Société, modes de vie

Cette page regroupe l'ensemble des publications de Futuribles sur cette thématique (Vigie, revue, bibliographie, études, etc.)

Analyse prospective

Société, modes de vie

Comprendre la mobilité des Français

La connaissance de la mobilité des personnes est riche d’enseignements sur les modes de vie, d’habitat, d’activité, de consommation… Elle est à la fois la cause et la conséquence de l’organisation des territoires en termes de localisation des personnes et des activités, et des flux de trafic qui en résultent. L’enquête nationale transports et déplacements, menée en 2007-2008 auprès de 20 200 ménages résidant sur l’ensemble du territoire français, permet de comprendre les évolutions ...

(49 more words)

Note de veille

Population - Société, modes de vie

Les Français vivent de plus en plus souvent seuls

La tendance n’est pas nouvelle, mais elle se confirme : depuis 30 ans, la proportion de Français vivant seuls dans leur logement a été multipliée par deux. Ce phénomène s’explique à la fois par des évolutions démographiques et sociales qui se sont accentuées depuis une dizaine d’années. Peut-il se poursuivre ? À quel rythme ? Avec quelles conséquences notamment sur la demande de logements, mais aussi sur celle de produits et services adaptés à ces personnes seules ?

Bibliography

Société, modes de vie

Modes de vie et empreinte carbone

Peu de prospectives sont directement consacrées aux modes de vie et à leurs transformations. On préfère souvent s’intéresser à des sujets considérés comme plus nobles et plus légitimes : climat, énergie, démographie, technologie, croissance économique, aménagement du territoire, ville, géopolitique... Analyser les évolutions des modes de vie est certes ardu, tant cette notion est large, englobante et constituée de phénomènes multiples. Mais, par-delà ces difficultés méthodologiques, le peu de considération porté à cet objet résulte d’une certaine paresse intellectuelle ...

(1068 more words)

Analyse prospective

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Les applications mobiles au service de la télémédecine

Le potentiel de la télémédecine suscite depuis quelques années de nombreux espoirs et tout autant de promesses. En effet, le vieillissement de la population ainsi que les progrès médicaux entraînent des besoins toujours plus importants en soins de santé, mais la capacité des ménages et de la Sécurité sociale à les couvrir n’est pas assurée. La télémédecine pourrait permettre de limiter le coût des soins, en remplaçant par exemple la consultation par une téléconsultation (en visioconférence), en favorisant la ...

(160 more words)

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Les achats groupés sont-ils l’avenir du commerce en ligne ?

Le e-commerce se démocratise rapidement en France et dans de nombreux pays. Le commerce en ligne est notamment stimulé par de nouveaux services, tels que les plates-formes d’achats groupés, qui permettent aux internautes de bénéficier de réductions importantes sur certains biens et services. Mais le modèle économique des entreprises d’achats groupés est encore précaire.

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Les besoins des Français en matière d’information sur les risques chimiques, largement insatisfaits aujourd’hui, vont devenir de plus en plus pressants

Moins souvent évoqué que le risque nucléaire, le risque chimique est fortement redouté par les Français. Il se présente notamment sous deux formes : le risque impliqué dans la consommation de produits chimiques et le risque industriel lié aux installations chimiques et aux déchets qu’elles produisent. Les inquiétudes sont fortes sur ces deux aspects du risque chimique, et en particulier en ce qui concerne le risque de nature industriel : la catastrophe d’AZF, entre autres, semble avoir durablement marqué les ...

(47 more words)

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

An Experience of Science-Society Interaction: Reinforcing Research by Drawing on Lay Knowledge, Complexity and Commitment to the Long Haul

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been an object of major controversy. For a large section of French public opinion, they have become the focal point of opposition to the manipulation of living material and of the rejection of a certain agricultural model. Yet, from the research standpoint, GMOs can represent one effective means of gaining knowledge of animal or plant life and the study of its interactions with the environment. In this field, as with many technological innovations, the emergence of controversies between science and society highlights the importance of involving the greatest possible number of citizens in decisions and the need to improve the participatory processes by which they can contribute to them. The experiment in which Anne Moneyron, Olivier Lemaire and Jean E. Masson were involved, as part of the process of setting up a GM grapevine rootstock field trial, attests to the rich results that may emerge from the participative construction of a project of this kind.

In order to carry out this trial while remaining responsive to the reactions of society, the general management of INRA, the French National Institute for Agricultural Research, set up a Local Monitoring Committee following the recommendations of an interactive technological assessment. This Monitoring Committee involved most of the stakeholders (actors from the world of vine growing and the agricultural trade unions, conservation and consumer organizations, teachers, state representatives in the fields of agricultural development and food safety, and independent vine growers) who, over eight years of work and in a context where the technology was rejected to the maximum degree because of what it symbolized, collectively designed their own format of science-society debate. The research/action programme that has ensued has enabled the initial project to be re-thought and more research to be produced, because it has been based on a more complex set of questions that accords a legitimate role to all the actors. Proof if it were needed that a science-society dialogue is possible, even on such a controversial subject as GMOs.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

GMOs: the Transatlantic Divorce – Perception and Use of GMOs in Europe and the USA

As can be seen in most of the articles in this special issue of Futuribles on genetically modified organisms (GMOs), there is a marked difference in approach between Europe and the USA with regard to GMOs. What does this difference consist in? What is its origin? Is it set to last? In this article, Bernard Chevassus-au-Louis examines the ins and outs of this “transatlantic divorce”.

He outlines various factors, for example, that may explain the difference in the perception and use of GM plants between the American continent and Europe, focusing mainly on the contrast between the USA and France. He begins by analysing attitudes towards the highly intensive agricultural model that has developed in the two countries since the war, as well as towards the companies involved in supplying seed. He then describes the modes of intellectual protection of plant material established in the 20th century, stressing particularly the divergence between the use and non-use of patents. Lastly, drawing on a distinction between expert and lay assessments of risk, he studies the attitude of citizens towards such risk analyses. Here again, he demonstrates a European specificity, linked, among other things, to the many health scares that studded the latter years of the 20th century and effectively led to the citizenry becoming sceptical of expert assessments. Bernard Chevassus-au-Louis concludes by musing on how these divergences may develop and on the appropriateness of continuing to apply health and environmental risk assessments only to GMOs.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Société, modes de vie

Simon de Cyrène, Hope and Reality: Innovation for the Disabled

As part of the “Actors’ Words” series of articles launched by Futuribles in 2012, Marthe de La Taille-Rivero offers a stimulating account of a social-innovation venture launched in the mid-2000s by a highly motivated entrepreneur: the building of communal housing for people disabled as a result of head injury. She describes the career-path of Laurent de Cherisey, prime mover both in this particular project and in cocreating the association Simon de Cyrène (Simon of Cyrene) that carried it out, as well as the many formalities that had to be gone through to see it realized – including, in the end, a little “helping hand” from fate in the form of the success of the film Intouchables (Untouchables), which handed over part of its takings to the association. By giving back to these disabled people the opportunity of finding a social life within a town – in contact with other individuals, both disabled and able-bodied, who share housing with them – the association supports them towards potential reintegration, responds to their families’ concerns and, through its activity, promotes other similar initiatives elsewhere in France.

Revue

Entreprises, travail - Institutions - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

“Responsible” Innovation and Sustainable Development: Producing the Legitimacy of GMOs and their World

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are at the heart of important controversies in the scientific world. But the stakes go far beyond that, as is demonstrated here by Pierre-Benoit Joly. Questions of a more political nature arise, such as what vision of the world one wishes to see prevail in the future, both in the agricultural realm and in the much wider matter of the sustainable development of the planet.

Recalling, first, how regimes of innovation in the plant world have evolved over time, Joly stresses that we have moved from traditional skills and practices to an initial regime of innovation based on state agronomists and seed companies, which has itself evolved towards a “molecular, private, globalized” regime of innovation heavily encouraged by the granting, in the 1980s, of permission to patent living organisms. This has led to agricultural markets becoming tied up to a large extent by a number of major companies and to research being focussed on a small number of species and on GMOs. However, this commitment to GMOs has given rise to much criticism, involving the leaders of the “biotech oligopoly” in a crisis of legitimacy. Hence the efforts made by these parties over several years to legitimate their enthusiasm for GMOs both economically and politically.

It is to this “techno-political” work of legitimation that Pierre-Benoit Joly turns in the second part of his article. Thanks to the privatization of innovation and the globalization of activities, the big biotech multinationals are gradually winning acceptance for their view of the world, by way, among other things, of co-production of the regulation of the risks inherent in innovations (the emergence of a “soft law” lowering the level of mandatory constraint by states) and by intensive lobbying within public institutions and the establishment of “epistemic communities” (networks aimed at bending international law in their direction). Joly shows, lastly, how these players – and particularly Monsanto, which he studies more specifically here – are privatizing the notion of sustainable development in agriculture (by way of ethical charters, for example), so as to make their activities essential to its attainment. This is an “enlistment” operation that is very well described here, though it can still be countered when its workings are properly understood.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

GMOs: The European View

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are undeniably one of those subjects that do not provoke remotely the same reactions in North America as in Europe. Whereas the growing of GM crops is highly developed in the USA and arouses little or no controversy within American public opinion, this is an area in which Europeans are very cautious and even genuinely distrustful. As Daniel Boy shows in this article, drawing on Eurobarometer surveys of European citizens carried out over 15 years or so, there has never been a majority in the EU in favour of the development of GMOs for food production and, between 1996 and 2010, the proportion of those reluctant to see such a development actually increased. Above and beyond this general finding of a clear, sustained opposition among Europeans to GMOs in food, Boy shows the disparities that exist between the various European countries and presents reasons that may account for these differences.

Boy goes on to study the structure of European opinion in this field by sex, age and socio-professional category of the respondents, by their degree of “socialization” to science and their level of informedness. He also notes the importance of the level of knowledge of – and familiarization with – science in the attitude towards genetically modified foodstuffs. Lastly, Boy compares the attitudes of Europeans to GM foods with attitudes around animal cloning and the nanotechnologies, showing the great specificity of GMOs, which have been very distinctly and probably lastingly rejected (like animal cloning), thus blocking the development of this technological innovation in Europe. He nonetheless stresses that attitudes towards other innovations (such as nanotechnologies) in no way point towards similar failures in the future.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

Towards a Genetically Modified World? Possible Applications of the Biotechnologies

The debate that has been going on for several years, particularly in France, on the wisdom of introducing and developing genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has polarized opinion among the various stakeholders, producing great distrust within the public on the topic and often helping to cloud the issues within the field. This is one of the reasons why Futuribles decided to devote almost all of this March issue to GMOs, hoping thereby to cast light on the ins and outs of this question for its readers by providing very diverse points of view on – among other things – the economic, scientific, regulatory, sociological aspects of the question.

Before going into detail on this enormous range of questions, Cécile Désaunay offers a brief insight into what GMOs are, the state of research into them and the prospects they might open up in the medium-to-long term. After reminding us of the definition of GMOs and the upsurge of research in this area, she outlines the main existing applications and the lines of research that have found most favour with industry (in its aim, largely, of reducing both production costs and the use of pollutants), agriculture, the food sector and medicine. She emphasizes the risks inherent in this biotechnology so far as the environment and human or animal health are concerned, before stressing the obstacles the sector faces and the questions raised by the concentration of research among a handful of big companies. Working from this base and judging in accordance with their own priorities and values, any reader will be able, by referring to the very informative articles in this issue, to appraise the costs/benefits/risks of the large-scale use of GMOs.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

GMOs: Definitions, Promises and Disillusionments

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), which are a source of great distrust so far as French citizens are concerned, are also at the heart of important controversies in the scientific world. This special issue which Futuribles is devoting to the GM question attests to this, through articles that are at times highly positive and favourable to the development of GMOs. These are counterbalanced here by Jacques Testart and Frédéric Prat calling for greater caution in the manipulation of living material.

Reminding us what GMOs are, and of the scientific hopes that many have vested in them, Testart and Prat show how the scientific controversies are far from being settled and how slow the promises of the GMO advocates have been in coming to fruition. They criticize the tendency to regard the genome as a Meccano set that can be manipulated without any impact on plant and animal life. In their view, matters are quite different. By manipulating genes, by promoting genetic mutations without controlling the risks of their spreading to other plants or even jumping barriers between (plant and animal) species, some scientists are playing “sorcerer’s apprentice” and hiding behind (pseudo-)scientific arguments that may well, in the longer term, not be at all progressive. It is essential, argue Testart and Prat, to show caution in this area – particularly as alternatives exist to take agricultural research forward – and to fall in with a democratic approach based on giving the public complete and transparent information.

Revue

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

GMOs, Assets in a Sustainable Food Supply?

In this issue of Futuribles devoted to genetically modified organisms (GMOs), Pierre Feillet offers an analysis of the main advantages of GMOs when it comes to achieving a sustainable food supply for everyone on the planet. Without concealing a number of aspects that remain controversial, Feillet begins by reminding us of the historical process that made it possible, through multiple forms of innovation in agricultural practice and research, to reach the point where plants and animals can be genetically modified. He then outlines the extent, location and nature of GM crops throughout the world (10% of cultivated land), before detailing another highly controversial issue in this area: the presence, within the food chain, of products from animals fed on genetically modified crops. He also recalls the important role played by micro-GMOs in the food industry.

After this overview, Feillet gets down to detail on the contentious issue that is GMPs (genetically modified plants) through three key lines of questioning. Are GMPs dangerous to health? Are there environmental risks involved in growing them? Who profits by them? Lastly, he offers some perspectives for the future of GMOs, taking the view that biologists will continue to optimize and diversify the genetic inheritance of GMOs with the aim of improving the human food supply in the long term and convincing those who are still reluctant to use them (including the French) of their value.

Tribune européenne

Éducation - Géopolitique - Société, modes de vie

Distortions of History

As a result of the dramatic social consequences they produce, periods of economic crisis are – as history shows – often springboards for the rise of various forms of extremism and of inward-looking movements. It is reassuring, then, to see governments in Europe currently striving to stand together and attempt to face up collectively to the economic setbacks affecting most European countries. Just a few decades ago, national conflicts and resentments were so rooted in people’s minds that, at that time, such cooperation would have been unimaginable. That it exists attests to the work done since World War II to calm those tensions and enable a common reading of recent European history to emerge.

Jean-François Drevet brings this out clearly in this column, so as to forewarn those in Europe – or at the gates of Europe – who might be tempted by a form of historical falsification. After reminding readers briefly of what such falsifications of history have led to in Europe and of the emergence of a more calmly conceived history, he turns to various clarifications he regards as necessary in this area. These relate particularly to two countries which are tempted by a rather skewed reading of their national histories: Hungary and Turkey. He concludes on the importance of every country “coming to terms” with its national history, so that it is not endlessly carrying a hostile baggage that is out of phase with a united Europe.

Editorial

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

Science et société

Ce numéro de la revue Futuribles est intégralement consacré aux organismes génétiquement modifiés (OGM) et plus spécifiquement aux plantes génétiquement modifiées (PGM), à leurs vertus et dangers, réels et présumés, à l’exposé des points de vue et arguments de leurs partisans comme de leurs adversaires. Pourquoi avoir choisi de consacrer un numéro entier à cette question ? Parce que le développement et l’usage des OGM soulèvent des questions cruciales mais que le débat est trop souvent éludé ou excessivement ...

(35 more words)

Note de veille

Société, modes de vie

Le low cost, la nouvelle norme commerciale ?

Les consommateurs français sont se plus en plus nombreux à surveiller leurs dépenses et à rechercher des réductions pour certains achats. Si la tendance n’est plus tout à fait nouvelle, elle se confirme notamment avec l’extension permanente du secteur du low cost : les offres se multiplient et se diversifient, et concurrencent désormais le milieu de gamme.

Note de veille

Société, modes de vie

Le peak stuff est-il atteint ?

Après avoir atteint le peak oil, le pic de production de pétrole, les sociétés européennes ont-elles aussi dépassé le peak stuff, le pic de consommation ? Si le XXe siècle s’est caractérisé par une hausse continue de la consommation (énergies, ressources naturelles…) dans le monde, Chris Goodall, un chercheur écologiste britannique, constate qu’en Grande-Bretagne, depuis le début du XXIe siècle, la consommation de plusieurs matières premières et produits finis est en baisse [1]. Ce pays aurait atteint son pic ...

(853 more words)

Note de veille

Recherche, sciences, techniques - Société, modes de vie

La personnalisation d’Internet menace-t-elle sa neutralité ?

Et si les risques liés à la neutralité d’Internet n’étaient pas ceux que l’on croit ? Existe-t-il aujourd’hui un Internet universel, ou plutôt autant d’Internet qu’il y a d’internautes ? Les comportements des internautes, mais aussi des plus gros acteurs du Web, entraînent en effet une individualisation croissante du Net, qui pourrait se révéler dangereuse pour la circulation de l’information.

Analyse prospective

Institutions - Société, modes de vie

La fraude sociale : évaluations, définitions, paradoxes

La lutte contre la fraude sociale est devenue un objectif de première importance pour les responsables politiques comme pour les responsables des organismes gestionnaires de la protection sociale. Le sujet n’est pas simple. Il n’est pas aisé de définir, juridiquement, ce qu’est la fraude. Partant, il n’est pas facile d’en estimer l’ampleur. Surtout, de multiples controverses portent sur l’importance relative des fraudes sociales (qui seraient des fraudes « de pauvres ») et des fraudes fiscales ...

(93 more words)

Tribune européenne

Géopolitique - Institutions - Société, modes de vie

Will the “Arab Spring” Go off the Rails?

It was just over a year ago that the popular revolts in Tunisia and Egypt began which were to lead to the fall of the two major authoritarian regimes in North Africa and cause other peoples (the Libyans and the Syrians) to rise up in turn against the dictatorships in place there. Much was expected of that “Arab Spring”, supported as it was by various European countries (including France) – not least the establishment of genuine democracies in the countries concerned. However, democracy cannot be established by decree and democratic elections may bring to power leaders who are not greatly inclined to respect it. Is this what we are in danger of seeing in the countries of the southern Mediterranean, where the first democratic votes seem to be paving the way for Islamic regimes that might radicalize to a degree that is as yet unclear?

Jean-François Drevet raises that question here, briefly examining the situation of those Arab countries with links to the European Union and the prospects for the Islamists of developing their influence in those countries. Lastly, he shows how the new political situation in that region could change the Union’s diplomatic relations with those countries and particularly how the Union could attempt to forestall excessively radical developments.

Note de veille

Société, modes de vie

Égypte : l’influence grandissante du télévangélisme islamique

Depuis les années 2000, les talk show dans lesquels s’illustrent de jeunes prêcheurs islamiques, partisans d’un islam modernisé, emportent l’adhésion de nombreux téléspectateurs musulmans à travers le monde. Le discours de ces télévangélistes rompt, sur le fond et sur la forme, avec la prédication traditionnelle, et l’influence des nouveaux prêcheurs pourrait s’accroître dans les pays du « printemps arabe », actuellement en phase de transition politique.

Note de veille

Société, modes de vie

Le creusement des inégalités mondiales se renforce

La tendance n’est plus tout à fait nouvelle, mais elle se confirme : selon plusieurs études, au niveau mondial, les inégalités se sont creusées depuis 10 ans dans la majorité des pays. La croissance des inégalités constituerait l’un des 10 principaux risques pour les 10 années qui viennent selon les dirigeants d’entreprises du Forum économique mondial. Or, plusieurs facteurs contribuent à entretenir ce phénomène.

Note de veille

Société, modes de vie

Emplois du temps des Français : ralentissement et différenciation des rythmes de vie

Les Français consacrent de moins en moins de temps à travailler et de plus en plus à se détendre : c’est, en substance, ce qu’indique la dernière enquête « Emploi du temps » de l’INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), qui confirme aussi la différenciation croissante des emplois du temps selon les catégories de population considérées.

Bibliography

Économie, emploi - Recherche, sciences, techniques - Ressources naturelles, énergie, environnement - Société, modes de vie

“Twenty top predictions for life 100 years from now”

Pour imaginer ce que pourrait être le monde dans 100 ans, la BBC a demandé aux internautes de se livrer à un exercice de prospective : certaines prédictions ont ensuite été sélectionnées et décortiquées par deux prospectivistes (Ian Pearson et Patrick Tucker) selon leur degré de probabilité. Ainsi, il serait hautement probable que, dans 100 ans, nous puissions nous brancher sur ordinateur pour faire fonctionner notre cerveau plus vite : selon Ian Pearson, à l’horizon 2075, les habitants des pays développés ...

(218 more words)

Chapitre Société, modes de vie

Ce chapitre est extrait du Rapport Vigie 2016 de Futuribles International, qui propose un panorama structuré des connaissances et des incertitudes des experts que l'association a mobilisés pour explorer les évolutions des 15 à 35 prochaines années sur 11 thématiques.