ...
(1039 more words)
Une école maternelle suédoise, ouverte en mai 2010, a mis une place une pédagogie d’indifférenciation des sexes pour lutter contre les stéréotypes dans l’éducation. D’autres pays comme la France semblent intéressés par ces dispositifs, mais de nombreuses interrogations demeurent quant à leurs applications pratiques. En 2010, la première école « transgenre » a vu le jour en Suède. Il s’agit d’une école maternelle dont le but est de reléguer les différences de sexe au second plan, en ...
(839 more words)
Migration issues regularly make the headlines on the continent of Europe – and in France, in particular, as can be seen from the 2012 election campaign – and they give rise to lively debate. It is the same in the UK and the USA, as Michèle Tribalat shows here in her comparative analysis of two works published in 2011: Balarajan, Cameron and Goldin’s Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will Define our Future and Scheffer’s Immigrant Nations. Michèle Tribalat stresses, for example, the extent to which the approach to the migration issue can vary, not only in its relation to time and history, but also in the economic analysis of the impact of migration on host societies and the attention paid (or not paid) to the identity-related and cultural aspects surrounding the arrival of foreign communities in a society.
Religious fundamentalism is not a new concept – far from it – and most of the world’s great religions are affected by it to a greater or lesser extent. However, among those fundamentalisms, Islamism has a special place, given the means it uses to implant itself in Muslim communities, particularly in Europe.
As Jean-François Drevet stresses here, the implantation of Islamism as a political tendency is perceptible in all European countries and is very often characterized by a large-scale propaganda effort (largely financed by the Gulf monarchies) among Muslims living on European soil, through a quasi-systematic exploitation for political ends of the right to religious freedom and a highly inadequate capacity on the part of Muslims to protect themselves from extremist preaching. It does, however, seem possible to erect a barrier against it through anti-racist and human-rights legislation which exists in many European states, if not indeed across the entire continent. If we wish to avoid the entire Muslim community – only a tiny minority of which is genuinely tempted by radical Islamism – being ostracized in Europe, and given that there is no real prospect of Islam undergoing modernization in the medium term, it is becoming urgently necessary, argues Jean-François Drevet, to have recourse to this body of law to block the development of radical Islam.
Futuribles here continues the series of articles begun by Gilles Le Blanc in the May 2012 issue aimed at reflecting the “Territories 2040” foresight exercise launched by DATAR in France in 2009 and showing the lessons that can be drawn from it. This second contribution presents the most noteworthy points from the group foresight work done on intermediate cities and their local spaces.
After reminding us how to grasp the spatial system of so-called “intermediate” cities conceptually, Francis Aubert et al. bring out the main characteristics of these spatial systems at the sociological, economic and political levels. They then present the hypotheses and main determinants which, at these three levels, underpin the scenarios they elaborated with respect to the future of the intermediate cities in the years to 2040. After a more precise description of these four alternative scenarios (“Uncertain Communities”, “Green Laboratories”, “Competing Specialisms” and “Interconnected Satellites”), the authors show what their analysis of the spatial systems of intermediate cities contributes to the general “Territories 2040” foresight exercise from the angle, on the one hand, of the “empowerment of all territories” and, on the other, of the coordination between territories and actors.
Whereas, in France, upward social mobility seems to have come to a standstill and it is less and less clear how young people are going to find jobs at a level equal or superior to that of their parents, the initiative presented here by Marthe de La Taille-Rivero provides food for thought. “Passerelles numériques”, an organization founded in 2006, has set up an IT-careers training centre in Phnom Penh especially for the most deprived young Cambodians. It is a centre that trains its students in direct association with that city’s IT companies, thus meeting local economic needs and ensuring that its trainees find jobs at the end of their courses.
In this article Marthe de La Taille-Rivero describes the origins of this project and the various actors who have contributed to its success (from both the voluntary and the business sectors). She outlines in detail how these “Gateways to the Future” operate and the principles that play a part in making them effective (as attested by the development of similar training centres in other South-East Asian countries). Lastly, she describes the economic model Passerelles numériques is striving to put in place to safeguard its funding and ensure that it continues to operate in the longer term.
By the time this issue of Futuribles comes out, the French presidential election campaign will be in its final stages – the second round of the ballot takes place on 6 May – and a second campaign for the June legislative elections will be about to follow. It is highly unlikely that the tone of this second campaign will differ substantially from the first and provide French electors with an objective view of the opportunities and constraints that ensue from France’s membership of the European Union since, as Jean-François Drevet laments here, all parties, both of right and left, in government or on the political fringes, speak in thoroughly outdated terms in many areas relating to Community policies.
This is no doubt the result of pressure from public opinion, but that in itself is evidence that a certain kind of populism prevails, in which often ill-informed electors are told only what they want to hear. Now, as this column reminds us, France’s scope for manœuvre in the fields most concerned (globalization, debt crisis, migratory flows) is very restricted and it would be lying to the citizenry to have them believe that solutions will come from unilateral action by France or through disengagement from international institutions. Quite the contrary, solutions are to be found in intensified co-operation, particularly at the European level.
This novel document, published in an election period that is by its very nature highly centred on the moment, contains a series of seven contributions taken from a collective exercise carried out within the Futuribles editorial board.
In order to remove themselves from immediately topical questions, with the 2012 presidential election in the forefront of current concerns, the members of that editorial board were invited to look five years into the future, to the time around the presidential election of 2017. The aim was to compile a set of observations and projections, and also of expectations for 2012, by drawing on some of the prominent writers on that pluralistic board and the positions and opinions existing within it.
The results are visible here in the diversity of angles and styles. The tone and theme were left to the individual writers: seven visions of the future resulted – each to varying degrees amused, disenchanted or troubled. The time-horizon was sufficiently distant to free the mind, yet sufficiently close to permit reflection on the forms of inertia or change (desirable or to be feared) that may characterize the next five years.
Such an exercise is not easy. It can quickly go out of date (as can be seen from certain underlying decisions in drafts that depend on the precise moment of their composition) and may also veer off into fantasy. And yet foresight has always to blend rigour and imagination. These little exercises offer an interpretation, from a particular angle, of the issues of the day.
Le marché immobilier américain a été l’un des secteurs les plus durement touchés par la crise . Les ventes de biens restent moroses, et les ménages américains modifieraient progressivement leurs attentes vis-à-vis de leur logement. Le logement idéal serait plus petit et plus proche des centre-villes : à l’opposé, donc, du modèle traditionnel des suburbs.
Tuberculose, coqueluche, gale, rougeole… autant de maladies que l’on croyait disparues mais qui refont leur apparition. Ainsi, depuis 2008, plus de 22 000 cas de rougeole ont été déclarés en France, une nette augmentation en comparaison des années précédentes. La diffusion de cette maladie très contagieuse soulève un certain nombre de questions quant à son origine mais aussi à ses conséquences.
L’Agence bio vient de publier la neuvième vague de son baromètre sur l’agriculture biologique. Il révèle que le marché des produits issus de l’agriculture biologique a été multiplié par quatre en 10 ans. Mais cette croissance est surtout portée par un nombre limité de gros consommateurs, les consommateurs plus ponctuels paraissant plus réticents à accroître leurs achats de ces produits qu’ils jugent encore trop chers.
Economic crisis, global warming, eco-systems under threat, depleted public finances – the current situation, in Europe in particular, is scarcely favourable to needless expenditure and unrestrained consumption. It is, in fact, gradually becoming accepted that the time has perhaps come substantially to revise our modes of life, so as to consume more intelligently in a world whose limited resources have to be divided between a growing number of individuals. This, writes Jean Haëntjens, may involve recourse to the concept of frugality (producing more satisfaction with fewer resources), a concept that is not new, as is attested by the writings of Epicurus, but which, applied on the urban scale, offers genuine possibilities for establishing new developmental models.
Haëntjens presents the main characteristics of this concept of frugality here. He outlines the main strategies implemented by the pioneering cities in this area. He described what he terms the “palette of frugal options”, namely, the lines of possible action to achieve this end through urban policies. Lastly, he stresses how “frugal cities” might inspire national policies in terms of encouraging new lifestyles – and new styles of urbanism.
Since the creation of the European Community in 1957, the construction of Europe has largely been down to Franco-German cooperation and the capacity of those two countries to overcome their differences to advance the economic and political integration of the continent. However, Jean-François Drevet tells us, this “exemplary cooperation” seems to be running up against its limits in the current context of crisis and excessive indebtedness of the states of Europe. For it is clear that Germany, which made sacrifices to overcome the cost of reunification in the 1990s, intends that today’s debt-distressed European states will do the same, so as not to drag down the entire European edifice with them in their (potential) fall. France, not greatly attracted by the budgetary conception its Rhenish neighbour has of the Union, would prefer the option of a European “economic governance”, allowing considerable scope for the inter-governmental element. However, its economic and budgetary situation, which is far worse than that of Germany, hardly puts it in a position of strength. It is hence a sound bet, concludes Drevet, that the Union will only be able to get out of the economic and political impasse in which it finds itself through an evolution towards federalism inspired by the Rhenish model.
Starting out from reality and then projecting itself into futuristic universes, science fiction, in both literary and cinematic form, allows us to dream and to have fantasies or nightmares about what the future holds in store. In many works of science fiction, technologies and the perspectives for their application play a key role. The nanotechnologies, with miniaturization playing its part here, offer even greater possibilities for writers and directors to develop their visions of the future. At the same time, scientist, corporations, governments and military institutions are investing time, energy and substantial amounts of money in these nanotechnologies. They themselves are constructing visions of what they may enable us to do in the future, and trying to bring these to fruition.
How are these two types of representation related? This is the issue Bernard Kahane ponders in this article. Drawing on various emblematic novels and films, he begins by showing how science fiction depicts nanotechnologies, before outlining the scientific and technical logics that underlie them. Kahane then turns more precisely to the impact they might have in the field of security and defence (future conflicts, armaments, combatants etc.). Lastly, he studies the specific features of the future visions of, on the one hand, science fiction writers and filmmakers and, on the other, of the economic and social actors involved in the emergence of the nanotechnologies, together with their influence on each other. Unlike the writers, who operate merely at the level of narration, those engaged in nanotechnology research and production are, he argues, “narr-actors” who manipulate, combine and intermingle narration and action in pursuit of their ends.
The vulnerability of developed societies is not a new notion and has been very clearly set out by, among others, Ulrich Beck. It does, however, acquire new meaning with the increasing extension and interconnection of real and virtual networks. For example, electrical and digital networks play a part today in the operation of almost all other critical infrastructures and systems. This underlines their importance and the issue that protecting them represents in most countries. As Pierre Bonnaure shows here, the Internet is subject to frequent attacks and cyberthreats are increasing, emanating as they do from “hackers” with very varied objectives, whose actions may have major consequences.
Outlining the risks of a cyberwar, Bonnaure shows the strategic character of the battle against cyberthreats and the way people are beginning to face up to them in most of the countries affected by the phenomenon. It is highly improbable that any country will be able to forearm itself totally against cyberthreats and the system risks that ensue from them, but the ability to identify them and fight them when they do become reality is, most certainly, a significant strategic asset.
Mettant en perspective des données insolites, Jean Viard montre combien, dans son "Nouveau portrait de la France. La société des modes de vie" (La Tour d’Aigues : éd. de l’Aube [coll. L’Urgence de comprendre], 2012), le visage de la France a changé en un siècle. Les vies s’allongent et la proportion de temps travaillé diminue, laissant la part belle au temps privé et aux loisirs, qui façonnent les normes et les valeurs. Ces nouveaux modes de vie ...
(16 more words)
La connaissance de la mobilité des personnes est riche d’enseignements sur les modes de vie, d’habitat, d’activité, de consommation… Elle est à la fois la cause et la conséquence de l’organisation des territoires en termes de localisation des personnes et des activités, et des flux de trafic qui en résultent. L’enquête nationale transports et déplacements, menée en 2007-2008 auprès de 20 200 ménages résidant sur l’ensemble du territoire français, permet de comprendre les évolutions ...
(49 more words)
La tendance n’est pas nouvelle, mais elle se confirme : depuis 30 ans, la proportion de Français vivant seuls dans leur logement a été multipliée par deux. Ce phénomène s’explique à la fois par des évolutions démographiques et sociales qui se sont accentuées depuis une dizaine d’années. Peut-il se poursuivre ? À quel rythme ? Avec quelles conséquences notamment sur la demande de logements, mais aussi sur celle de produits et services adaptés à ces personnes seules ?
Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.